Texas Rangers vs Houston Astro 09/05/2022 MLB Odds and Prediction

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros open a three-game set on Monday at Minute Maid Park.

Texas is out of playoff contention and has a record of 58-75. They are in third place in the AL West Division and 27.5 games behind Houston in the division standings. The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 games played and head to Houston having lost their last eight contests.

Meanwhile, the Astros are cruising to the best record in the American League. At 86-48 on the year, Houston is six games ahead of the New York Yankees in the League standings and 10 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners in the division standings. The Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games played and they bounced back from a 2-1 loss to the Angels with a 9-1 win on Sunday afternoon.

Houston is 12-4 against Texas this season.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have dropped eight in a row and were swept by the Boston Red Sox in four games in their most recent series. Texas lost 5-2 last Sunday and they are now 27.5 games behind Houston in the Division standings.

Texas is 10th in baseball in scoring with an average of 4.52 runs per game. They are also 15th in batting average, 12th in slugging percentage, and 8th overall in home runs. Nathaniel Lowe leads Texas with a batting average of .305 with 23 home runs and 67 RBIs. Cory Seager is hitting at .253 with 29 home runs and 72 RBIs.

Martin Perez gets the call to open for Texas on Monday. Perez is 10-5 on the season with an ERA of 2.89 in 26 starts. In his last start, however, he conceded 5 runs on 9 hits in five innings pitched during a 5-3 loss to the Astros. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.50 in two starts against Houston this season. Texas is 21st in staff ERA at 4.17 while they have the 13th best bullpen in baseball with an ERA of 3.77.

Houston Astros

The Astros didn’t start very strong but are definitely closing better than their AL rivals. Houston is currently six games up on the New York Yankees and looks like they are about to lock the top seed in the American League.

Houston ranks 11th in baseball in scoring at 4.50 runs per game. They are 13th in batting average, 7th in slugging percentage, and 5th in home runs hit. Alex Bergman has been playing well as of late with 20 home runs and 78 RBIs on a .265 batting average. Kyle Tucker has 22 homers and 84 RBIs while Yordan Alvarez is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury.

Hunter Brown will get his first MLB start on Monday. The right-hander is a top prospect from the Astros farm team. At Sugarland in Triple-A, Brown posted a record of 9-4 with an ERA of 2.55 while recording 134 strikeouts in 106 innings. Houston has a team ERA of 3.00 which is second best in baseball. They also have the best bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.87.

Rangers vs Astros Prediction

The Rangers are 14-38 in the last 52 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. Texas is also 15-36 in their last 51 games played in Houston.

Texas Rangers betting trends:

• Rangers are 0-8 in their last 8 overall.

• Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.

• Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 Monday games.

• Rangers are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Rangers are 8-18 in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record.

• Rangers are 32-72 in their last 104 road games versus a right-handed starter.

• Rangers are 19-49 in their last 68 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Rangers are 16-44 in their last 60 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 Game 2s of a series.

• Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 against American League West.

• Rangers are 0-7 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Rangers are 0-7 in their last 7 games following a loss.

• Rangers are 0-8 in their last 8 games on grass.

• Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter.

• Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Houston Astros betting trends:

• Astros are 49-24 in their last 73 overall.

• Astros are 42-16 in their last 58 home games.

• Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win.

• Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Astros are 38-13 in their last 51 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Astros are 38-14 in their last 52 games versus a left-handed starter.

• Astros are 66-27 in their last 93 home games against a left-handed starter.

• Astros are 39-16 in their last 55 versus the. American League West.

• Astros are 38-16 in their last 54 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Astros are 104-44 in their last 148 home games opposite a team with a losing record.

• Astros are 37-16 in their last 53 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Astros are 56-25 in their last 81 during game 1 of a series.

• Astros are 40-18 in their last 58 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Astros are 78-37 in their last 115 games on grass.

• Astros are 62-30 in their last 92 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.

• Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Rangers

+152

Astros

-165

Odds from BetOnline as of 09/05/2022

I will not blame you if you take the plus money and the road team here. Brown will be making his first start and this one could go either way for the Astros. Meanwhile, Perez has a decent all-time record against Houston despite getting roughed up in his last two starts against them.

But then I am trusting that Brown will get the job done as he has in Triple-A play where he posted an ERA of 2.85 as a reliever and starter. And even if I am wrong and he gets roughed up here, the Astros will turn the ball over to the best reliever corps in the majors. I’ll go with the home team here.

Prediction: Houston Astros

Rangers vs Astros Over/Under 

The total has gone over in five out of the last six head-to-head games played between these two teams. The over is 3-1 in their last four meetings in Houston.

Texas Rangers Over/Under trends:

• Over is 8-3 in the Rangers’ last 11 games played overall.

• Over is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 road games.

• Over is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Over is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Over is 4-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Over is 9-3-2 in the Rangers’ last 14 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Over is 3-1-1 in the Rangers’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 8-3 in the Rangers’ last 11 games played on grass.

• Over is 5-2 in the Rangers’ last 7 games versus a right-handed starter.

• Over is 7-3-2 in the Rangers’ last 12 games against the American League West.

• Over is 9-4-1 in the Rangers’ last 14 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Over is 9-4-2 in the Rangers’ last 15 games following a loss.

• Over is 9-4-2 in the Rangers’ last 15 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 12-3-1 in the Rangers’ last 16 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in the Rangers’ last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 5-1 in the Rangers’ last 6 games versus a team with a winning record.

• Under is 13-6-1 in the Rangers’ last 20 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Houston Astros over/under trends:

• Under is 6-2 in the Astros’ last 8 overall.

• Under is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 home games.

• Under is 5-0-1 in the Astros’ last 6 Game 1s of a series.

• Under is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Astros ‘last 5 games following a win.

• Under is 6-2 in the Astros’ last 8 on grass.

• Under is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 8-3 in the Astros’ last 11 Monday games.

• Under is 14-6-2 in the Astros’ last 22 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Under is 9-4 in the Astros’ last 13 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Under is 13-6 in the Astros’ last 19 home games versus a left-handed starter.

• Over is 9-4-1 in the Astros’ last 14 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Astros’ last 7 games against a left-handed starter.

• Over is 9-3 in the Astros’ last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Over is 7-2 in the Astros’ last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Over is 5-1 in Astros’ last 6 home games versus a team with a losing record.

• Over is 4-0-1 in Astros’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Perez has an ERA of under 3 runs this season but the Astros have hit him hard this season in his two starts against Houston last month. Meanwhile, Brown will be making his first start so we don’t really know what to expect from him. But considering his inexperience, I think he will have a hard time containing the Houston offense.

The Astros’ offense has looked impressive even with their current losing streak. Houston is scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game during this rough patch so win or lose here, they should be able to put up runs against Perez as they did in his previous two starts against them.

These teams have combined to score an average of 8.4 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. The last three meetings between these two teams have seen the total hit over. This one should be no different.

Prediction: Over 8

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