Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 7/4/19 MLB Odds and Pick

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves close out a three-game set on Thursday night at the Sun Trust Park in Atlanta, Georgia.

Right-hander Zach Eflin gets the start for the Phillies on Thursday. The 25-year old from Orlando in Florida has started in a total of 16 games this season and has a record of 7-7. Eflin has an ERA of 3.34, a WHIP of 1.25 and a BAA of .257. Philly is 4-6 in Eflin’s last 10 starts this season.

Eflin has allowed a total of 40 runs, 36 of which are earned, on 97 hits with 15 home runs. He has struck out a total of 80 hitters while walking 24 batters. In his last outing, Eflin gave up three earned runs on eight hits in 6.0 innings. He got the loss as the Phillies dropped a 6-9 decision.

Bryce Harper has 60 RBIs to lead Philadelphia while Rhys Hoskins has 22 home runs to lead the Phillies. Second baseman Cesar Hernandez leads the team with his .280 batting average. The Phillies are hitting at a .243 clip and have scored a total of 416 runs on the season.

Mike Soroka will open on top of the Hill for the home team. The 21-year-old right-hander from Calgary, Alberta in Canada has started in a total of 14 games this season and has a record of 9-1 with an ERA of 2.13, a WHIP of 0.98 and a BAA of .206. Atlanta is 8-2 SU in Soroka’s last 10 starts this season.

In a total of 84.2 innings pitched this season, Soroka has surrendered a total of 24 runs ( 20 of which were earned ) on 64 hits with just four home runs given up. On the other hand, the right-hander has struck out a total of 67 batters while walking 19 hitters. In his last start, Soroka gave up just two earned runs in 6.1 innings as Atlanta beat the New York Mets 6-2 last June 28.

First baseman Freddie Freeman has been the top offensive contributor for the Braves this season. Freeman has a total of 65 RBIs and 22 home runs to lead Atlanta while also hitting a team-best .308. As a team, the Braves have scored a total of 470 runs on a .263 batting average.

Who Wins?

The Phillies are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Philadelphia is 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road. The Braves are also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. Atlanta is 24-18 SU in 42 home games played this season. Head to head, the Phillies are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings but the Braves are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games against the Phillies. Atlanta is also 13-7 SU in their last 20 games against the National League.

Philadelphia is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Phillies are also 2-6 SU in Elfin’s last and 7-19 in Elfin’s last 26 road starts. On the other hand, Atlanta is 8-0 in Soroka’s last 8 starts against the National League East,  6-0 in his last six starts with 5 days of rest and 14-3 SU in Soroka’s last 17 starts overall.

Eflin has been solid against the Braves as he’s allowed just two earned runs in his last three starts versus Atlanta. On the other hand, Soroka has a 2.13 ERA and has not made many mistakes this season. I’m looking at a close and low-scoring contest here. I think the Phillies are going to make a game out of this but the baseball betting favorites Atlanta should pull off the win by taking advantage of scoring opportunities in the latter part of the game. I’m picking the home team to win this game. Prediction: Atlanta Braves

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Other Bets To Make

Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Phillies are 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road. Atlanta is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played. The Braves are 19-23 SU in 42 home games played this season.

The Braves have outscored the Phillies by 6.33 runs per game in their last three meetings. The Phillies’ last six games were decided by two or more runs and they are coming off a 7 run loss to the Braves the last time out. I think the Braves will win by at least two runs here. Prediction: Braves -1.5

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The over is 5-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 10 games played. The over is 21-19-1 in Philadelphia’s 41 road games played this season. The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Braves. The over is 25-14-3 in Atlanta’s 42 home games played this season. Head to head, the under is 2-1 in the last three meetings between these two teams.

The total has gone under in all five games played by the Phillies in July. Nine of Atlanta’s last 13 games have seen the total go under. I think Soroka delivers another splendid pitching effort here. Elfin’s pitching well as of late too and the Braves have cooled down. Scoring just 4.75 runs per game in their last four games. This should go below the total. Prediction: Under 10.5

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