Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 NBA Finals Odds and Pick

The Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks square off in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals on Wednesday night at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

Phoenix took a quick 2-0 lead after winning both of their home games to open the series. However, the Bucks struck back when the Finals shifted to Wisconsin as they blew out the Suns by 20 points in Game 3. With another Game at their home court, the Bucks look to force a tie while the Suns attempt to break the series wide open.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns finally showed some weaknesses in Game 3. After dominating the first two games of the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns shot blanks from the three-point distance, making only 9 out of 31 attempts from deep in Game 3. They were also outmatched in the paint with the Bucks scoring 14 more points in the shaded lane.

Devin Booker shot just 3-14 from the field while Mikal Bridges took only four shots the entire game. Deandre Ayton was off to a strong start but he got into foul trouble and never found consistent minutes for the Suns. The lone bright spot for Phoenix in that game was Jae Crowder who made six out of seven three-point attempts while also grabbing six rebounds and blocking one shot.

With Dario Saric out, Monty Williams needs to quicken the pace of the game against the bigger but slower Bucks, especially when Ayton is resting. Williams will also have to keep Ayton out of foul trouble because they have no one to play behind him except Kaminsky.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Suns

+155

Bucks

-175

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/14/2021

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks have come alive in the series. After dropping the first two games in Phoenix, Milwaukee came out with a lot of determination in Game 3. With Phoenix having a thin frontcourt, the Bucks let Giannis Antetokounmpo pound the middle, and when he got Ayton into foul trouble, the Greek Freak went amok and scored 41 points.

Milwaukee also got a big game from Jrue Holiday who was heavily criticized for his poor showing in Phoenix. Holiday finished Game 3 with 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists on 8-14 shooting, including 5-10 from three-point distance. Khris Middleton also contributed 18 points, 7 rebounds, and six assists.

Coach Bud finally took advantage of his team’s size as the Bucks pounded the middle and got 10 more free throw attempts than the Suns, and making 9 more than their opponents. The Bucks also crashed the boards and outrebounded the Suns 54-40, including 13-6 off the offensive glass.

Who Wins?

Phoenix is 13-3 SU in their last 16 games played. The Suns are 30-15 SU in 45 total road games played this season. Milwaukee has won 13 times in their last 20 outings. The Bucks are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games played.

Head to head, the Suns are 5-1 SU in their last six games played against the Bucks. However, Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in their last seven home games against Phoenix.

The Suns meanwhile will have to keep Ayton out of foul trouble. The former no. 1 pick played only 24 minutes in Game 2 as he was saddled by foul trouble. With Ayton playing just half the minutes of the entire game, Giannis went on a tear and finished with 41 points while dominating the paint.

Milwaukee blew out Phoenix in Game 3 but it’s unlikely to see Phoenix shoot 29% from deep for a second straight game. It’s also unrealistic to believe that Devin Booker will struggle from the field again. I think Booker bounces back with a big game, and the Sus will go toe to toe with the Bucks in Game 4.

However, Milwaukee has found the winning formula and they will keep on pounding the rock here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Other Bets to Make

Phoenix is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games played. The Suns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played, 46-18-1 ATS in their last 65 games against an opponent with a winning record, 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight up loss, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as betting underdogs.

Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites, and 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as betting favorites.

Head to head, the Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the Bucks. Phoenix is also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee.

What are the Spread Odds?

Suns

+4.5 (-115)

Bucks

-4.5 (-105)

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/14/2021

You have to like the adjustments made by the Bucks in Game 3 as they were able to take advantage of their size edge over Phoenix. With Giannis forcing the issue inside, Ayton fell into foul trouble and that was the key to victory.

However, Devin Booker had a poor shooting night and finished with 10 points. Mikal Bridges also took only four shots in Game 3. As a team, the Suns shot just 29% from three-point distance, and to me thats’ what really hurt them in Game 3 aside from Ayton getting into foul trouble.

I don’t think we’ll see another blowout here. Booker should have a good bounce back game and the Suns will shoot better from deep. I won’t blame you if you go with Milwaukee. However, the Suns have been excellent against the spread since the Orlando Bubble and it’s tough for me to overlook that.

I’m picking the Bucks to win outright but I’m not sure by how many points. But it should be a much closer game than Game 3. I’m looking at a one-possession win by either team. I’ll take the plus points and the covering machine.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-115)

The total has gone over four out of the last five games played by the Suns. The over is 7-1 in their last eight games against Eastern Conference teams, 6-1 against teams from the Central division, 5-1-2 in their last 8 postseason games as betting underdogs, and 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games.

The over is 4-1 in the last five games played by Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen the total go over in 8 out of their last 9 games against a Western Conference opponent. The over is also 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against an opponent with a winning record, and 37-18-1 in their last 56 games when playing on two days rest.

Head to head, the over is 6-0-1 in their last seven meetings between these two teams.

What are the Total Odds?

Over

220.5 (-110)

Under

220.5 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/14/2021

These teams combined to score 223, 226, and 220 points in the first three games of the series. Remember that Booker scored only 10 points in Game 3 and the Suns shot only 29% from deep in that game as well.

These are two prolific scoring teams, ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league in scoring during the regular season. With their key offensive players healthy, this should be another high-scoring affair between two offensive-minded teams.

Prediction: Over 220.5

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