Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/19/20 NFL Betting Odds and Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans in the 2020 AFC Championship Game on January 19, 2020, at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs came from behind to defeat the Houston Texans 51-31 in a high-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Titans continued their giant-slaying ways with a stunning 28-12 upset over the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens in their own divisional playoff game. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10 and they also own a 2017 win over Kansas City in the Wild Card round of the 2017 playoffs.

Cinderella Run

The Tennessee Titans’ Cinderella run continues. After dethroning the defending Super Bowl champions New England Patriots in round one of the 2019 NFL Playoffs, the Titans proceeded to upset the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the postseason.

The Tennessee offense has been mostly about Derrick Henry. The 26-year old running back has rushed for a total of 377 yards in the first two rounds of the playoffs and he did so against two of the best defenses in the league in New England and Baltimore. Rookie A.J. Brown caught 1,051 yards during the regular season but the Titans’ #1 receiver has been limited to only 13 receiving yards in his last two games.

Defense has been the Titans’ calling card in the playoffs as they limited Tom Brady to 13 points in the wild card round and Lamar Jackson to 12 points in their next outing. During the regular season, Tennessee ranked 12th against the rush and 24th against the pass. They are 12th in the league in scoring defense at 20.7 points per game allowed.

Explosive Offense

The Kansas City Chiefs turned it on in their divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans. After trailing 0-24, the Chiefs came from behind to win 51-31 in an explosive display of offense. The Chiefs lost the possession time battle 25-35 but with Mahomes leading the way, Kansas City doesn’t need too much time to score.

Mahomes threw for a total of 4,031 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions. The 2019 MVP was spectacular against the Texans and he has not thrown an interception in his last six games played. Travis Kelce caught 10 passes for 134 yards while Damien Williams rushed for 74 yards for the Chiefs who have topped 30 points in their last two games played and who have scored at least 23 in their last 12 outings.

The Kansas City defense ranked 8th against the pass and 26th versus the run. They were ranked 7th in defense at 19.7 points per game allowed while scoring 28.2 points per game, 5th in the league this season. The Chiefs’ defense isn’t as well-known as their offense, their defense was key against Houston, producing eight hits and five sacks against Deshaun Watson.

Who Wins?

Tennessee is 7-2 SU in their last nine games played. The Titans are 7-3 SU in 10 road games played this season and 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the AFC Conference. Kansas City is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Chiefs are 6-3 SU in nine home games played this year, and 6-0 SU in their last six games against the AFC Conference. Head to head, the Titans are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs and Tennessee has won the last four meetings between these two teams.

The Titans have relied heavily on their running game so far. Running back 0Derrick Henry has played like the MVP of the postseason after two rounds. Henry ran for 182 yards against the New England defense and then rampaged for 195 against an equally good Baltimore defense.

Kansas City has won seven straight games and their last win was perhaps their most spectacular. Down 0-24, Patrick Mahomes fueled a furious rally that sent the Chiefs to the AFC Conference championship via a 51-31 win. The reigning MVP threw five touchdown passes for a total of 321 passing yards against the Houston Texans.

These teams played in Week 10 and Tennessee came up victorious over Kansas City to the tune of 35-32. But that game was close throughout and it could have gone either way in the end. However, with what they have shown in so far in the playoffs, Kansas City’s offense looks more balanced and versatile. Mahomes threw a mix of short and medium-range passes that baffled the Texans. He is going to weave the same magic again on Sunday.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

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Other Bets to Make

The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played. Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on the road. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played. Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Chiefs. Tennessee is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games played against Kansas City.

Kansas City looked brilliant after falling behind by 24 points against the Texans. Not only did they establish a couple of records along the way, but they also covered the -10 spread with a 20 point win. On the other hand, the Titans have been impressive in their giant-killing spree but their offense has looked predictable with Derrick Henry taking a heavy load in their two playoff games. If the Chiefs defense continues to force turnovers, I think this will be a double-digit win for Kansas City.

Prediction: Chiefs -7.5

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The total has gone over in nine out of the last 12 games played by the Titans. Tennessee has seen the total go under in six out of their last nine games against the AFC Conference. The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by Kansas City. The under is 4-2 in the Chiefs’ last six Sunday games but the over is 4-1 in their last five games against the AFC South Division. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last nine meetings between these two teams.

The Titans have seen the total average 51.33 in nine out of their last 12 games played while the Chiefs have hit an average of 52.57 points in five out of their last seven home games. The Kansas City offense looked unstoppable against Houston and they displayed a deadly mix of short and long passes that should be able to breach the Tennessee defense. I’m looking at a high scoring match here.

Prediction: Over 53

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