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The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans face off at the Beaver Stadium in University Park on Saturday, 10/13/18.
Both the Nittany Lions and Spartans are coming off losses. Penn State suffered their first loss of the season after falling to Ohio State 26-27. On the other hand, Michigan State is still hurting from a 19-29 home defeat at the hands of Northwestern.
First Loss Of The Season
Before taking a bye last week, the Penn State Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the then 4th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions appeared to be on their way to their fifth straight win as they were up 26-14 with eight minutes left in the game. But two late scores by Dwayne Haskins erased the deficit and gave the Buckeyes the win.
For 3 and a half quarters, the Nittany Lions dominated the 2nd ranked team in the nation. However, they were unable to close the show as they only converted three out of 17 third downs and could not make defensive stops down the stretch. Missed tackles in Ohio State’s final two drives led to two scores which doomed the Nittany Lions.
Penn State vs Michigan State 10/13/18
Moneyline Odds: Penn State -505, Michigan State +410
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18
Coming Up Short
The Michigan State Spartans rallied from an early 3-14 deficit against Northwestern, took a 19-14 lead with 4:08 remaining in the third period before coming up short late in the game to lose 29-19. The Spartans sputtered in their final four possessions as they punted twice and turned the ball over twice on downs.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke completed 31 out of 51 passes for 329 yards with one score and one pick. For the season, Lewerke may be having a sophomore slump as he is completing just 64.2% of his passes for a total of 1,328 yards but with only six touchdowns and six interceptions. Against Penn State, Lewerke has to throw better if they want a chance because the Spartans don’t have much of a running game right now.
Who Wins?
Penn State is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games and 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home. Michigan State is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games but 4-8 SU in their last 12 games on the road. Michigan State is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games versus Penn State but only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games versus the Nittany Lions on the road.
Last year, The Spartans upset the Nittany Lions 27-24 in Michigan. The then 24th seeded Spartans trailed by three points at the start of the fourth quarter but then shut down the then 7th ranked Nittany Lions in the final frame. Michigan State held Penn State to 65 rushing yards the entire game with Saquon Barkley accounting for 63 of them.
Not only do the Nittany Lions want to bounce back from their first week of the season but also from last season’s loss to Michigan State, both of which were won games they squandered. There will be no room for errors here. Penn State should’ve beaten Ohio State. Michigan State lost to a banged up Northwestern team the last time out. Do the math. Penn State has bigger motives here.
We’re picking Penn State to beat Michigan State on 10/13/18 but at -505 there’s little value on the moneyline right now. Let’s look at the other bets to find out if there are juicy ones.
Other Bets To Make
Penn State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. Head to head, the Nittany Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games in Penn State.
Penn State vs Michigan State 10/13/18
Spread Odds: Penn State -13.5 (-110), Michigan State +13.5 (-110)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18
Penn State is looking to bounce back after that sorry one point home loss and they’ve had a couple of weeks to let that sink in. Now is the time for payback and Michigan State may be in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Nittany Lions put up 50 points per game while their defense allows just 196.2 yards per game, 33rd in the nation.
Prediction: Penn State -13.5
The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 7 games of Michigan State. The total has also gone over in 5 out their last 7 games on the road. The total is 4-1 in the last 5 home games for Penn State and in 7 out of their last 8 games overall.
Penn State vs Michigan State 10/13/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 56 +110, Under 56 -130
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18
The over is 15-3 in the last 18 games between Penn State and Michigan State with an average combined score of 59.06 with the score going under 50 points just twice over the 18-game period. Penn State has the 5th best offense in the nation with their 49.6 points per game average. On the other hand, The over is 6-1 in Michigan State’s last 7 games with the average combined score of 51.29 in the last three.
Prediction: Over 56
Sure, Penn State is most likely to win this game but at -505. The Nittany Lions are also pegged at a better -110 with -a 13.5 point spread but that’s still at a premium. Give me the plus money on the OVER 56 points.
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