Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds 5/27/19 Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates begin a four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds on Monday at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

Top pitching prospect Mitch Keller gets the nod to open for the Pirates on Monday. The 23-year-old right-hander will be making his first ever Major League start. Pittsburgh selected Keller in the second round of the 2014 MLB Draft. He is 5-0 with an ERA of 3.45 in nine starts for Triple-A Indianapolis.

The 6-2 righty has been both impressive and dominant in the minors. He has two seasons with sub-.300 ERAs and his overall ERA in the minors is 3.06. Keller has struck out a total of 499 batters in a total of 482.2 innings pitched. He was a starter at the Futures Games last year and boasted a sharp curveball and an upper-90’s fastball.

Josh Bell is the Pirates’ main man on offense. The 26-year old first baseman leads the team with his .339 batting average. Bell is also the team leader with a total of 47 RBIs and 16 home runs this season. Meanwhile, Adam Frazier and Melky Cabrera have combined for 29 RBIs on 93 hits. As a team, Pittsburgh has scored a total of 197 runs this season at a batting average of .247.

For the Reds, it will be right-hander Sonny Gray who will start on top of the hill on Monday. The 29-year old Vanderbilt product has started in a total of 10 games this season and has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 3.78, a WHIP of 1.22 and a BAA of .225. The Reds are 4-6 in Gray’s 10 starts this season.

The Nashville, Tennessee native has pitched in a total of 50.0 innings this season an has allowed a total of 23 runs ( 21 earned) on 41 hits with four home runs while walking 20 batters and striking out 57 hitters. In his last outing, Gray got his first win of the season by pitching 5.0 scoreless innings and allowing just five hits during the Reds’ 3-0 win over the Brewers on May 21st.

Shortstop Jose Iglesias top Cincinnati with his .304 batting average while third baseman Eugenio Sanchez leads the Reds with 37 RBIs and a total of 14 home runs on 42 hits this season. The Reds are currently batting at a .224 clip while scoring a total of 213 runs this year.

Who Wins?

The Pirates are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road. The Reds are also 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. Cincinnati is 3-3 SU in their last six games played at home. Head to head, the Pirates are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Reds. Pittsburgh is also 7-3 SU in their last 10 road games against Cincinnati.

The Pirates are 5-0 SU in their last five Game 2s of a double-header, 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against the National League Central but are only 1-4 SU in their last five games overall. The Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 Game 2s of a series, 3-7 SU in their last 10 Monday games and 16-37 SU in their last 53 games against the National League Central.

The Pirates are 6-2 SU in their last eight meetings in Cincinnati and 19-7 SU in their last 26 games overall. Meanwhile, Gray is 0-3 with an ERA of 5.19 in his career against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is going to parade its top pitching prospect and no question Mitch Keller has the stuff to make it in the Majors. However, when it comes to betting, I just can’t lay my money of someone who is untested and despite his credentials, is an unknown force in the big leagues. Gray has struggled against the Pirates but he’s pitched good overall this season and is coming off his best outing of the season where he held Milwaukee scoreless in six innings while playing on the road. I’m picking the Cincinnati Reds to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates on 5/27/19.

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Other Bets To Make

Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 10 games played on the road. Cincinnati is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Reds are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played at home.

The Pirates have outscored the Reds by 1.67 runs per game in their last three meetings and 1.3 runs in their last 10 meetings. The Pirates’ last nine games overall have been decided by two or more runs while eight out of the Reds’ last nine games have been settled by at least two runs. Prediction: Reds -1.5

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The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Pirates. Pittsburgh has seen the total go over in four out of their last six games played on the road. The under is 31-18-1 in the Reds’ 50 games played this season. The total has gone under in four out of the last six home games played by Cincinnati. Head to head, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati.

The Pirates have scored an average of six runs per game in their last three games played while the Reds have put up an average of seven runs per game. Given their defensive shortcomings, Gray’s history against the Pirates and the fact that Keller is making his first Major League start, I expect this to be a high-scoring game. Prediction: Over 9

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