Believe it or not, I can show you trends in the NBA that will increase your profit potential.
I’m not offering some betting system designed to trick the sportsbook, or “inside information” on player injuries or whatever. I’m not trying to sell you anything.
What I have are three trends in NBA performance that you should use to inform your next NBA wager.
Below are the descriptions of these trends, and a little information on how to dig around for yourself and develop your own trend-based strategy.
It’s no secret that most amateur bettors take the “over” when betting on game totals. This has something to do with people’s desire to see a high-scoring game – they can’t separate the gambling part of their brain from the part that’s a fan of the game. How can you use this trend to your advantage?
Last year in the NBA, games went over 619 times and under 676 times. Taking the under on every game would have produced a winning result 52.2% of the time – since the break-even point is 52.4%, you wouldn’t have made any money with that strategy, but you wouldn’t have lost all that much, either.
How do sharp bettors wager on game totals? NBA game totals are notoriously inflated just a touch as a reflection of the general public’s trend to dump money on the “over” result. The inflation is really a correction on the part of the book – they have to do it to make up for the idiot public. Generally speaking, smart money looks for teams and game situations that indicate an over or under result.
Look at the 2014-2015 NBA season, for example – last year, there were eleven teams that took part in games in which the “under” was a winner at least 52.4% of the time. If you’d placed a wager on the under on any game involving one of these eleven teams, you’d have broken even at least. On the other side of that coin, I can identify five teams involved in games that produced an “over” result at least 52.4% of the time. These stats are available online – it’s not hard to look them up.
Generally speaking, take the “under” on NBA games, unless your research indicates specifically that a game is likely to go over.
Joey Crawford Hates Home Teams
Joey Crawford is the closest thing to a celebrity referee that you’ll find. He’s been working NBA games for the better part of four decades, and he’s a near-constant presence during the playoffs. Crawford even challenged Tim Duncan to a fight a few years ago. He’s a nut, but he’s our nut, and (most of us) love him despite his strong personality.
But there’s a totally valid trend in Joey Crawford’s officiating that can’t be overlooked. Home teams perform poorly ATS when Crawford is in town. Since 2010, home teams have won no more than 53% of their games with Crawford at the line – that’s something, considering that between the years of 1988-1992, home teams were winning Crawford’s games about 72% of the time.
For one three-season span (2009-2012), home teams in games officiated by Crawford went just 70-95 ATS. In my earliest days of NBA betting, the 2001-02 season, the ATS record for home teams in Crawford’s games was downright disturbing – 25-52-2. Let’s face it – betting against home teams when Joey is calling the fouls is often a smart move.
If you’re smart, you’ll look for Crawford’s name in the ref assignments posted every morning. You can usually find them by lunch time, though I’m told some sites post them around 10 or 11 AM Eastern Time. Add a couple of points to the road team in your projections. Bet accordingly.
Overtime is an important aspect of NBA betting strategy. Everything changes when two NBA teams get an extra five minutes to play – it throws off game totals and weakens the book’s line in almost every category. If you could somehow work out ahead of time whether a game would go into overtime or not, you’d be in a good position to use trends to maximize profit.
During the last NBA season, for example, the game total result was “under” more than 54% of the time when a game did not go into overtime. You could tap into an even higher winning percentage by taking the “over” if you knew the game would go into at least one overtime. Overtime game totals were higher than the number set by the book almost 79% of the time.
I don’t know about you, but I can’t predict when a basketball game is going to go into OT with any kind of regularity. What we can both do, though, is use facts, figures, and betting trends, along with some help from expert analysis, to identify potential OT situations and take advantage of them.
Let’s use last season as an example – there were eighty-four OT games in the 2014-2015 NBA regular season. Of those 84, 66 produced an “over” result. It was an odd season for overtime games, in that about ten more such games took place compared to other seasons. It was also odd in that a large number of games involved at least two overtimes – sixteen regular season NBA contests went longer than a single overtime. In short, the 2014-2015 NBA season was absolutely rife with opportunities for OT trends wagering. For example, if you’d been able to identify and take the over on all eighty-four games, you’d have won at a rate of 78.57%, plenty for some serious profit.
How do you identify teams most likely to play in OT games? First, know that the best NBA teams will only play in 8 or 9 OT games during the regular season. Few teams ever play in no OT contests, but you’ll see a number of teams with just 1 OT game. There doesn’t appear to be a relationship between success and performance in OT games – last year’s champion Golden State Warriors played in just two regular season OT games. The easiest way to identify a potential OT game is to look for a game featuring two sides with a recent history of going into overtime.
I’m glad to share some powerful NBA betting trends with you – but now I hope you do something more with this information than remember to watch out for Joey Crawford and keep your eyes peeled for overtime game opportunities. The idea of this article is to get you to think for yourself about betting tactics, league statistics and trends, and your bankroll. Ideally, you’ll crunch some numbers and come up with your own powerful trend. In the meantime, feel free to use the above trends to maximize your potential profit.