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Week 6 of NCAA Football action kicks off with an American Athletic Conference matchup between the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the Houston Cougars on Thursday, October 4, 2018 at the TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Tulsa currently ranks 5th in the Western Division of the conference at 1-3 while Houston currently occupies the 4th slot with their 3-1 record. Both teams didn’t play last week but Tulsa is coming off a 17-31 loss to Temple last September 20 while Houston is fresh off a 70-14 blowout win over the Texas Southern Tigers.
Three Straight Losses
After winning their season opener, Tulsa has lost three games in a row to fall to 1-3 on the season. In week 4, the Golden Hurricane lost the Owls despite having a 403-300 advantage in total offense and winning the first down battle 32-16. What did them against Temple was their five turnovers which led to a pair of defensive scores by Temple.
Quarterback Luke Skipper is completing 58.6% of his passes for a total of 716 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions. Skipper threw three interceptions against Temple in Week 4 and he has thrown one or no touchdown in 10 out of his 11 career games played.
Tulsa’s running game is led by Shamari Brooks who has amassed a total of 375 rushing yards with four touchdowns in 92 carries. Corey Taylor II also has 259 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns while Jarion Anderson has a team high 16 receptions for 134 yards and Keenen Johnson has 180 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Tulsa vs Houston 10/04/18
Moneyline Odds: Tulsa +635, Houston -850
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/03/18
Playing Their Conference Opener
While Tulsa looks to even their conference record at 1-1, the Houston Cougars will be playing their conference opener in this contest. Like the Golden Hurricane, the Cougars drew a bye last week after pulverizing Texas Southern in their most recent outing. Houston is currently undefeated at home and will look to extend that streak against the Golden Hurricane.
D’Eriq King threw for three scores against Texas Southern and he has been impressive this season, completing 62.7% of his passes for a total of 1,197 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and only one interception. He has thrown for three or more touchdowns in five out of his last eight games played. King has also rushed 107 yards this season with five scores.
Patrick Carr leads Houston’s ground attack with 201 rushing yards and one touchdown in 32 carries. Baylor transferee Terence Williams has 142 yards on the ground with one touchdown in 25 carries. Keith Corbin has caught 17 passes for 286 yards and four scores while Courtney Lark has 18 catches and 2 touchdowns for 224 yards.
Who Wins?
Tulsa is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games and 0-5 SU in their last five road games. The Golden Hurricane is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the Cougars and are just 2-4 SU in their last six games playing on the road versus Houston. On the other hand, Houston is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and an impressive 22-3 in their last 25 games at home.
Houston’s explosive offense has moved the football almost at will this season. Behind D’Eriq King (1197 passing yards), Patrick Carr (201 rushing yards) and Marquez Stephenson (391 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns), they are second in the nation in scoring at 52.3 points per game. They will be a problem for Tulsa, who is ranked just 88th in the nation in points allowed per game.
In summary, not only does Houston have the better team overall. Their offense will be too much for the Tulsa defense. This is an easy win for the home team.
We’re picking Houston to beat Tulsa on 10/04/18 but at -850, there isn’t much value in their moneyline odds. I’d rather bet on the other odds for this contest.
Other Bets To Make
Tulsa is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Cougars and are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus Houston. The Cougars meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games but their head to head trends point to Tulsa here.
Tulsa vs Houston 10/04/18
Spread Odds: Tulsa +18 (-113), Houston -18 (-107)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/03/18
Sure, the Cougars’ wins have come via blow out but their opponents had a combined record of 4-10 ATS. The Golden Hurricane aren’t winning this season but their losses have come by an average of 10 points and eight out of their last 11 losses were by 10 points or fewer so while they are losing games, they aren’t getting blown away. In fact, Tulsa has covered 13 out of their last 18 games where they were double digit underdogs while Houston is only 4-4 as double digit favorites. Don’t forget too that Tulsa beat Houston last year 45-17. I think the Cougars win but the Golden Hurricane will manage to cover.
Prediction: Tulsa +18
The total has gone under in Tulsa’s last five games on the road and under in five out of their last seven games versus Houston. The total has gone under in 15 out of Houston’s last 22 games and under in 9 out of their last 12 games at home. Head to head, the total has also gone under in 4 out of their last 6 meetings.
Tulsa vs Houston 10/04/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 70.5 -110, Under 70.5 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/03/18
The trends point to under but Houston is averaging 52.3 points per game this season while Tulsa is averaging just under 25 points per game. Tulsa is coming off its best offensive game of the season where they put up 38 points. We may not expect them to win this game but I believe they will put up a fight and put points on the board.
Prediction Over 70.5
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