Villanova vs Baylor 03/27/2021 March Madness Betting Odds, Preview and Pick

The Villanova Wildcats face the Baylor Bears in the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana on Saturday.

Villanova and Baylor are coming off double-digit wins over their respective opponents in the previous round. The no .5 Wildcats defeated no. 13 North Texas Mean Green 84-61 while the top-ranked Bears eliminated the no. 9 Wisconsin Badgers 76-63.

Villanova Wildcats

The Villanova Wildcats lost co-Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie to an MCL injury earlier this month but despite dealing with adversity in their first two games of the tournament, the Villanova Wildcats have easily reached the Sweet 16 for the 7th time in the last 20 seasons.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl led the way in their last game with 18 points while Jermaine Samuels and Justin Moore each scored 15 in the victory over the Mean Green. Caleb Daniels also added 11 points for the Wildcats who are surging at the right time despite playing without Gillespie. Head coach Jay Wright has a 30-12 record in the NCAA Tournament with two championships and with a week to prepare, he should have his team ready against Baylor.

Villanova ranks 83rd in the league in scoring at 75.8 points per game. They are just 263rd in rebounding at 34.0 boards grabbed per contest and are 64th in passing at 15.3 assists per game. The Wildcats are conceding 66.7 points per game this campaign.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Villanova

+230

Baylor

-275

Odds from BetOnline as of 03/24/2021

Baylor Bears

Despite losing to Oklahoma State in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament, the Baylor Bears were seeded 1st in the South Region. They have surely proved their worth in the first two rounds of the tournament with double-digit wins. With those wins, the Bears have advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017 and for the 5th time in the last dozen years.

Matthew Mayer came off the bench to score 17 points in the win against the Badgers. Jared Butler and Damion Mitchell each scored 16 to help the Baylor cause. The Bears’ suffocating defense limited Wisconsin to 29 points in the first half and forcing them to commit 14 turnovers while converting them to 16 points during the entire game. Offensively, the Bears made 8 out of 17 three-point attempts and committed only four turnovers in another methodical performance.

Baylor ranks 7th in the nation in scoring at 83.8 points per game this season. They are 15th in passing at 16.9 assists per game and are pulling down an average of 36.5 rebounds per contest. The Bears are forcing their opponents to score an average of 65.8 points per game this campaign.

Who Wins?

Villanova is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. The Wildcats are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played in March and 5-2 SU in their last seven games at a neutral site. Baylor is 18-2 SU in their last 20 games played. The Bears are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the Big East conference, and 7-1 SU in their last eight Saturday games.

The Wildcats have produced a pair of gritty wins in the first two rounds of the tournament. However, they will be facing their best opponent of the year in Baylor. The length on the Bears’ backcourt will be an issue for a Villanova team that is without their top passer and second-leading scorer.

This is the first time all-season where Villanova is the underdog and Jay Wright has a week to prepare for this game. I think the Wildcats will give the Bears a good fight. But in the end, the absence of Collin Gillespie will finally haunt them.

Prediction: Baylor Bears

Other Bets To Make

Villanova is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 NCAA tournament games. The Wildcats are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 neutral site games, 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as betting underdogs, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games with a winning SU record, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Big 12 Conference. Baylor is 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites in a neutral site.

What are the Spread Odds?

Villanova

+6.5 (-104)

Baylor

-6.5 (-116)

Odds from BetOnline as of 03/24/2021

The Villanova Wildcats have played some good basketball in the NCAA Tournament so far. They’ve shot the ball well from the outside to give the Baylor defense some issued. However, both wins were against 12th and 13th ranked teams. Baylor is coming off a nice win over Wisconsin where they displayed a suffocating defense to take control of the game early. I like the same defense to force Villanova into poor shot selections.

Prediction: Baylor -6.5

The total has gone under in five out of Villanova’s last seven games as the betting underdog. The under is 13-4 in their last 17 Saturday games, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage of at least .600. The under is also 6-2 in their last eight games away from home. The total has gone over in 12 out of the last 14 games played by Baylor. The Bears have seen the total go over in 12 out of their last 14 games as the betting favorite, 8-2 in their last 10 neutral site games, 6-2 in their last 8 NCAA tournament games, 6-0 in their last six games after an ATS win, and 11-1 in their last 12 after a straight up victory.

Villanova has scored at least 71 points in four out of their last five games played so despite playing without their second-leading scorer, putting up points hasn’t been much of a problem. Baylor meanwhile has scored at least 74 points in nine out of their last 10 games played and they are ranked 7th in the nation in scoring at 83.8 points per game this season. Give me the over for this game.

Prediction: Over 143.5

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