Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors Pick

The Golden State Warriors open their bid for a third consecutive NBA title and their fourth in the last five years as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on ring night at the Oracle Arena in Oakland on Tuesday night as the NBA’s 2018-19 season officially opens on October 16, 2018.

Live and Die With Russ

Since Kevin Durant deserted OKC in favor of Golden State two years back, the Oklahoma City Thunder have lived and died with Russell Westbrook. Russ is coming off back to back triple double seasons where he has done most of the damage for the Thunder. This has resulted to Westbrook winning his first NBA MVP the other season.

But Westbrook’s 2018-19 season may begin on the bench after he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his nagging right knee last month and is expected to miss “possibly the first few games of the season”. While how many games Russ misses has yet to be determined, Westbrook has yet to be cleared for Tuesday’s opener with one day to go, making him a doubtful starter for the Thunder against the Dubs.

In his place, the newly acquired Dennis Schroder should take charge and with Paul George returning to his superstar form during the preseason, the Thunder should be able to weather the storm while Westbrook is on the mend. However, the Warriors should be a different story as the defending champions are seeking a third straight NBA title.

What’re the Odds?

OKC Thunder vs Golden State Warriors
Moneyline Odds: Thunder +550, Warriors -800
Odds from Betway as of 10/14/18

Gunning For A Three Peat

The Golden State Warriors have dominated the NBA in the previous four seasons. However, the road to their third NBA title in four years was probably their hardest. Issues inside the locker room were rumored to have existed and on the court, the Houston Rockets bested them as the best regular season team in the NBA. But the Dubs stepped up when they needed to in the playoffs and they won back to back titles by sweeping the Cavs in the 2018 NBA Finals.

As usual, the sweet shooting Splash Brothers will carry the flag for the Warriors. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have been lights out in preseason play. And oh yes, don’t forget that the NBA Finals MVP for the past two seasons is looking better than ever. Kevin Durant has really made all the difference for the Warriors the last two seasons as he’s emerged as the team’s top scoring threat and leader.

The Dubs lost Javale McGee and ZaZa Pachulia during the offseason but they’ve even gotten better with the addition of All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins. However, Boogie won’t be ready for action until probably the midway part of the season. But remember that the Dubs won the title (and their previous two titles) without him so that should not be an issue here.

Who Wins?

The Warriors have won 9 out of the last 11 games between these teams although they went 2-2 head to head last season. OKC won their first two meetings of the 2017-18 season before the Dubs came back to win the last two.

Oklahoma City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games while the Dubs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games and 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played at the Oracle Arena. Head to head, the Warriors are 9-2 SU in the last 11 games between these teams and the Dubs are also 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings between these teams in Oakland.

Golden State is going to raise a championship banner for the third opening night in four seasons and for the second straight season. There’s always that chance that the champs are going to be distracted with all the celebration surrounding last season’s title. But given the trends and given that this is the most dominant team in the NBA since 2015, there’s no reason to doubt the Warriors.

Betting Prediction

The Thunder will open the season without swiss knife Andre Roberson, Terrance Ferguson and Abdel Nadel who are out due to injury. But the key here could be the absence of Russell Westbrook who has not been cleared to play in this game as of 10/14/18. We know that everything in OKC begins and ends with Russell Westbrook, Paul George notwithstanding. Even with Westbrook playing, I was going to pick the Dubs anyway. His absence makes the pick much easier.

We’re picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on 10/16/18. However, given that the Dubs are heavy favorites in this contest, there’s not much value in their moneyline odds so I’m going to take a look at the other bets.

Place Your Bet Here

Other Bets To Make

The OKC Thunder are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road while the Golden State Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Head to head, the Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played versus the Thunder. Likewise, Golden State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played against OKC at Oracle Arena. The home team in this matchup has a record of 16-6-1 in the last 23 games between these two teams.

What’re the Odds?

OKC Thunder vs Golden State Warriors
Spread Odds: Thunder +11.5 (-105), Warriors -11.5 (-115)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/14/18

Last season, the Warriors ranked third in the league in point differential with their +6.0 points per game against their opponents. Now factor in that Russell Westbrook may not be playing in this contest or even if he plays, he may not be at full strength yet. OKC will also be without Carmelo Anthony who was one of their top scorers last season so while Paul George has played fantastic during preseason, he may not have enough support to get into a fire fight with the loaded Dubs.

Betting Prediction

Golden State is only missing DeMarcus Cousins but considering he wasn’t here last season, the Warriors are practically playing on full strength. We saw Steph Curry and Klay Thompson shoot the lights out during limited action in preseason play. With Kevin Durant playing on a contract season, the Dubs should come out firing on opening night. Without Westbrook, the Warriors should easily cover the spread.

Prediction: Warriors -11.5

Place Your Bet Here

The total has gone under in 11 out of the last 16 games played by the Thunder and in 6 out of their last 8 games. The unders is also 11-3 in the last 14 games of the Warriors and the under is also 4-2 in the Dubs’ last 6 home games. Head to head, the total has gone under in the last five games between these teams and also under in the last five games between these two squads in Oakland.

What’re the Odds?

OKC Thunder vs Golden State Warriors
Over/Under Odds: Over 224 -110, Under 224 -110
Odds from Betway as of 10/14/18

Betting Prediction

No question the Dubs can put up the numbers. The question is whether OKC, without Russell Westbrook, can put up enough points on the board to keep up with the Splash Brothers and company. Aside from Westbrook, OKC will be without Roberson and considering Carmelo Anthony from last season is also no longer around. Sure, Dennis Schroder is a big addition but he may not be enough. I think the Warriors can put up 120 points here but I don’t think the Thunder can make up for the remainder of the points.

Prediction: Under 224

Place Your Bet Here

The sure bet is the Warriors winning straight up but I’m not sure whether you want to bet on them at -800. The best value bet for the Dubs right now is the -110 for the over/under odds but between picking the Under 224 and the Warriors winning by at least 12 points and covering the points spread, I’m more confident with the latter simply because Westbrook is a doubtful starter in this game.