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The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets play Game 2 of their Western Conference first round series at the Pepsi Center on Tuesday night.
Excellence of Execution
The Spurs did a masterful job against the Nuggets in Game 1 as they executed their game plan to perfection. San Antonio suffocated Nikola Jokic all-night long and despite the Joker coming up with a triple-double, the Spurs held Jokic to just 10 points in Game 1. On offense, San Antonio ran a balanced attack with five players scoring 14 or more points during the game.
DeMar DeRozan led the Spurs with 18 points and 12 boards in Game 1 while LaMarcus Aldridge had 15 points and 8 rebounds. San Antonio got a huge lift from reserve guard Derrick White who shot 7-10 and finished with 16 points. The Spurs also got great games from starting guard Bryn Forbes who scored 15 points and veteran forward Rudy Gay who added 14 points.
Spurs
+250
Nuggets
-300
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/16/19
Inexperienced Team
The Nuggets were the 2nd best team in the West but they are also one of the most inexperienced playoff teams in the current group. The inexperience was evident in Game 1 as Denver shot just 42% from the floor and 21.4% from behind the three point line. A more glaring statline was Denver shooting just 16-24 from the foul line and in a five-point loss, that could have been the difference.
As we said earlier, Jokic had a triple-double with 10 points ,14 rebounds and 14 assists but he took just nine shots in the game. That’s not going to be enough for the team’s best player. Gary Harris led the Nuggets with 20 points while Jamal Murray had 18 although he shot just 8-24 from the floor. Will Barton also had 15 points but he too was just 6-15 from the field.
Who Wins?
San Antonio is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Spurs are 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road. The Nuggets are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. Denver is 3-2 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Spurs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Nuggets.
The Nuggets were the second-best regular season team in the Western Conference just behind the Golden State Warriors. But this is the postseason and when you take a look at the team here, they are one of the most inexperienced playoff teams in the current batch of playoff contenders.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are battle-tested and ready. They have excellent coaching in Gregg Popovich who simply knows what to do with his players. Popovich’s role players came to play again, as they always do in the playoffs and that’s what makes this San Antonio team difficult to beat them.
Denver though was the best home team in the NBA during the regular season. Coach Mike Malone may not be Popovich but he’s good in making adjustments. If Denver gets more scoring from Jokic, they are in good shape here. I like the home team to bounce back with a win in Game 2. I’m picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2.
Other Bets To Make
The Spurs are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road. The Nuggets are also 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Denver is 2-3 ATS in their last five games at home. Head to head, the Spurs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Nuggets.
Spurs
+7 (-110)
Nuggets
-7 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/16/19
San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning record and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage of above .600. Denver is 1-5 ATS against an opponent with a losing road record, 0-8 ATS in their last 8 conference quarterfinals games and just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Denver’s inexperience was evident in Game 1. However, they are well-coached and very talented and I expect them to make the adjustments here. But when talking about the spread, it’s San Antonio who’s played well against it. I expect another close game with the visitors covering the spread. Prediction: Spurs +7
The under is 7-3 in San Antonio’s last 10 games played. The total has gone under in four out of the last six road games played by the Spurs. The under is 6-4 in the Nuggets’ last 10 games played. The Nuggets have seen the total go under in four out of their last five games played at home. Head to head, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these two teams.
Spurs
O 208.5 -110
Nuggets
U 208.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/16/19
Like in Game 1, I expect both teams to play their slow, deliberate and defensive games. These teams combined to score just a total of 197 points. Considering San Antonio already shot 48% from the floor in Game 1 and just scored 101 points, I don’t expect this game to be any different. This should be a low scoring affair again. Prediction: Under 208.5
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