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The UTEP Miners take on the Florida Atlantic Owls at the Ford Center on Wednesday, March 10, 2021, in the second round of the Conference USA tournament.
Both teams head to this game on a roll with only one loss in each of their last five games played. UTEP gave Kansas a scare in their last game before falling eventually losing 62-67. That defeat ended a four-game winning streak for the Miners. Meanwhile, the Florida Atlantic Owls have won four straight games and are coming off back-to-back wins over lowly Middle Tennessee. This is the first game between these two teams this season.
UTEP Miners
The UTEP Miners gave the Kansas Jayhawks a scare in their season finale. Playing as 17-point underdogs, the Miners took a 15 point lead before Kansas came on strong and scored the final five points of the game to win 67-62. Despite the loss, UTEP haw won seven out of its last 10 games, including four out of their last five.
Solely Boum leads the Miners in scoring at 18.6 points per game while also grabbing 3.7 boards per contest. However, Boum is shooting just 38.6% from the field. 6-8 senior Bryson Williams leads the team in rebounding at 7.4 boards grabbed per contest while also scoring 15.1 points per game. Williams scored 23 points and grabbed 13 rebounds against Kansas.
UTEP is averaging 70.8 points per game, 215th in the nation. They are 241st in rebounding at 34.5 boards grabbed per contest and are 276th in passing at 12.1 assists per game. The Miners are conceding 68.2 points per game this season.
Florida Atlantic Owls
The Florida Atlantic Owls head to the tournament with a four-game winning streak. In their last game, the Owls handed the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 63-54 in their last game. The Florida Atlantic defense allowed Middle Tennessee to shoot just 29.3% from the field and 20.0% from the three-point region.
Jailyn Ingram leads the Owls in scoring at 12.5 points per game on the season. Ingram is also the team leader in rebounding at 6.1 rebounds per game while also averaging 1.4 turnovers per contest. Michael Forrest is also contributing 12.1 points per game. Forrest led the team in their last game with 16 points while Ingram added 6 points and 12 rebounds.
Florida Atlantic is ranked 44th in the nation in scoring at 78.6 points per game this season. They are 14th in rebounding at 40.8 boards grabbed per contest and are 100th in passing at 14.6 assists per game. The Owls are allowing their opponents to score an average of 66.3 points per game this season.
Who Wins?
UTEP is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Miners are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games played in March, and 4-1 SU in their last five Wednesday games. Florida Atlantic is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Owls are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Conference USA conference, and 2-0 SU in two games at a neutral site. Head to head, the Miners have won five out of their last nine meetings. However, Florida Atlantic is 3-0 SU in their last three head-to-head encounters.
Please Note
Both teams have won four out of their last five games but UTEP impressed more in their 62-67 loss to Kansas than Florida Atlantic’s last two victories which came against the worst teams in their conference. The Miners led Kansas by 15 early in the game and held the Jayhawks to tie with 22 seconds left in the game before Kansas scored the final five points of the game to win.
I think these two teams are a good match and I will pick the team that enters the game with better form. If UTEP plays the way they did against Kansas, then Florida Atlantic will have a tough time matching up the Miners. I’ll eat the chalk here and side with the favorites.
Prediction: UTEP
Other Bets To Make
The Miners are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played. UTEP is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Conference USA conference, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site. The Owls are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Florida Atlantic is 2-4 ATS in their last six Wednesday home games, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games at a neutral site, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss. Head to head, FAU is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played against UTEP.
UTEP
-3.5 (-105)
Florida Atlantic
+3.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/10/2021
Both these teams have similar records and it looks like that we have a good matchup in our hands. Florida Atlantic scores more points per game but advanced metrics say that UTEP has the better offense. KenPom rankings list UTEP at no. 159 in adjusted offense while Florida Atlantic is only at 202. This one should go to which team has the better offense and that’s UTEP. I’ll yield three-points to FAU and go with UTEP here.
Prediction: UTEP -3.5
The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Miners. The under is 5-2 in their last seven games after an ATS win. UTEP has seen the total go under in 30 out of their last 44 games after a straight up loss. The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 15 games played by FAU. However, the under is 4-1 in their last Wednesday games and 6-2 in their last eight games played in March. The Owls have seen the total go under in 15 out of their last 21 games in a neutral site. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last nine meetings between these two teams.
Over
137 (-110)
Under
+3.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/10/2021
The trends point to the under and the Miners are ranked 215th in scoring this season. However, the Owls are 44th in the entire nation when it comes to putting up points at 78.6 points per game, and combined, these teams score an average of 149.4 points per game this season. UTEP has put up at least 70 points in four out of their last five games played while Florida Atlantic has scored at least 71 in five out of their last seven outings. Both teams are on a roll because their scoring has picked up in recent games. Both will try to keep rolling with what has made them successful.
Prediction: Over 137
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