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The Golden State Warriors won the last two games of the Houston series even if they played the last five quarters of Games 5 and 6 without their leading scorer Kevin Durant. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson took turns in hitting big shots as the Warriors leaned on the Splash Brothers to put them through the conference finals.
Curry had 31 points in the second half of Game 6 after going scoreless in the first half where Thompson waxed hot in the first half and finished with 27 points including a dagger three pointer with a minute left in the game. Andre Iguodala added 17 points on 5-8 three point shooting for the Dubs in Game 6.
Rise of McCollum
The Blazers have always been known for Dame Time because it’s been Damian Lillard who’s bailed them out so many times during the regular season and the playoffs. But this year, the Blazers have seen the rise of C.J. McCollum who has gone from “just being a 20-point scorer to a legit closer that Portland can count on if Lillard is having a bad night.
McCollum delivered 37 points in the do-or-die Game 7 and he came up with one clutch basket after another in a game where Lillard scored just 13 points on 3-17 shooting. It was also McCollum who carried the Blazers during their 4-overtimes win over the Nuggets in Game 3. Portland is the betting underdog here but given they slayed the 2nd seeded Nuggets, this should be an interesting game and series as a whole.
Who Wins?
The Blazers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Portland is 3-3 in their last six games played at home. The Warriors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 3-1 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Warriors are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Blazers. The Dubs are 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games against the Blazers.
The Blazers have proven their mettle on the road by defeating the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their series. C.J. McCollum continues to prove that Portland is more than just Damian Lillard time when it comes to crunch time. With two closers now, the Blazers are a dangerous team in the playoffs.
The Warriors won Game 6 of their series against the Rockets even without Kevin Durant. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson played like the 2015 Splash Brothers, knocking down one big three pointer after another. Without Durant, the Warriors went back to what made them champions in 2015.
Portland is an interesting opponent but I think this will boil down to the Splash Brothers’ three point shooting. The Warriors have had their ups and down in these playoffs but they’ve been able to deliver when it matters most. Stephen Curry is going to get the better of Seth Curry here. I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 1 of the 2019 Western Conference Finals.
Other Bets To Make
Portland is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Blazers are 3-3 ATS in their last six road games played. Golden State is also 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Dubs are 1-3 ATS in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Warriors are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Blazers.
Trail Blazers
+8 -(110)
Thunder
-8 -(110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/14/19
The Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday games, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an SU win and 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games in May. The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Northwest Division, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in May. Head to head, the Blazers are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 meetings.
The Blazers have beaten the Warriors in four out of their last six meetings and have covered the spread in each of those wins. In their most recent meeting, Portland beat Golden State by 20 points as two point underdogs. While I don’t think Portland is going to win this game outright, the Blazers have covered half of their last six games as road underdogs while the Warriors have failed to cover in 13 out of their last 20 games as home favorites. The Warriors haven’t fared well against the spread this season and Kevin Durant’s absence is only going to make it harder again this time. The Blazers have the firepower to keep pace with the Warriors although I’m not sure if they have enough to beat them. If Curry or Thompson is going to have an off-night, this could be more competitive than anyone thinks. I like the plus points on the visitors here. Prediction: Blazers +8
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Blazers. Portland has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games played. The over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games played. The total has gone under in 28 out of the 47 home games played by the Warriors this season. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Trail Blazers
O 219 (-110)
Thunder
U 219 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/14/19
The over is 4-1 in Portland’s last five games against the Western Conference and 3-2 in the Blazers’ last five games as road underdogs in Golden State. The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five games against the Western Conference but the under is 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Northwest Division. The Blazers have gone over the 219 total in four out of their last five playoff games played while the Warriors have also breached that total in four out of their last five playoff games. Both these teams have dynamic starting backcourts which could light up the scoreboard anytime. I have no doubt this is going to be a shootout more than a defensive game. Prediction: Over 219
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