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As 2018 closes out, we are not quite finished with compiling the highlight reels of the year. The UFC’s 25th anniversary coincided with some absolutely incredible moments, which included the return of Irish superstar Conor McGregor. On December 30, another MMA megastar will return in the form of the controversial former light heavyweight champion, Jon Jones.
Jones is one of those unique mercurial talents that somehow manages to attract frequent trouble. The Rochester, New York-native heads into this fight under another cloud of drama, with the finding of traces of the steroid Turinabol in his system. Given that “Bones” is returning from a ban due to a positive test for the same substance, fans are once again faced with wondering how he manages to get himself into such a mess.
Women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg will go face to face with bantamweight champion – and fellow Brazilian – Amanda Nunes. The two baddest females on the roster are bound to put on fireworks just one day before New Year’s Eve.
Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson II
The headline bout is undoubtedly the fight that most fans will be eagerly awaiting on Sunday night. Jones vs. Gustafsson II is a fight that probably would have happened a long time ago if Jones wasn’t, well, Jones. The American’s proclivity to attract controversy has seen him lose years of his career and he heads into this bout on his last, last chance. “Bones” will be looking to remind everyone just why he is regarded as the greatest to ever do it.
Sweden’s Gustafsson pushed Bones further than he had ever been in their testing – and now legendary – bout at UFC 165 all the way back in 2013. Fans clamored for a rematch and almost got it the following year, only for an injury to “The Mauler” getting in the way of it happening. Gustafsson finally has another bite at the apple and can become the first Scandinavian champion in the UFC with a win.
Let’s take a look at some bets, below:
Jones vs. Gustafsson II: The Winner
Jones -275
Gustafsson +210
The guys over at Betway have Jones as the clear favorite. In fact, this applies to almost every other bookie out there. Jones has never been beaten in his career and has absolutely dominated almost every opponent he has ever faced. At -275, the odds appear to be in favor of a convincing performance for Jones.
Gustafsson is regarded as Jones’ toughest opponent in the UFC to date. The Swede was the first man to ever take “Bones” down and consistently landed strikes on the former champion in ways that no one else could. Given that he is built similarly to Jones and is as tough as they come, his odds to beat Jones are pretty good. Then again, this is Jon Jones we are talking about and a win for Gustafsson would still be a shock.
Prediction: Jon Jones to win at -275
Total Rounds
Over (4.5) -120
Under (4.5) -110
Sticking with Betway again for this one, it appears that there is not much difference at all between the odds when betting if the fight will go over or under 4.5 rounds. Jones has 4 unanimous decision victories in his last 5 bouts, while Gustafsson has 3 wins – with 2 stoppages and one unanimous decision in his last 5.
When looking at the first bout, it was evident that both men were a good match. That fight was over 5 years ago, however, and a few things have changed since then. The Swede lost two fights – one to Daniel Cormier and another to the now-retired Anthony Johnson – and it is arguable that Jones would have beaten Johnson (while he beat Cormier twice).
Of course, Jones’ last bout – against Cormier – was overturned to a No Contest. Gustafsson looked very impressive in his last two, against Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira, but will be facing a much higher caliber of opponent. Still, I can see Gustafsson being tough enough to last the full 5 and believe that the Over bet is the best one here.
Prediction: Over 4.5 Rounds at -120
Round Betting
If you are the type of bettor that enjoys round betting, there are some very tempting prices below, courtesy of 888Sport. While bookies have the bout going the distance – with both Jones and Gustafsson promising to finish the fight – considering an early finish might be a good idea. Both men respect each other, clearly, but there is a backstory in this fight and a lot of history that could influence things on fight night.
The smart pick here is Jones to win by decision. He is the better fighter and has just one finish in his last 5 bouts, as previously mentioned. Gustafsson is tough and will likely be able to hang in there until the final bell sounds. However, if you are looking for a big win, Jones to end the bout in the 5th carries odds of +1600 and these are certainly worth a shot.
If you are backing Gustafsson for a shock win, you will be putting your money on the Swede to do what no one has ever been able to do against Jones. Why not push the boat out and at least consider some of the mammoth odds available for “The Mauler” to shake up the world? For example, a 4th round finish for Gus will earn you a mighty +2500 for your troubles.
Jones, Jon – Round 1 +500
Jones, Jon – Round 2 +600
Jones, Jon – Round 3 +850
Jones, Jon – Round 4 +1200
Jones, Jon – Round 5 +1600
Jones, Jon by Decision +210
Gustafsson, Alexander – Round 1 +1400
Gustafsson, Alexander – Round 2 +1600
Gustafsson, Alexander – Round 3 +2000
Gustafsson, Alexander – Round 4 +2500
Gustafsson, Alexander – Round 5 +3300
Gustafsson, Alexander by Decision +333
Prediction: Jones by Decision at +210
Method of Victory
One of the main things that fans will be mulling over is just how this fight will end. There are many possible endings in this bout and 888Sport have a nice variety of bets to cater to the more probable of the ways it will end.
To Win by Finish (KO, TKO, Sub and any other stoppage)
Gustafsson, Alexander
Yes +600
No +1250
Jones, Jon
Yes +120
No -159
Beating Jones will be an unbelievable achievement for Gustafsson. It is very difficult to see it happening, however, and it would be jaw-dropping to watch “The Mauler” finish “Bones.”
On the other hand, it would not be shocking at all to see Jones walk away with a win by way of a KO or stoppage. The odds are, unsurprisingly, with a win for Jones on the judges’ scorecards. It appears highly likely that this will be the way that Jones finishes the fight, standing in the center of the Octagon awaiting those scorecards.
Prediction: Jones not to win by finish at -159
Winning method
Jones, Jon by Decision +210
Jones, Jon by KO, TKO or DQ +240
Jones, Jon by Submission +350
Gustafsson, Alexander by Decision +333
Gustafsson, Alexander by KO, TKO or DQ +650
Gustafsson, Alexander by Submission +1400
Once again, it is very difficult to look past a decision win for Jones. Other than the victory over Cormier at UFC 214 in 2017, he has not been known for his finishes inside the Octagon for a long time. Even with the world-renowned Jackson Wink MMA team behind him, “Bones” will have ring rust to shake off, too, given that he has fought just 5 times since September 2013.
Is it inconceivable to see Jones knocking Gustafsson out, or even winning by submission? Not at all. One of the greatest talents the 31-year-old has is his ability to adapt inside the cage and pull off the unexpected. With the drive of wanting to prove everyone wrong driving him in this bout, in addition to the big occasion, Jones can undoubtedly pull of something special for fans on Sunday night.
Those who favor a victory for Gustafsson will more than likely gravitate to a win on the judges’ scorecards. We have never seen Jones in trouble before – never mind being close to losing by knockout or submission – so it is a safe bet that he will at least make it to the end of round 5. If Gustafsson has done enough to snatch the win away from Jones in those 25 minutes, we could be looking at a champion. It seems unlikely that he will stop the UFC’s most controversial star, however.
Prediction: Jones by Decision at +210
The Other Big Fights on the Night
Below, I will look at the other big fights on the night. The good people over at BetOnline.ag have provided some decent markets here for the rest of the main card.
Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes +195
Cris Cyborg -230
There is no doubt in my mind that this fight is going to deliver. Well, for as long as it lasts, that is. Cris Cyborg is the most dominant women’s MMA fighter of all time and has made light work of almost everyone who has ever step foot inside of the cage with her. As the most avoided women’s fighter, we have to give props to Nunes for taking the bout, especially given the size difference between the two.
Nunes has been the standout star of the 135-pound women’s division for some time now. Since her upset victory over Miesha Tate at UFC 200, she has gone on to end the career of UFC golden girl Ronda Rousey, as well as soundly beating Valentina Shevchenko (for the second time) and Raquel Pennington. Nunes has power and a comprehensive all-around game but there is no doubt that this will be her biggest challenge to date.
Cris Cyborg has lost one fight in her career and that was her very first pro bout back in May 2005. Yes, that is close to 14 years. Most of her 20 wins have ended in KO/TKO and it looks likely that this one will go the same way. While Holly Holm pushed her to the judges’ scorecards at UFC 219 this time last year, her style was simply difficult for Cyborg to work out.
Nunes is strong enough to give Cyborg trouble for the first round or two, but there will invariably be one woman with her arms up in victory at the end of the bout. Cyborg is too strong, has an excellent pressure game, and will simply swarm Nunes with heavy shots and clinches before draining her come the midway part of the fight. Expect a stoppage victory here.
Prediction: Cyborg to win at -230
Over/Under
Over (2.5) -165
Under (2.5) +135
I can see this fight ending around the midway part. I believe that Cyborg has enough to stop this one earlier, however.
Prediction: Under 2.5 at +135
Carlos Condit vs. Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa -170
Carlos Condit +145
It is surprising to see one-time fan favorite Carlos Condit suffer such a fall from grace. The former UFC welterweight interim champ is 1-4 in his last five bouts and looks desperately close to being cut from the promotion with another loss. You have to ask yourself if Condit even cares at this point, given that he simply looks as though he would rather be doing other things than fighting a lot of the time.
Chiesa is moving up from lightweight and has suffered an odd couple of years. Losses to Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis saw him fall down the UFC lightweight pecking order and his ongoing legal case against Conor McGregor has earned him the ire of the Irishman’s fanbase. Still, he has a chance here to reinvent himself and get the ball rolling at 170 with a win over Condit.
Condit is still capable of catching any opponent out with his solid kickboxing but he will be taken down by Chiesa, that’s for sure. If Condit can answer Chiesa’s wrestling, he could win this bout. Heaven knows he needs the win. Hell knows Chiesa needs it, too.
Prediction: Condit to win at +145
Over/Under
Over (2.5) -108
Under (2.5) -122
I can see this one going the distance. Both men should be desperate for the win here so expect a war of attrition that takes the bout over the 2.5 round mark.
Prediction: Over 2.5 Rounds at -108
Ilir Latifi vs. Corey Anderson
Corey Anderson +123
Ilir Latifi -143
The great thing about this fight is that both men can genuinely push themselves into title-shot contention with a win. As such, this fight will have a lot at stake. Corey Anderson is favored to take the win and certainly has the momentum behind him following two impressive wins over Glover Teixeira and Patrick Cummins. Anderson does look as though he is improving all the time and will be hopeful of landing his third win in a row.
Latifi is the older man (by six years) but certainly has the better record. He is 4-1 in his last five bouts and ended Ovince Saint Preux’s impressive run of three victories in a row – including one over Anderson – to make it 2-0 in his last two bouts. Latifi is definitely the favorite here, even if “MMA math” doesn’t always apply.
Prediction: Latifi to win at -143
Over/Under
Over (2.5) -140
Under (2.5) +110
I can see Latifi ending this one in the first two rounds. The odds of +110 are definitely appealing in this case. Prediction: Under 2.5 Rounds at +110
Chad Mendes vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski +128
Chad Mendes -148
Chad Mendes is as tough as they come. Despite losing to Conor McGregor for the UFC interim featherweight title in 2015, he earned a lot of respect given that he had little time to prepare for the bout. Mendes just might have beaten the Irishman on that night if he had the right conditioning and the UFC would have been a completely different promotion if that had happened.
Nonetheless, Mendes will be tested by the very tough Volkanovski, who has notched up an impressive 5-0 in his first five fights in the promotion. Mendes has incredible wrestling and impressive punching power and will undoubtedly be the best opponent the Australian has ever faced. If Volkanovski is to win, he will need every last weapon in his arsenal to do so.
Prediction: Mendes to win at -148
Over/Under
Over (2.5) -155
Under (2.5) +125
I believe that this one will be a stoppage win for Mendes. I like Volkanovski, but Mendes does have that killer instinct and is one of the most electrifying fighters at 145 pounds on his day.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Rounds at +125
Building a Parlay?
Sometimes, one bet just isn’t enough on the fights. For those who have plans to watch the full card, it is probably worth considering placing a parlay bet. There are many ways you can do this, but the most popular way for UFC 232 is to simply pick a winner in two or more of the fights above.
If you are considering a parlay bet on the fights, feel free to take a look at mine. I have added the odds from these selections above, for the purpose of example, but keep in mind that the odds will differ depending on the bookmaker you are using:
Jon Jones to win at -275
Cris Cyborg to win at -230
Carlos Condit to win at +145
Ilir Latifi to win at -143
Chad Mendes to win at -148
A $100 parlay bet on the selections above returns $1364.93, including stake.
Final Thoughts
Regardless of what bets you place at UFC 232, the night does promise to be a good one. Can Jones become the light heavyweight champion once again, or will Alexander Gustafsson become a true legend in Sweden and beyond. Will Cyborg fell Nunes, or will another giant be slain? I sure can’t wait to find out.
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