Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets 04/01/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

Two teams who are fighting for the 6th seed in the Western Conference meet on Friday night at the Pepsi Center when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Denver Nuggets.

Minnesota has fallen three games back from Denver after losing four out of their last five games played. The Timberwolves head to Denver after back-to-back blowout losses to the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors. Minnesota is just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played and they need to win out while hoping the Nuggets drop multiple games the rest of the way.

Denver meanwhile has won three straight games to take control of the 6th seed. The Nuggets have also forced a tie with the Utah Jazz for the lead in the Northwest Division and if Utah continues to struggle, Denver could even get to the 4th spot as division champions. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and have won their last three games played, including a 125-118 win over the Indiana Pacers the last time out.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves suffered their second straight loss to the Raptors via a 23-point blowout. Minnesota got an early 10 point lead but allowed Toronto to outscore them in each of the last three quarters to beat the Wolves.

Anthony Edwards had a big game with 24 points while Karl Anthony-Towns had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds. All five of Minnesota’s starters scored in double digits as D-Lo added 13 while Patrick Beverley and Jared Vanderbilt scored 10 each.

The Wolves are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 115.2 points per game. Minnesota is also ranked 13th in rebounding at 44.6 boards grabbed per contest and 7th in passing at 25.5 assists per game. The T-Wolves are 22nd in scoring defense at 112.4 points per game allowed.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Timberwolves

+128

Nuggets

-148

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/01/2022

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets beat the Pacers last Wednesday to pick up their third straight win. Denver raced out to an early 43-15 lead but the Pacers rallied and outscored the nuggets 76-48 in the second and third quarters to make it a game. However, Denver got its bearings back in the 4th period and pulled off the win.

Nikol Jokic had another big game with 37 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists to lead the Nuggets. Nah’shon Hyland added 20 points off the Denver bench while Will Barton had 18 to help the Denver cause.

Denver ranks 10th in the NBA in scoring at 112.0 points per game scored this season. The Nuggets are 17th in rebounding at 44.1 boards grabbed per contest and are 3rd in passing at 27.6 assists per game. They have the NBA’s 13th top-scoring defense at 109.5 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

The Wolves are 1-4 SU in their last five games played. Minnesota is 18-21 SU in 39 road games played this season, 29-20 SU in 49 games against the Western Conference, 11-13 SU in 24 road games against Western Conference opponents, and 9-0 SU in their last nine games against the Northwest Division.

The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Denver is 22-15 SU in 37 home games played this season, 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against the Western Conference, and 14-8 SU in 22 home games against teams from the Western Conference.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Timberwolves.

With 46 wins and still two games against the Lakers and one against San Antonio, the Nuggets can win 50 games this season even without their second and third best players playing this season. But they have to beat the T-Wolves first.

Minnesota is three games behind Denver for the 6th seed and while that is still mathematically possible, it’s unlikely given how good Jokic has been playing as of late for Denver. With the season about to close, Jokic has overtaken Embiid on top of the MVP odds boards with one monster performance after another.

The Timberwolves look like they will be the 7th seed in the West and will play the Clippers in the play-in tournament. But with a favorable schedule, look for them to fight to the death here and hope to close in on the Nuggets.

Minnesota has lost four of five and isn’t in a good rhythm right now. Denver has won three straight and is rolling with Jokic dominating. The Wolves have KAT to match with Jokic but Denver’s playing much better as a team right now so it will take more than stopping Jokic to win this.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Other Bets to Make

Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as betting underdogs, 9-19-2 ATS in their last 20 Friday games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played. The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played at home, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as betting favorites, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a straight-up win, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.

What are the Spread Odds?

Timberwolves

+3 (-112)

Nuggets

-3 (-108)

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/01/2022

The Nuggets have outscored the Timberwolves by an average margin of 4.3 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, winning eight of those games. Denver’s last six wins have come by at least four points and the Nuggets’ offense is rolling right now at 48.1% from the field and 35.4% from deep.

Minnesota’s last three losses have been by a total margin of 54 points with the last two losses by at least a 20-point margin. The Wolves are having a great season but are in a tough stretch right now. They have shot just 45.5% from the field during this stretch and will be facing a Denver defense that is ranked 13th in the NBA in scoring defense.

Look for the T-Wolves to try and get Towns going but with Jokic on the other end, KAT’s offense could be distracted by having to stop the MVP betting favorite on the opposite end of the court. Another big night from Jokic should get Denver the cover. The Nuggets are 4-2.

Prediction: Nuggets -3

The over is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games on the road against an opponent with a winning home record of better than .600. The over is also 4-1 in their last four road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 6-2 in their last eight games as betting underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight Friday games, 9-3 in their last 12 games when playing on one day rest, 16-6 in their last 16 games as underdogs, 20-8 in their last 28 games after an ATS loss, 40-19 in their last 59 road games, and 37-16 in their last 53 games overall.

The total has gone over in six out of the Nuggets’ last eight games played. The over is 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win, 6-2 after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-2 after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-2 in their last eight games as betting favorites, 6-2 in their last eight games when playing on one day rest, 19-7-2 in their last 28 home games, 13-5-2 in their last 20 games as home favorites, 12-5-1 in their last 18 home games against an opponent with a losing road record, and 12-5 in their last 17 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

Minnesota is the 5th highest-scoring team in the NBA this season while the Nuggets are 10th. The Nuggets have scored 120 or more points in half of their last eight games played, including twice in their last four. Denver is coming off a 130-point performance against the Pacers in their last game and they have gone over 236 points thrice in their last five games.

The Nuggets are 13th in the league in scoring defense but with Minnesota ranked just 20th in the same statistical category, points shouldn’t be too hard to find here for the Nuggets with Jokic scoring and passing to open teammates.

The Wolves are the Top OVER team in the NBA at 45-32 this season while the Nuggets are 42-33-3 in favor of the OVER. This one looks like it has the makings of a track meet. I will have to go with the over.

Prediction: Over 242.5

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