UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill - Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions

The pandemic continues to hurt the UFC. Saturday’s event at the promotion’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas lost its main event after Glover Texeira pulled out of his bout against Thiago Santos due to the COVID-19 virus. But despite the absence of that big fight, the event is solid from top to bottom and the new main event between female strawweights Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill is still worthy to headline the entire fight card. Top 10 women’s flyweight contenders Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee also square off in the main card while undefeated prospect Ottman Azaitar also makes an appearance in this event.

Let’s take a look at the five bouts in the main card of Saturday’s UFC event:

Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill

Michelle Waterson is the former Invicta FC atomweight champion. The 34-year old is the 8th ranked female strawweight fighter in the UFC. She joined the UFC in 2015 and has compiled an octagon record of 5-4. The Karate Hottie has a record of 17-8 with three knockouts and nine wins via submission. She stands 5-3 tall with a reach of 62 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Angela Hill is a former World Kickboxing Association champion. The 35-year old is the 13th ranked female strawweight in the UFC. Overkill fought for Invicta FC before joining the UFC in 2017. This former Invicta FC strawweight champion has an octagon record of 6-6 and an overall resume of 12-8 with five knockouts. Hill is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-3 tall and has a reach of 64 inches.

I like the Karate Hottie a lot because I’ve cashed in on her a couple of times before in the underdog role. She also has the submission skills that can put Hill in several uncompromising situations. However, Hill isn’t just the more powerful puncher between the two, she also has that pressure style which has bothered Waterson in her previous fights. Waterson will try to take this fight to the ground but to do that, she must eat some shots. Given Hill’s power and aggressive fighting style, she’s going to overwhelm Waterson and I won’t be surprised if she gets a stoppage win here.

Prediction: Angela Hill

Ottman Azaitar vs Khama Worthy

Ottman Azaitar fought for Fair FC and Brave CF before joining the UFC. The 30-year old Moroccan who fights out of Germany is undefeated in 12 bouts with nine knockouts and two wins via submission. Azaitar knocked out Teemu Packalen at UFC 242 in his UFC debut. He stands 5-8 tall with a reach of 71 inches and is a switch-hitter.

Khama Worthy fought for Pinnacle FC and 247 FC before he came to the UFC in 2019. The 33-year old from Pittsburgh has won his last seven fights, including six via stoppage. Worthy is 2-0 under the UFC and he has a record of 16-6 with 9 knockouts and three wins via submission. He is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-11 tall and has a reach of 74 inches.

Azaitar is known as the Bulldozer because of the way he fights and in his UFC debut, he lived up to the hype. The Moroccan is always looking for the knockout and I’m not sure if he has a backup plan if his opponent withstands his fury. Worthy losses have been early stoppages but if he weathers the initial storm, he should be able to read Azaitar and take over the fight after the first round. Worthy picks up the pace after the first round. He piles up the points, inflicts heavy damage.

Prediction: Khama Worthy

Roxanne Modafferi vs Andrea Lee

Roxanne Modafferi is the 7th ranked female flyweight in the UFC. This 37-year old known as the Happy Warrior has fought in several weight classes. She is a former ISKA karate champion and a submission grappler. Modafferi has a record of 24-17 with four knockouts and five wins via submission. She stands 5-7 tall with a reach of 69 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Modafferi is coming off a decision loss against Lauren Murphy last June.

Andrea Lee is a former kickboxer who is ranked 9th in the UFC women’s flyweight division. The 31-year old fought for Invicta FC and Legacy Fighting before coming over to the UFC in 2017. Lee was the inaugural LFA and Legacy FC flyweight champion. As an amateur, she was a golden gloves boxer. In MMA, her record is 11-4 with two knockouts and four wins via submission. She stands 5-6 tall with a reach of 69 inches and is an orthodox fighter.

Lee has the physical advantages here and she is pretty solid on the clinch. She has also developed a decent offense on the ground and her kickboxing is an advantage. However, we saw what happened when these two fought in 2014. Sure, Lee was still a raw talent back then but I’m not sure if the improvements she’s made will enable her to beat Modafferi. If Modafferi sticks to the game plan and wrestles Lee throughout the fight, she should be able to do enough damage to win on points. I was leaning to picking Modafferi here but in the end, I have more faith in Lee’s athleticism and firepower.

Prediction: Andrea Lee

Mike Rodriguez vs Ed Herman

Mike Rodriguez fought mostly for CES MMA before joining Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017 where he earned his UFC contract. The 31-year old Rodriguez is 2-2-1 inside the octagon and has an overall record of 11-4 with 9 knockouts and two submission victories. He stands 6-4 tall with a reach of 82 inches and is a southpaw fighter. Rodriguez is making a short turnaround as he knocked out Marcin Prachnio last month.

Ed Herman was a finalist at The Ultimate Fighter 3 and he also competed for Pancrase and Strikeforce. The 39-year old Herman has been with the UFC since 2006 and he is coming off back to back wins over Patrick Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov. Herman’s record is 25-14 with 7 knockouts and 13 wins via submission. This former SportFight light heavyweight champion is an orthodox fighter who stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 77 inches.

Rodriguez is the more superior fighter on the feet. He is more accurate and he has the reach advantage over Herman. Herman hasn’t fought in nearly a year. He’s been booked against a couple of opponents but none of those fights have materialized. Now he’s booked against Rodriguez who has experienced the smaller cage of the APEX facility before. I think the reach advantage and the smaller cage will enable Rodriguez to utilize his punching power.

Prediction: Mike Rodriguez

Billy Quarantillo vs Kyle Nelson

Billy Quarantillo fought for RFC, SOFC, AFC, and KOTC before he was discovered in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019. The 31-year old from Tampa, Florida is undefeated in two octagon appearances and he is coming off a win over Spike Carlyle last May. Quarantillo has a record of 14-2 with five knockouts and five wins via submission. He stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance.

Kyle Nelson is the former Elite 1 MMA featherweight champion. The 29-year old Canadian also challenged for the TXC MMA lightweight title before joining the UFC. Nelson lost his first two UFC bouts but is coming off a first-round TKO win over Polo Reyes in September 2019. Nelson has a record of 13-3 with five knockouts and five wins via submission. This switch hitter is 5-11 tall and has a reach of 71 inches.

Quarantillo is an excellent striker and he has the chops to give Nelson a lot of trouble here. Nelson isn’t hard to hit and he struggles with volume striking. However, I think that Nelson has a legit chance of winning this bout if he can take Quarantillo to the ground. Nelson has a good ability to finish his opponents and his wrestling looks better than his opponent’s. At +215, Nelson is the one underdog in this bout that I’m willing to take my chance on. I won’t blame you if you don’t agree. But I can’t pass on the plus money here.

Prediction: Kyle Nelson

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