Texas Southern vs Mount St. Mary’s 03/18/2021 NCAAM First Four Odds and Predictions

The SWAC Tournament winners Texas Southern Tigers head to the First Four as slight betting favorites against the NEC Tournament champions Mount St. Mary’s on March 18, 2021, at the Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

The Tigers have won 14 out of their last 15 games and will be making the field for the 9th time in school history. On the other hand, the Mountaineers were the last team to get a ticket to the big dance after becoming the surprise winners in the NEC.

Texas Southern

The Texas Southern Tigers finished third in the Southwestern Athletic Conference with a 10-3 record but knocked off the top two seed to earn the automatic bid. The Tigers defeated the Prairie View A&M 80-61 in the SWAC title game last Saturday as three point underdogs.

Texas Southern is the 229th ranked team in the nation according to the KenPom rankings. Their schedule is ranked 341st among 357 teams and they are averaging 74.84 points per game while shooting at a 44.5% clip. The Tigers are 10th in rebounding at 41.6 boards grabbed per contest and are issuing 12.4 assists per game. Texas Southern is conceding 69.4 points per game this season.

Michael Weathers leads the team in scoring at 16.5 points per game and was the SWAC Tournament MVP. Weathers scored 30 points in their OT win over Jackson State in the conference semifinals, hitting a buzzer-beating triple to force overtime. John Walker III is scoring 12 points and grabbing 5.4 rebounds per game while Joirdon Karl Nicholas is averaging 11.3 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Texas Southern

-115

Mount St. Mary’s

-105

Odds from BetOnline as of 03/17/2021

Mount St. Mary’s

Mount St. Mary’s caught fire at the right time, going 4-0 SU and ATS to advance to the NCAA tournament for the sixth time in school history. They won their last two regular season games to finish with a 9-7 conference record and grab the final spot in the NEC tournament. They upset top seed Wagner 66-60 and defeated number 2 Bryant 73-68 as 6.5 point underdogs to win the NEC.

The Mountaineers are the 219th ranked team according to KenPom and they had the 303rd rated schedule. Mount St. Mary’s is averaging 63.7 points per game and they are allowing just 62.3 points per outing this season. The Mountaineers are 95th in rebounding at 37.3 boards grabbed per game and are averaging 11.5 assists per game.

Junior Damian Chong Qui leads the Mountaineers with an average of 15.1 points and 5.5 assists per game. Qui scored 21 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and issued five assists in the NEC title game. Nana Opoku leads the team with 7.0 rebounds per game and is the team’s second-leading scorer at 10.3 PPG.

Who Wins?

Texas Southern is 9-0 SU in their last nine games played. The Tigers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games played in March. Mount St. Mary’s is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Mountaineers are 4-1 SU in their last five Thursday games. Texas Southern is also 3-0 SU in three neutral venue games played while Mount St. Mary’s is 0-1 when playing at a neutral site.

The Mountaineers closed as the betting underdog in three out of their last four games, including their two NEC tournament games. The Tigers have won 13 out of their last 14 games with their lone setback during that period being a two-point loss to the Prairie View team it beat by 19 points in the conference finals.

Prediction: Texas Southern -115

Other Bets To Make

The Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played. Texas Southern is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in a neutral venue, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games, and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent with a winning SU record. The Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. Mount St. Mary’s is 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up win, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning SU record.

What are the Spread Odds?

Texas Southern (Ev)

-112

Mount St. Mary’s (Ev)

-108

Odds from BetOnline as of 03/17/2021

Texas Southern has a much more deeper team when it comes to putting up points on the scoreboard. This is a team that beat Wyoming and hung around with Washington State and St. Mary’s. The Mountaineers can score points but are more of a grinding defensive unit. We’ve seen their offense go through droughts before and I think that will be the difference here. The more consistent and prolific scoring Texas Southern team takes this.

Prediction: Texas Southern (Ev) -112

The total has gone over in eight out of the last 12 games played by Texas Southern. The over is 7-1 in their last eight Thursday games, 4-1 in their last four Thursday road games, 5-1 in their last six NCAA Tournament games, 15-5 in their last 20 games after a straight up win. The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Mountaineers. The over is 8-1 in their last nine games in a neutral venue. Mount St. Mary’s has seen the total go over in four out of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

Both teams don’t shoot a lot of three-pointers and they are good at defending the perimeter. Both also rank in the Top 50 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage so you can’t just overlook the “under”. However, Texas Southern has scored at least 75 points in all but one of their last dozen games played. On the other hand, the Mountaineers have scored 66 or more in their last five games with the over going 4-1 during that period. Both teams combined to score an average of 144.2 points per game this season.

Over 133 (-110)

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