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The Denver Nuggets shoot for a 2-0 lead in their second-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers when these two teams meet on Wednesday at the Pepsi Center for Game 2 of their second-round series.
No Defense
The Portland Trail Blazers has a good offensive game in Game 1, shooting the ball at a high 51.9%, better than Denver’s 50.9% shooting from the floor. However, the Blazers gave up 121 points, the most points they’ve allowed since the playoffs began. Portland allowed Nikola Jokic to score 37 points and hand-off 6 assists as the Joker controlled the game with his all-around brilliance.
Damian Lillard put up a valiant effort with 39 points, two better than Jokic. But Dame Time wasn’t there in Game 1 as Lillard committed six turnovers and missed eight three-point attempts. Portland got a boost from Enes Kanter, who separated his shoulder against the Spurs. Kanter scored 26 points and grabbed 7 boards but his defense was affected as Jokic just went to town.
Trail Blazers
+150
Nuggets
-170
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/01/19
Jokic’s Big Game
The Nuggets rode Nikola Jokic’s big Game 1. Denver’s unicorn had 37 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists to lead his team to victory, barely 48 hours after playing Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs. Jokic played 43 and 41 minutes in the last two games versus San Antonio, Jokic showed no effects of playing tired as he toyed with Portland’s defense all night long.
Jamal Murray also scored 23 points and issued 8 assists for the Nuggets. Murray also committed just one turnover and helped Mike Malone’s defense slow down Damian Lillard who went off with 50 points during the Blazers’ closeout game against the Thunder. The Nuggets shot 27-31 from the foul line while the Blazers went 20-27 from the stripe.
Who Wins?
Portland is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Blazers are 2-3 SU in their last five games played on the road Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 5-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Blazers. Denver is also 6-0 SU in their last six home games against Portland.
Denver was terrific in Game 1 as they put on the points and then forced Damian Lillard to be uncomfortable. Lillard did score 39 points but he missed 8 out of 12 three-pointers and committed six turnovers. Enes Kanter, who played with a separated shoulder against the Spurs, scored 26 points but he was ineffective against Nikola Jokic.
The Nuggets forced Portland to 18 turnovers while committing 12 of their own. But the Blazers only has six points off turnovers while the Nuggets converted 23 points off the Blazers’ miscues. Considering they lost the game by just 8 points, that difference may have cost the Blazers Game 1.
The Nuggets are 4-1 at the Pepsi Center in the postseason and they were an NBA best 37-4 there during the regular season. The Nuggets also won three out of their four regular-season meetings against the Blazers although they won by an aggregate of just six points. I think Denver is just a much better team at home and the Blazers can’t stop Jokic from doing his thing.
I’m picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in game 2 of their second-round playoff series.
Other Bets To Make
The Blazers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on the road. The Nuggets are also 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Denver is 3-3 ATS in their last six games played at home. Head go head, the Nuggets are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Blazers.
Trail Blazers
+3.5 (-105)
Nuggets
-3.5 (-115)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/01/19
Portland is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games, 21-9 ATS in their last 31 games when playing on one day rest and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Denver is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Western Conference, 6-0 ATS in their last six conference semifinal games and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on one day rest. The Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Denver and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. The Blazers are going to have to do a better job defending the Nuggets. They gave up too many open looks from deep and were helpless in the paint. Maybe the extra day rest will help Kanter’s injuries because, without Nurk, they don’t have another option. Portland is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs while the Nuggets have covered five of their last eight as home favorites. Unless Portland plays defense, they can’t outgun Denver.
Prediction: Nuggets -3.5
The total has gone over is six out of the last 10 games played by the Blazers. The over is 3-2 in Portland’s last five games on the road. The total has also gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go under in four out of their last six home games. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 games between the Blazers and Nuggets.
Trail Blazers
O 219 -110
Nuggets
U 219 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/01/19
The over is 7-3 in the Blazers’ last 10 games against the Northwest Division, 4-1 in their last five games played in May and 21-7-2 in their last 30 games when playing on one day rest. The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games of the Nuggets against Western Conference teams. The over is 5-0 in Denver’s last five games against teams with a winning record and 6-1 in their last seven games against Northwest Division teams. These teams combined for 234 points in Game 1 and the Blazers have gone over in three out of their last four games this postseason with the total hitting at least 228 points in three out of their last four games played. The Nuggets have also gone over in four out of their last playoff games. The total going over 219 in four out of their last six postseason games. With Portland’s rim protectors hurting, I expect Denver to score big again.
Prediction: Over 219
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