Thursday's NBA Games - Odds, Predictions and Picks for 2/21/19

Hard court actions resumes on Thursday night as the NBA’s midseason break comes to an end. Six games are on the deck for 2/21/19 and we are going to cover four games worth your betting time.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

The Miami Heat travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia 76ers at the Well Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

The Heat are one of five Eastern Conference teams separated by just three games and fighting for the final three playoff spots in the conference. At 26-30, Miami is currently tied with the Detroit Pistons for the final playoff spot in the East. With each game from hereon becoming important, the Heat hope to pull of an upset in Philadelphia to keep their playoff bid alive

Josh Richardson leads the Heat in points and steals with 17.6 points and 1.1 steals per game. Hassan Whiteside is having a double-double season with 12.8 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. Dwyane Wade’s final season is netting him 14.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while Justise Winslow is contributing 12.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per outing.

The Heat rank 3rd in the league in scoring defense at 105.7 points per game allowed. They are also 7th off the glass with 47.0 rebounds per game and also rank 19th overall in passing at 23.8 assists per game. Miami is the 4th lowest scoring team in the league with their 105.1 points per game scored.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Odds

The Philadelphia 76ers hope that the extended break gave them enough time to jell with Tobias Harris and the rest of their new recruits. The Sixers were busy adding and dropping players at the trade deadline now they look forward to their moves paying off in the second half of the season.

Joel Embiid is proving his worth as the best center in the league as he leads the Sixers with 27.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Jimmy Butler is chipping in 18.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.9 steals per game while Ben Simmons is having an excellent all-around season with 16.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game. J.J. Redick is contributing 18.6 points per game while the newly-acquired Tobias Harris is averaging 17.8 points and 7.0 rebounds in his first four games with the Sixers.

Philadelphia is ranked 3rd in the league in scoring at 115.9 points per game. They are also 3rd overall  in assists with 27.4 dimes per contest and are the #6 rebounding team in the NBA with their 47.0 boards grabbed per contest. The Sixers allow their opponents to score an average of 112.2 points per game which is the 20th ranked scoring defense in the league.

The Heat are in the thick of the fight in the East but they have lost six out of their last eight games played. If the Heat want to stay in the hunt, they must break out of that slump and start winning before they run out of games. This is the last stop of a six game road swing for the Heat and they are 2-3 on this trip so far.

The Sixers are 3-1 since acquiring Tobias Harris and company and they look to build on that momentum. Harris has given the team instant scoring and decent rebounding. There’s a slight concern in Philly though as Joel Embiid is expected to be rested for a week after the big man experienced knee soreness. Embiid isn’t expected to play in this game but with the depth of this team, that should not be a big issue against the Heat. If Embiid’s health issues are more serious than expected though, that could be a long term problem for the Sixers.

The Heat are 2-6 SU in their last eight games played and are 4-3 SU in their last seven games on the road. The Sixers are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played and 18-7 SU in their last 25 games played at home. Head to head, the Sixers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Heat and 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Miami.

The Heat are a pedestal 15-14 on the road this season while the Sixers’ 27-10 home record is third best in the East behind Milwaukee and Toronto. The Heat have been on the road for the past five games and despite the mid-season break, the Sixers hold the advantage here- homecourt and manpower.

I’m picking the Philadelphia 76ers to beat the Miami Heat on 2/21/19.

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Miami is 4-6 ATS in their last ten games played and they are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games played on the road. Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games played and are 2-3 ATS in its last five home games. Philly is also 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Heat and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against Miami.

The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous games, 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win. The Sixers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games and 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has good defense but they’ve struggled against high scoring opponents.

I’m picking the Philadelphia 76ers to cover the -6 spread against the Miami Heat.

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The total has gone under eight out of the last dozen games played by the Heat. Miami has also seen the total go under in 8 out of their last 12 games on the road. The total has gone under in six out of the Sixers’ last eight games played and also under in five out of their last seven home games. Head to head, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between the Heat and Sixers. While I expect the Sixers to deliver a strong offensive game, the Heat’s offensive woes should prevent the teams to top the 220 total set for this game.

I’m going with the under 220 for this game.

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Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

The Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks collide at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Thursday night in a battle of Eastern Conference powerhouse teams.

The Celtics haven’t lived up to their preseason billing as the best team in the East but Boston has been on a roll lately and have won seven out of their last nine games. The Celtics entered the All-Star break coming off back to back wins over Top 8 teams Philadelphia and Detroit. With the Bucks still leading the East, the Celtics hope to deliver a statement win in Milwaukee.

Kyrie Irving leads the Celtics with 23.6 points and 6.9 assists while also averaging 1.6 steals per game. Second year man Jayson Tatum is having an excellent season with 16.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while Marcus Morris is contributing 14.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per outing. Al Horford leads Boston with 6.8 rebounds while also scoring 12.7 points per contest.

Boston is the 12th top scoring team in the NBA at 113.0 points per game. They are ranked 6th in passing at 26.0 assists per game and are 16th off the glass with 45.1 rebounds per contest. Defensively, the Celtics are allowing opponents to score 106.6 points per game which is the 5th best scoring defense in the league.

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds

After a huge performance at the 2019 All-Star game, Giannis Antetokounmpo returns to Milwaukee to lead the Bucks against the fancied Boston Celtics. The Greek Freak scored 38 points, grabbed 11 boards and issued 5 assists for his All-Star team last Sunday and had his team won, he would have easily been the choice for All-Star Game MVP. But Team LeBron rallied from a huge 20-point deficit to beat Team Giannis 178-164.

Antetokounmpo is having a freaking season with 27.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. 2019 All-Star Khris Middleton is scoring 17.1 points, grabbing 5.8 rebounds and issuing 4.2 assists per game while guards Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon are scoring 15.8 points each for the Bucks.

The Bucks are a top 10 team in the major statistical categories. They are second to the Dubs in scoring at 116.9 points per game and are #7 in passing at 26.2 assists per game. Milwaukee is the top rebounding team in the league at 48.8 boards per contest and the Bucks are 8th best defensive team in the NBA at 107.1 opponent points per game allowed.

Boston is starting to put together wins and Kyrie Irving is expected to return after a two-game absence where Boston went 2-0. Jayson Tatum averaged 19.5 points per game in those two games but with the Anthony Davis rumors continuing to swirl around Boston, who knows how that will affect Tatum and the others. Davis has recently admitted that he “never said Boston wasn’t on his list” of preferred teams and I’m not sure how ( if ever) it impacts the way Boston has been playing.

Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games played and 3-0 SU in their last three games on the road. Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games played and is 11-2 SU in its last 13 home games played. Head to head, these two teams have split their last 10 meetings but the Bucks are 4-1 SU in their last five games played in Milwaukee

The Bucks have been dominating all-season long and have been very impressive at home with the best home record in the East. They’ve won by double digits in 18 out of their last 22 overall and are beating opponents by an average winning margin of 13.2 points at the Fiserv Forum. I think Boston gives a good challenge but Milwaukee wins this in front of their crowd.

I’m picking the Milwaukee Bucks to beat the Boston Celtics on 2/21/19.

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The Celtics are 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games played and are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played and are 1-1 ATS in their last two home games. Head to head, the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games against the Bucks. Boston is 9-3 ATS  in their last 12 games when playing on three or more days rest, 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus Eastern Conference rivals and 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. Milwaukee is 4-12-1 in their last 17 games when playing on three or more games rest, 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games against the East and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Head to head, the Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. The trends back the Celtics who have been rolling as of late but the Bucks have been rolling all-season long. The Bucks are a reliable 17-10-1 ATS at home this season and I’ll back the steady Bucks against the inconsistent Celtics.

I’m picking the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the reasonable -5.5 spread at home.

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The over is 4-2 in Boston’s last six games but the total has gone under in the Celtics’ last five games on the road. The under is 13-6 in Milwaukee’s last 19 games played and the total has gone under in five out of the last six home games for the Bucks. Head to head, the over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the over is also 5-2 in their last seven encounters in Milwaukee. Both teams play good defense but their offenses are much better than their defenses. They combined for 230 and 227 in their first two meetings this season and this one should be no different.

I’m picking the teams to go over the 227.5 total set for this games.

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Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors

The Sacramento Kings test the might of the defending champions Golden State Warriors on Thursday night at the Oracle Arena in Oakland.

The Kings need to finish the season strong if they are to make the playoffs as they have fallen to #9 in the Western Conference team standings. Sacramento though is just one game off 8th place and is just four games behind 4th place Portland so if they can put up a string of victories in the coming weeks, they could easily be back in the playoff picture.

Buddy Hield is the chief gunner of this young team, scoring an average of 20.5 points per game. Sophomore De’Aaron Fox has vastly improved at 17.2 points, 7.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Bogdan Bogdanovic is providing firepower with 14.8 points while newcomer Harrison Barnes is putting up 13.3 points per outing. Rookie Marvin Bagley III is also scoring 13.3 points per game while Willie Cauley-Stein leads the team in rebounding at 8.5 boards per contest while also scoring 12.7 points per game.

Sacramento has the 9th highest scoring average in the league at 113.4 points per game. The Kings are ranked 9th in assists at 25.6 dimes per contest and they are also 18th in rebounding at 45.0 boards grabbed per outing. Sacramento is giving up the 5th most points per game at 114.6 points allowed per game.

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors Odds

The Golden State Warriors are slowly but surely taking over the Western Conference again. After trailing the Nuggets for the most part of the first half of the season, the Dubs are now two games ahead of the pack with their 41-16 record. The Dubs have lost just twice in their last 10 games and they look to continue that trend as the competition resumes.

Stephen Curry leads the Dubs with 28.6 points per game. The former two-time MVP is making 5.1 three pointers per game at a high 44.1% clip. Kevin Durant is having another splendid season with 27.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while Klay Thompson is quietly putting up a 21.9 points scoring season. The Warriors have gotten a big lift from the return of DeMarcus Cousins who is averaging 13.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while providing the Champs with an inside presence they’ve never had before.

Golden State is the best offensive team in the league, leading the NBA in both scoring and passing. The Warriors score an average of 118.8 points per game to pace the pack. They are also the league leaders in assists at 29.5 per outing. The Dubs rank 8th in rebounding at 46.4 boards per contest and they are tied for 18th in scoring defense at 111.7 points per game allowed.

The Kings are 5-2 SU in their last seven games played but are just 2-9 SU in their last 11 road games. The Warriors are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games played and 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played at home. Head to head, the Warriors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Kings and the Dubs are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.

Sacramento is holding their own at this stage of the season and have put themselves in a position where they can still make the playoffs. It’s not going to be easy but their young players have matured quickly this season. However, the Warriors are just playing so good as of late and have been playing beautiful music at home. No question, the better and more experienced team wins this at home.

I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Sacramento Kings on 2/21/19.

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Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and 2-2 ATS in their last four road games. Golden State is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and is only 1-3 ATS in its last four games at home. Head to head, the Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall games against the Dubs and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the defending champs. The Kings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Warriors are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days rest.

The last three head to head games between these teams have been decided by an average of 3.3 points per game. The Dubs are playing excellent ball but have covered 11 out of 29 home games this season. I know the Warriors will win and they can easily blow out teams but I think the spread is too high given how hard Sacramento’s youngsters play. The Kings are 3-0 ATS against the Dubs this season with the spread below 10 points in all three games.

Give me my plus points as I’m picking the Kings to keep the margin to less than 12 points and cover the spread in this game.

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The under is 14-4 in Sacramento’s last 14 games played and the under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. The over is 3-2 in Golden State’s last five games played and the total has gone over in 12 out of the last 17 Thursday games played by the Warriors. Head to head, the over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between these teams in Oakland.

The Warriors are the top scoring team in the league while the Kings are in the top 10 as well. Sacramento has the 5th worst scoring defense in the NBA and the Dubs are just 18th in that department as well. This has the makings of a shootout and the Dubs have more bullets than the Kings here.

I’m picking the teams to go over the 239 total set for this game.

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Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers

The Houston Rockets take their act to Hollywood as the face the struggling Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center on Thursday night.

James Harden continues to defy the odds by putting up ridiculous scoring numbers while trying to single-handedly will the Houston Rockets back to the top of the Western Conference standings. After dropping to as low as 14th earlier in the season, the Rockets are now 5th in the West with their 33-24 record. Harden has scored at least 30 points in 31 consecutive games, tied with Wilt Chamberlain for the second longest in league history.

Harden leads Houston’s offensive attack with a league-best 36.6 points per game. The reigning NBA MVP is also dishing off 7.7 assists per game and hauling down 6.7 rebounds per outing. Eric Gordon has been a steady contributor with 16.1 points and 2.0 assists per game while the newly acquired Kenneth Faried has been a huge boost with his 15.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game average. Chris Paul is Houston’s top passer with 8.0 assists per game while also scoring 15.9 points per outing.

The Rockets are averaging 113.1 points per game, 11th best in the league. Houston is ranked 28th in assists with 20.8 dimes per contest and they are also 27th off the glass with 46.0 rebounds per outing. The Rockets are 14th in the NBA in scoring defense at 111.1 opponent points per game allowed this season.

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Odds

LeBron James and the Lakers enter the second half of the season hoping to get back in the playoff race. Once ranked 4th in the West, Los Angeles has dropped all the way down to 10th in the standings. However, Los Angeles is just 5 games behind 5th place Portland meaning there is still a chance to get back in the race but they have to start winning now.

LeBron James is back and healthy to lead the Lakers. King James is averaging 26.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram provide James with scoring support at 19.1 and 17.0 points per game, respectively. Javale McGee is the team’s top shot blocker at 2.0 blocks per game while also scoring 11.1 points and grabbing 6.9 rebounds per game. Rajon Rondo is also contributing 8.9 points and 7.6 assists per game.

The Lakers are 15th in the league in team scoring at 112.2 points per game. The Purple and Gold rank 13th in passing at 24.9 assists per game and they are also ranked 4th overall in rebounding at 47.0 boards per outing. Los Angeles is 22nd in scoring defense as they allow their opponents to score an average of 113.4 points per game.

Harden’s streak of 30 point games continues as he is defying the odds with his incredible usage. But he’s gotten help not just from old reliables Eric Gordon and Chris Paul but also from newcomers Kenneth Faried and Austin Rivers.With Clint Capela set to return, the Rockets are primed for a strong finish.

The Lakers are in desperation mode right now as time and games are running out for them to make it back to the Top 8 after they were hit by a series of injuries. Lonzo Ball and Tyson Chandler are still out and Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma are banged up. But with LeBron James back and ready to lead the team, the Lakers hope to make one big final push for the playofs.

The Rockets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and 3-2 SU in their last five home games. The Lakers are only 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played and only 1-3 SU in their last four games at the Staples Center. Head to head, the Rockets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings and are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played in Los Angeles.

I like the fact that Houston is getting Clint Capela back and they also have Kenneth Faried playing well. But Los Angeles has its back against the wall. The sense of desperation should bring out the best in their young core and with LeBron James starting to get healthy, the Lakers hope to finish strong.

I’m picking the Los Angeles Lakers to beat the Houston Rockets on 2/2/19.

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The Rockets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing SU record and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days rest. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on a Thursday and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Rockets have their problems covering the spread. With Capela back, they should do better but I think the Lakers are hungrier here. They are going to make one final playoff push and would want to start their second half of the season on a high note. I’m smelling an upset here. The Lakers are 13-15 SU on the road and the Rockets are just 16-12 SU at home.

I’m picking the Los Angeles Lakers to pick up this big road win while covering the 2.5 spread on the road.

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The over is 6-3-1 in the Rockets’ last 10 games played and the total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by Houston. The total is 4-2 in the Lakers’ last six games played but under in three out of their last four home games. Head to head, the the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.

The over is 5-1 in Los Angeles’ last five road games and the over is also 4-1 in the Lakers’ last five games against teams with winning records. The total has also gone over in 23 out of the last 32 games between these two teams. This one should be no different. The Lakers and Rockets are both in the Top 15 in scoring and should cover the total here.

I’m picking the teams to go over the total of 233 set for this matchup.

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