This Week's MLB Value Picks - September 10th

And down the stretch they come! On the day of writing, we were officially three weeks away from the conclusion of the marathon known as the Major League Baseball regular season. Not only does that mean we have the playoffs to look forward to around the corner, there’s also plenty of compelling races that will be decided in the next 21 days.

If the postseason were to begin today, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks would be on the outside looking in, but the Rockies, Cardinals and Brewers can’t feel that good about their footing in the National League playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners are running out of time to make a push for one of the wild card spots in the American League (despite a solid 79-64 record to begin the week, the M’s were 7.5 games out of the second wild card spot), but the surprising A’s are battling the Yanks for home field advantage in the wild-card game and also remain hot on the heels of Houston for first in the AL West.

All of that urgency means the oddsmakers will be shading the lines towards those teams, knowing that the betting public likes to bet on teams that need victories the most. That’s a mindset I’m looking to exploit this week with two of my three favorite MLB value picks, which you can read about below.

1. Pirates over Cardinals (Monday, 8 p.m. eastern)

Unless you’re an avid baseball fan, it would be easy to miss how sick of a run Trevor Williams has been on for the Pirates. Over his last nine starts, Williams has allowed just four runs in 54 2/3 innings, recording a 0.66 ERA over that stretch. He hasn’t allowed a run in six of those nine outings, including 6.2 scoreless frames in his last start Monday against Cincinnati. And just six weeks ago, Williams came into St. Louis and dealt the Cardinals a 2-0 loss, holding the Cards to just three hits in six shutout frames.

However, Williams’ excellence flies under the radar of most MLB bettors for a couple of reasons. First, he wasn’t having the best of seasons until his recent hot streak began, so while his 12-9 record and 3.15 ERA are solid, those full-season numbers don’t indicate how great he’s been. Second, his Pirates are just treading water at .500, realistically out of playoff contention for more than a month and seemingly without much “motivation” to finish strong down the stretch.

Wainwright’s been stellar in six rehabilitation outings (17 scoreless innings), but those were the minor leagues. His major league numbers have been on significant decline for several years, with Wainwright failing to post an ERA lower than 4.62 since 2014. I don’t expect the 37-year-old to suddenly find his form from 10 years ago in his first start in four months, and even if Wainwright does dip into the fountain of youth for a few solid innings in this contest, he’ll be on a pitch count that probably gets the St. Louis middle relievers involved earlier than usual.

2. Giants over Braves (Monday, 10:15 p.m. eastern)

Here’s another classic case of September baseball betting lines, where each team’s urgency and motivation levels are factored into the odds. Based on the starting pitchers projected to start in this contest, there’s no way that the Braves should be a road favorite in San Francisco. But with Atlanta looking to lock up top spot in the NL East while the Giants scuffle along with just one win in their last 10 games, that’s the situation. And we’re going to try to take advantage of it.

The Giants’ offense doesn’t really scare anyone these days, but I don’t think they’ll need to do that much damage in order to pull out a victory tonight. That’s because San Fran is sending arguably its best starter (in 2018, at least) to the mound in Dereck Rodriguez. The 26-year-old owns the fifth-best ERA among National League pitchers with at least 15 starts on the year, and having a 6-2 record pitching for this Giants squad sticks out like a beautiful flower in the middle of a garbage dump. And although he’s winless in his last three starts, it’s been no fault of his own, having limited just six runs in his last 17 innings of work. Opponents during that stretch included playoff contenders in Arizona and Colorado, so he won’t be fazed by taking on this hot-hitting Braves squad Monday night.

3. Royals over Twins (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. eastern)

Wins have been very few and far between this year in Kansas City, where it must feel like that 2015 World Series title was won in 1915. The Royals entered this week’s action with a horrific 47-95 record, a mark that put them nine games behind the Marlins and Padres for the third-worst record in all of baseball. However, when a team is that bad, it’s easy not to notice when they’re playing a bit better. And Kansas City has done exactly that in the second half of the season, going 20-27 since the All-Star Game. I’ll admit that’s still not quite setting the world on fire, but after a 27-68 first half of the year, it’s one of the biggest second-half improvements in MLB.

When the Royals see who’s on the mound for Minnesota, they’ll like their chances even more. Stephen Gonsalves has appeared to be in over his head since making his Major League debut last month for the Twinkies, entering this game with an 0-2 record and 11.68 ERA. And before you think that maybe he was just unfortunate to face some potent lineups, consider that only one of his first four opponents (Oakland) will make the playoffs this year. The Royals themselves knocked Gonsalves around in his last start, reaching the young lefty for 5 runs on 5 hits in just 2.1 innings. Gonsalves is regarded as a top-3 prospect in Minnesota’s farm system, but he can’t be feeling that confident in his abilities through four Major League starts. In fact, all of that hype about him is probably making him feel pressure to perform as he auditions for a spot on the 2019 roster.

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