The Minnesota Twins will visit the Cleveland Indians for a four-game set beginning Monday at Progressive Field.
Minnesota is 59-77 on the season and they are just 27-41 away from home this season. The Twins are at the bottom of the American League Central division team standings right now and are out of playoff contention. Minnesota has dropped four in a row and was swept by the Cubs and Rays in a pair of two-game sets.
Cleveland is 68-66 on the season and 35-30 at home this year. The Indians are currently in second place in the AL Central division team standings but are 9.5 games behind the leaders Chicago White Sox. Cleveland is also 8.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the second wild card spot in the American League.
Minnesota leads their regular season series 7-5 and has won four out of their last five head-to-head meetings this season.
The Minnesota offense has been slumping and the team has won just thrice in their last 10 road games. Minnesota ranks just 16th on the season in scoring at 4.51 runs per game. Jose Polanco has a .314 batting average against the Indians and has 7 RBI in 35 at-bats. The 28-year old has delivered 82 RBI and 26 home runs this season and has a very solid .840 OPS. However, Miguel Sano is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury.
Rookie Bailey Ober will open on top of the mound for Minnesota. The right-hander will be making his 17th stat of the season. He is 2-2 on the year with an ERA of 3.98 and a WHIP of 1.21 in a total of 74.2 innings pitched. In his last outing, Ober limited the Detroit Tigers to two runs in six innings while picking up the win.
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/06/2021
The Indians rank 17th in the majors in scoring at 4.47 runs per game. Their pitching staff is also ranked 17th and they have a team ERA of 4.35 on the season. Jose Ramirez has been huge for the Indians this season with 32 home runs and 87 RBI with an OPS of .898. Ramirez has six RBI and an OPS of .809 against the Twins this season. In his last eight games played, Ramirez has produced three home runs and six RBI.
Logan Allen will get the stat for the Indians in this series opener. Allen’s had a tough season with a record of 1-5 and an ERA of 6.62 and a WHIP of 1.42 in 35.1 innings pitched. However, Allen has been stellar in his last two starts while conceding only two earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched against the Royals in his last outing. Allen’s only start against the Twins this season was a disaster with six runs allowed in a mere 1.1 innings pitched.
Minnesota is 1-4 in their last five games played. The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games against the American League, 3-8 in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record, 2-7 in their last nine games on the road, 1-4 in their last five games as road favorites, 1-7 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning record, and 0-4 in their last five games when the total is set between 9-10.5.
Cleveland is 5-2 in their last seven games and 6-3 in their last nine games played on the road. The Indians are 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a losing record, 4-1 in their last five games against the American League Central, and 114-54 in their last 168 home games against an opponent with a losing record.
Cleveland is playing well right now while Minnesota is struggling again. The Twins have lost four out of their last five games including twin losses to the Cubs.
Minnesota’s pitching staff has allowed 21 runs in their last three games played and that should be bad news against a Cleveland team that is hitting really well right now.
Logan Allen hasn’t been the best Cleveland pitcher this season but he has been terrific in his last two starts, allowing only three runs ( including two earned ) in a total of 12.2 innings pitched, including a one-run pitching performance against the Boston Red Sox.
Bailey Ober allowed only five hits with two runs in six innings pitched during their 3-2 win against Detroit last Monday. However, he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings in a 3-1 loss to the Indians last August 17th.
Minnesota’s bats have been struggling too, as they have scored fewer than four runs in seven out of their last 10 games.
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The under is 5-1 in the Twins’ last six games against the American League Central Division. The under is also 5-0-1 in their last six games played on grass, 5-1 in their last six games as betting favorites, 4-0 in their last four Game 1 of a series, 6-2 in their last eight games as road favorites, and 6-1-1 in their last eight games played overall.
The total has gone under in three out of the last five games played by the Indians. The total has also gone under in four out of their last six games against the American League Central Division. The under is 4-1 in their last five games when the total is set between 9.0 to 10.5.
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/06/2021
I’m leaning towards the under in this matchup because as stated earlier, the Twins have struggled at the plate as of late and Logan Allen is having a fine stretch right now.
On the other hand, Minnesota starter Ober has an ERA of 2.30 in his last five starts while the Indians have averaged 4.2 runs per game in their last 12 games played against the Twins.
Neither team has been a standout scoring team this season and although the starters aren’t their best arms, both are currently having good runs. This should be a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Under 9