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The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers dispute Game 5 of their second-round playoff series at the Pepsi Center on Tuesday night with the grabbing a pivotal 3-2 series lead.
A Missed Chance
The Blazers missed their chance to go up 3-1 in the series. Portland played a good first half and got a big lift from Seth Curry who had 16 points in the game. But the Nuggets took over in the third and their defense limited the Blazers to just a total of 14 points in the third stanza.
Damian Lillard has 28 points for Portland while C.J. McCollum had 29 after playing 60 minutes in Game 3. Portland’s Enes Kanter continues to play through pain as the Turkish big man suffered a shoulder injury in Game 5 of the OKC series. Kanter and Jokic have been physical all series-long and the Blazers need him to stabilize their frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic out for the season.
Trail Blazers
+165
Nuggets
-190
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/07/19
Steadier Nuggets
While the Nuggets are the 2nd seed in the West, they entered the postseason with the least playoff experience. That’s the reason why they had to go the full route against the Spurs in Round 1. That’s also the reason why they fell behind 1-2 to the Blazers after that epic 4-overtime Game 3. But the Nuggets went to Portland and reclaimed home-court edge by being the steadier team in Game 4.
Jamal Murray made all of his 11 free throws and finished with 34 points while Nikola Jokic had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in his second straight triple-double effort and the Nuggets handed the Blazers their first home loss of the current postseason. Torrey Craig missed the game for the Nuggets who are looking to take the driver’s seat in the series.
Who Wins?
The Blazers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Portland is 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Denver is 4-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Blazers. Denver is also 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Portland.
The Blazers had their chance to win Game 4, taking a six point lead at the half. But Denver exploded to outscore Portland 27-14 in the third period as the Nuggets took a seven point lead at the end of three. Denver proved to be more steady down the stretch as the hung on to win 116-112. Now the Nuggets are basketball betting favorites again and the Blazers are back to their underdog role in this series.
The Nuggets have not played like a #2 ranked team in the postseason. The Spurs took them to seven games in Round 1 and now they are deadlocked 2-2 against the Blazers. Denver entered the postseason with the least playoff experience among Top 4 teams and it’s showing. Despite that, they have found ways to win and are growing up on the fly.
Denver was the best home team during the regular season and they were 13-3 in games decided by three points or less and 12-1 in back to back games. After that epic Game 3, I think order has been restored and the Nuggets should take the 3-2 lead in the series. Denver has the better team and has home court advantage here. I’m picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 5 of their second-round playoff series.
Other Bets To Make
The Blazers are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. Portland is 2-2 ATS in their last four games played on the road. The Nuggets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Denver is 3-2 ATS in their last five games played. Head to head, the Nuggets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Blazers.
Trail Blazers
+4.5 (-110)
Nuggets
-4.5 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/07/19
The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Northwest Division. Portland is 4-15-1 in their last 20 playoff games while being underdogs on the road. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against their Northwest Division rivals. The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS in their last five home games against the West. The Blazers had their chance in Game 4 but the Nuggets have once again proven that while they are inexperienced, they are resilient and willing to learn on the fly. Denver’s back at home where they were the best in the league during the regular season. Murray and Jokic have proven their mettle. The rest of the Nuggets should take their lead.
Prediction: Nuggets -4.5
The over is 6-4 in the Blazers’ last 10 games played. The under is 18-12 in the Blazers last 30 road games against the Western Conference. Denver has seen the total go over in seven out of their last 10 games played. The under is 3-2 in the Nuggets’ last five home games. Head to head, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these two teams.
Trail Blazers
O 213.5 -110
Nuggets
U 213.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 5/07/19
The over is 4-1 in the Blazers’ last five games played against Western Conference teams. The over is 7-3 in Denver’s last 10 games against the West. The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 20 home games played by the Nuggets against the Blazers. These teams have gone over the total in three out of their four games this series. The teams have scored at least 228 in three out of four games. Denver averaged 112.72 points per game at home this season. That shouldn’t make it too tough for Portland to help in getting the total over 213.5 Prediction: Over 213.5
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