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College hoops features the Big 12 against the ACC on Thursday as the 12th ranked and unbeaten Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the #2 team in the nation in 10-1 Duke Blue Devils at the mecca in sports in Madison Square Garden in New York.
Texas Tech defeated Abilene Christian 82-48 at home in their last outing while Duke vanquished Princeton 101-50 at their home floor in the Blue Devils’ most recent game.
Top Ranked Defense
The Texa Tech Red Raiders have raced to a 10-0 start to their season thanks mainly to their standout defensive effort. The Red Raiders lead the NCAA in points allowed per game at 51.1 and they are also the nation’s best in opponent FG percentage allowed at 32.2%. That defense was on display in their most recent game against the Abilene Christian Wildcats whom they limited to 28.3% field goal shooting and 23.8% shooting from behind the arc. As stated earlier, the result wasa 34 point blowout win by Texas Tech.
Second year man Jarrett Culver leads Texas Tech in points and assists at 19.1 PPG and 4.4 APG on the season. Matt Mooney is also averaging 11.0 points per game while Kyler Edwards is scoring 7.9 points per outing. The Red Raiders offense is averaging 77.5 points per game which is ranked 113th in college basketball. They are shooting the ball well at 49.9% from the floor, giving them a national ranking of 17th in that department.
Texas Tech vs Duke 12/20/18
Moneyline Odds Not Yet Available As Of This Writing
High Powered Offense
Facing Texas Tech and their vaunted defense is the high powered offense of the young Duke Blue Devils. Duke is scoring 93.6 points per game of the season, making them the 5th highest scoring team in the land. The Blue Devils are also ranked 12th in college basketball in terms of field goal percentage with the 50.2% mark.
The Duke offense is led by their super freshmen R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson. Barrett ranks 10th in the NCAA’s scoring list this season with his 24.5 points per game average. Meanwhile, Williamson is a second 20 point scorer in the team with his 20.1 scoring average. Both first year players are expected to apply for the next NBA draft and given their natural talents, they could easily go 1-2 in the 2019 NBA Draft.
Who Wins?
The Texas Tech Raiders are a perfect 10-0 this season but because of the strength of their schedule some people aren’t giving them enough credit for their excellent start. CBS Sports puts Texas Tech’s SOS or strength of schedule at 0.4765 or #227 in the nation. Meanwhile, Duke is ranked 38th in the same department at .5759. The huge disparity points to the Red Raiders being untested, as their detractors say. But let’s not talk about the schedule. That’s not their choice. Let’s talk about how the team plays.
The Red Raiders are a fundamentally sound basketball squad who don’t gamble and when we say that, we mean it positively. They play a meticulous man to man defense with an excellent shot blocker in the middle (Tariq Owens, 2.7 blocks per game). They play a deliberate offense and don’t turn over the ball a lot. Nothing fancy right? But this old fashioned style could stifle a young team that’s always out to score points and smother their opposition. The Red Raiders hope it works on Thursday and I think it will.
Texas Tech vs Duke may be a game closer than what the lines are saying. I’m still leaning towards Duke to win this game outright based on pure talent. But I don’t think this will be a walk in the park for them. It’s going to be a tough win in a close game.
Prediction: Duke Blue Devils in a closely fought game.
Other Bets To Make
Texas Tech is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against ACC teams and 0-5 ATS in their last games played on a Thursday. Duke is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Texas Tech vs Duke 12/20/18
Spread Odds: Texas Tech +8, Duke -8
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/19/18
I know that Duke is a very good team and the ATS trends point to that. But remember that when Duke lost to Gonzaga, they were only allowed 72 possessions in that game which is three below its average. Texas Tech is a talented defensive team that allows only 68 possessions per game. If they can dictate the pace of this game, we could see them victorious outright. I think this game can go either way and I won’t blame you if you bet on Duke outright. But at +8, I like the plus points on a talented, balanced and experienced Red Raiders team against Duke’s freshman sensations. I’ll take my plus 8 here in what should be a close game.
Prediction: Texas Tech +8
The over is 6-1 in the last seven games where Texas Tech was an underdog by 7-12.5 points. The over is also 9-4 in the last 13 games where Duke was a favorite in a neutral venue. The total has gone over in 11 out of 15 overall games played by Duke at a neutral venue. The over is 1-1 when the Red Raiders play away from home while the over is also 2-1 when the Blue Devils don’t play at their home floor.
Texas Tech vs Duke 12/20/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 145.5 -115, Under 145.5 -105
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/19/18
Duke has been smothering its opposition left and right. When you take a look at the overall O/U records of both teams, the under hast hit more than the over. For Texas Tech, the under is 7-3 in 10 games and that’s because the Red Raiders have been known for their defense. Meanwhile for Duke, the under is 9-2 but that was a result of high totals which were at least 160 in their last 10 games. I know the Red Raiders are a standout defensive unit but they have not faced a juggernaut like Duke. As for Duke, they have scored an average of 95.8 in their last five games. Texas Tech is going to limit Duke but I think 145.5 is a score total too low for a game with the Blue Devils playing.
Prediction: Over 145.5
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