This Week's MLB Value Picks - Aug 13th

The dog days of summer are definitely upon us as a handful of MLB teams are still playing for postseason positioning while many are simply playing out the string. That’s especially true in the American League, where the Indians, Red Sox and Yankees have been virtual locks to make the postseason for several months while teams like the Royals, Tigers, White Sox, Orioles, Rangers and Blue Jays were out of contention as soon as the season began.

But while MLB’s also-rans may seem to be lacking motivation, it’s actually the teams that are out of playoff contention that can provide the greatest value on the baseball betting lines. Public perception is that these teams don’t care, making them little more than a speedbump for the runaway trains who are on their way to October. However, intensity doesn’t matter nearly as much in baseball as it does in other professional sports, and anything can truly happen when two Major League teams take to the diamond.

For that reason, I’ve circled two non-playoff squads on this week’s MLB schedule who I think can exploit matchups against World Series contenders and deliver us some nice plus-money underdog returns. My other favorite value play of this week comes on a wild card threat (with its ace on the mound) who will likely to be undervalued as it faces the hottest team in the Majors over the past couple of months.

Ready to take some swings at some underdog cash? Let’s dig into the box and identify the best value that is likely to be thrown our way by the oddsmakers this week.

1. Rangers over Diamondbacks (Tuesday, Aug. 14)

It’s been a disappointing year in Texas, but the Rangers are still showing plenty of life these days – especially at home. The Rangers have posted double-digit run totals in four of their last seven games at The Ballpark in Arlington and seven times since the end of June. As long as their pitching can keep them in the game, the Rangers are a live home dog with the way that offense is clicking, and I like Yovani Gallardo’s chances of doing just that in this one.

That may seem funny to say, considering that Gallardo’s ERA this season is a whopping 6.11 and his WHIP is an ugly 1.55. But look at Gallardo’s recent starts, and you’ll see that he’s actually been pretty solid over the past couple of months. Over his last four starts, Gallardo has beaten three teams that are likely playoff-bound this year, holding the Mariners, Astros and Indians to a combined eight hits and two runs in 17.1 innings. It’s not that long ago that Gallardo was one of the top pitchers in the National League, and after a couple of rough years in which he may have been battling injuries, he’s starting to show signs of returning to his former form.

Arizona is slated to send Patrick Corbin to the bump here, and Corbin is definitely no pushover with a tidy 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA on the campaign. But Corbin’s numbers only drive up the line on the road favorite here, and we’ve certainly seen many elite starters struggle over the years pitching in the Texas heat. This will be Corbin’s first time pitching in Arlington, and with half of Corbin’s outs this year coming on fly balls, that’s not an ideal recipe for success pitching in Arlington. Especially when the Rangers’ offense is as hot as it has been, not to mention the fact that Texas owns the sixth-highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitching.

2. Mariners over Athletics (Tuesday, Aug 14)

Once every few years, the Oakland A’s seem to come out of nowhere with a prolonged hot streak that suddenly catapults them into the playoff conversation. That’s exactly what they’ve done this summer, going 37-16 over their last 53 games (including Sunday’s victory in Anaheim) to move into wild card position and creep within a few games of the West-leading Astros.

But if you’re looking to get good value on the A’s, that ship has sailed. Every guy and his dog is now aware of how hot Oakland’s been, and you have to pay a premium to back the green and gold right now.  The A’s have been favored in eight of their last 11 games, and two of the three games they were dogged in were against Dodgers southpaws Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. We can be sure that Oakland will also be laying a price in this home game against Seattle, which is tremendous value on the visiting M’s based on the projected starting pitching matchup.

James Paxton has simply owned this A’s lineup over his career, holding the current Oakland roster to a .221 average and .663 OPS with 34 of his 86 outs coming via the strikeout. That includes holding A’s sparkplug Jed Lowrie to 4-for-18 with 5 strikeouts and Oakland power hitter Khris Davis to a 2-for-12 with 5 punchouts. In his lone start against the A’s earlier this year, Paxton was absolutely filthy, fanning 16 in seven scoreless innings of work.

While Paxton is primed for a solid outing here (especially as he looks to bounce back from sub-par outings against Toronto and Houston in his last two starts), Mike Fiers won’t be excited about seeing the Seattle lineup. The veteran righty has a 6.21 ERA in two career outings versus the M’s, including a start earlier this year in which he allowed six hits and four earned runs in five innings. He may also be vulnerable to an emotional letdown after beating Kershaw and the Dodgers in his most recent outing, Fiers’ first in an A’s uniform after being acquired from the Tigers. When you’re a new addition to a team pushing for a postseason berth, you want to prove your worth immediately, and it’ll be hard for Fiers to match that intensity and focus once again five days later.

Finally, there are some trends that support this play as well. Seattle has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these division rivals, and 20 of its last 27 in Oakland. Clearly the Mariners aren’t intimidated by visiting northern California, especially coming off a four-game sweep of the defending World Series champion Astros over the weekend. In this matchup of two teams battling for a wild card spot, if not the American League West pennant, I’m eager to back the Mariners as long as we can get plus money.

3. Rays over Red Sox (Friday, Aug. 17)

Going against the Red Sox at any time these days is definitely a leap of faith. But if you’re brave enough to fade baseball’s best team, you’re going to be rewarded with an opportunity at a fat return. The key is to pick your spots wisely, and there are a few angles in this game that make it worth taking a shot at what should be a payout in the +200 range or higher.

The first is the situational spot for the Red Sox, who will be playing their first home game in nearly two weeks following a 9-game road trip through Toronto, Baltimore and Philadelphia. Although situational handicapping plays a greater role in high-intensity sports like basketball and hockey, there’s still something to be said for the challenge of coming home from two weeks on the road and bringing full focus to the park. These players have wives and girlfriends and families and friends just like the rest of us, and being back in the same area code for the first time in a while can bring more than its share of distractions.

Of course, that’s not enough of a reason to go against the Red Sox at home, especially when Cy Young candidate Chris Sale is likely to be on the bump. But Sale is also a big reason that we’re going to see a huge price on the Bosox here and an opportunity at a big takeback on the Rays. So why are we interested in fading Sale here? Well, the numbers clearly show that the slender lefty is nowhere near as sharp down the stretch as he is early in the season. In case you’re not aware, the only months of Sale’s career in which his ERA is higher than 3.00 is August (3.22) and September/October (3.78). Meanwhile, he’s 69-26 in his career in the first half of the season, but just 33-36 lifetime after the all-star break. Bookies are always going to price Sale on his full season numbers and his reputation, opening up a ton of value on fading Sale late in the year.

Just as betting against the Red Sox at home isn’t an appealing proposition, there’s rarely anything sexy about betting on the Rays as well. But Tampa Bay’s sum has often been much greater than its parts over the years, and that’s the case again this year as the Rays come into this week at a respectable 60-58 on the season. They also hold their own against left-handed pitching, ranking 13th in the majors in team OPS against southpaws at the start of the week.

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