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The Ohio State Buckeyes look to keep their unbeaten record as they take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday, 10/20/18 at the Ross-Ade Stadium in the campus of Purdue University in Lafayette, Indiana.
Struggles On The Ground
At first glance, the Ohio State Buckeyes look like they have the perfect season. They are undefeated at 8-0 and are currently ranked as the 2nd best team in the country. Their quarterback is one of the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy. But if you take a close look at the Buckeyes, there are far from being perfect and in fact have one glaring weakness-their ground game.
Despite that, the Buckeyes have one of the best passing games in the business. That’s because of the impressive play of quarterback Dwayne Haskins. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for a total of 2,331 yards this season with 28 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. Haskins has completed 72.3% of his passes and is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt through seven games played.
Ohio State vs Purdue 10/20/18
Moneyline Odds: Ohio State -550, Purdue +445
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/18/18
Purdue On A Roll
Purdue is on a roll right now as the Boilermakers have won three consecutive games heading into this contest. Although they have their work cut out against the Buckeyes, the Boilermakers enter this game oozing with confidence.
Quarterback David Blough has thrown for an average of 393.25 yard per game in the last four games or since taking over the starting job in week 3. Blough has thrown 10 touchdowns with only two interceptions over that period and is the main reason why Purdue has won its last three games by an average winning margin of 14 points per game.
Who Wins?
The Ohio State Buckeyes are 5-0 SU in their last five games and 22-3 SU in their last 25 games on the road. Meanwhile, Purdue is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games but are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games against Ohio State. Ohio State has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings between these teams with an average winning margin of 13 points.
Purdue gave up 582 yards to a winless Nebraska team and then allowed Missouri to go over 600 yards on them. If you compare offenses, Ohio State has a much better offense, regardless of how they’ve failed to run the football as expected. Given that Purdue allows close to 270 passing yards per game this season, expect a big game from Heisman favorite Dwayne Haskins. That should mean plenty of points and another win for the Buckeyes.
We’re picking Ohio State to beat Purdue on 10/20/18. At -550 though, you may want to take a look at the other bets first.
Other Bets To Make
Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and also 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road. On the other hand, Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road. Head to head, the Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Ohio State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against Ohio State.
Ohio State vs Purdue 10/20/18
Spread Odds: Ohio State -13.5 (-105), Purdue +13.5 (-115)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/18/18
The Buckeyes kept their clean slate last week but despite a 30-14 win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Ohio State has not been able to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. The oddsmakers have been high on the Buckeyes as they have been double digits favorites in all but one of their games this season, including by five times by 27 points or more. The 13.5 spread over Purdue is a breath of fresh air but considering the Boilermakers have covered the spread in 7 out of the last 10 meetings between these teams and have won their last three games by an aggregate score of 118-48, the Boilermakers are a dangerous foe here. I fancy the plus points of Purdue and am going to take it.
Prediction: Purdue +13.5
The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 8 games played by Ohio State, over in the last four games after the Buckeyes ran for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game and the total is also 16-7 in the last 23 home games played by Purdue including four out of the last five.
Ohio State vs Purdue 10/20/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 66.5 -110, Under 66.5 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/18/18
The Buckeyes are going to score the points, there’s absolutely no question about that. But their inability to run the football and grind out yards on the ground will keep them from controlling the clock. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have historically struggled in big games but have scored at least 30 points in their last four games. I’m looking forward to a quarterback showdown here with Purdue scoring in the high twenties or low thirties. That said, I’m going with the over.
Prediction: Over 66.5
I’m picking Ohio State to win this game however, I’m not confident with their ability to cover the spread as they’ve not been good at that this season. The over 66.5 is my best value pick here at -110. As stated, the Buckeyes do not have a running game that is going to kill the time and stop the Boilermakers from putting points on the board. Purdue has scored more than 30 points in four straight games and have topped 40 in their last two outings. I have no doubt the teams are going to cover the total.
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