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The San Antonio Spurs head back to Mile High to face the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series.
Blowing An Early Lead
The Spurs led by 12 points in the first period only to see Denver outscore them 69-45 in the second and third quarters combined. San Antonio also had 60 points in the paint, just two off their Game 3 total. But the Spurs gave up 9 more fastbreak points and 11 more second-chance points that enabled the Nuggets to win 117-103 and tie the series at two games apiece.
After scoring a career-high 36 points in the previous game, Derrick White was shut down to just 8 points on 3-8 shooting. Denver head coach Mike Malone had Torrey Craig start in the place of Will Barton and Craig responded with 18 points including five three-pointers to help Denver win. DeMar DeRozan was ejected after protesting a call with five minutes left in the game. He finished with 19 points behind LaMarcus Aldridge who had 24.
Spurs
+200
Nuggets
-240
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/23/19
The Denver Nuggets entered Game 4 having lost three in a row in the playoffs and 13 in a row during the regular season. With so much at stake, coach Mike Malone asked more fire and passion from his boys and they delivered big time with a 14-point victory that tied the series at 2-2. Denver has now reclaimed home court advantage, for whatever that’s worth now.
Nikola Jokic had 29 points and 12 rebounds while Jamal Murray scored 24 points. Torrey Craig and Will Barton combined to shoot 8-10 behind the three points line for the Nuggets. Denver has yet to lead in this series and they are looking to put the inexperience tag behind them and move on to the next round where they will face the winner of the Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder series.
Who Wins?
San Antonio is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games and the Spurs are 3-2 SU in their last five games on the road. Denver is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played and the Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the Spurs.
The Denver Nuggets showed their toughness with a gritty Game 4 win over the Spurs in San Antonio. Remember that Denver had lost three straight playoff games and 13 consecutive regular-season games in San Antonio before Saturday night. To come from double-digits down and win 117-103 was a big booster for the baby Nuggets.
The Spurs meanwhile must be disappointed at blowing the opportunity to take a 3-1 lead in the series. Derrick White was limited to 8 points on 3-8 shooting while primarily guarded by Torrey Craig who started over Will Barton. Craig also delivered with 5 three-pointers and 18 points.
Despite the series being tied at 2-2, it’s obvious that San Antonio is playing more consistent basketball right now. The Spurs have led in all four games and seemingly controlling the pace in all four games. Denver looks like their slowly getting more comfortable in the postseason but they still look shaky at times. In a very crucial game 5, I’d like to pick the more experienced and more consistent team right now and that’s the Spurs.
I’m picking the San Antonio Spurs to beat the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of their first-round series.
Other Bets To Make
The Spurs are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played and San Antonio is 3-2 ATS in their last five games played on the road. The Nuggets are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and Denver is 3-2 ATS in their last five home games. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings against San Antonio.
Spurs
+5.5 (+105)
Nuggets
-5.5 (+115)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/23/19
San Antonio is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Western Conference, 1-5 ATS in their last six Tuesday games and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games played in Denver. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on two-days rest, 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games against the Southwest Division and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 conference quarterfinals games. Denver’s two wins in this series have come in games where they hit torrid streaks and big runs. Overall though, the Spurs have dictated the tempo of the series and have played more consistently. Denver is at home here but the Spurs have won before and will win again.
Prediction: Spurs +5.5
The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by San Antonio. The under is 3-2 in the Spurs’ last five games on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go under in three out of their last five games played. Head to head, the over is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams.
Spurs
O 211.5 -110
Nuggets
U 211.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/23/19
The total has gone over in the last three games of this series combining for at least 216 points in each of the last three meetings. San Antonio likes to keep this low-scoring but the Nuggets have too many weapons, forcing San Antonio to adjust a bit. With Denver getting a little more consistent as well, I think this game tops 211 easily.
Prediction: Over 211.5
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