NHL Pick of the Week - Nashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights

On one hand, it’s great to see all of the league’s top talent (and there’s a lot of talent in the NHL these days, more than we’ve seen in a long time) gathered onto one sheet of ice to showcase their skills. Whether it’s the skills challenge or the 3-on-3 tournament that has replaced the traditional All-Star Game, it’s must-watch TV for any hockey enthusiast who appreciates just how good these guys really are.

Technically, the NHL picks of the week feature won’t be interrupted, since the NHL season resumes once again on Monday. But when teams are off for four or five days off in the middle of the campaign, it can often take a few games for teams to get back “into the groove” and resume their normal tendencies — making handicapping a bit more difficult. Hopefully when things resume after the All-Star Break, we’ll be able to pick up where we left off.

In the meantime, let’s try to push the current run to 7-1 with one last winner before the NHL midseason classic. I’ve circled a marquee game between the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights as the best opportunity on the Wednesday board. Let’s break it down.

It’s not often that you’ll find the Predators in the underdog role, but that’s what they’ve been assigned tonight for their visit to Vegas. Nashville paid +111 on the moneyline at the time of writing, while the Golden Knights were a -123 favorite. Early bettors haven’t seen much value in either side, with the line not moving much at all from an opener of Nashville +109/Vegas -120 at BetOnline.

Regardless of which side or outcome that you’re backing in this game, BetOnline is the place to do it. There was only “12 cents” difference between their odds on the moneyline and total, compared to the 20 cents of vigorish (or more) that most sportsbooks had factored into their line for this game. The smaller the difference between odds on a favorite and underdog, the smaller the profit margin for the book and the more favorable the odds for you, the bettor.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline.ag at 11:00 a.m. eastern on January 23, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

For the better part of a decade, the Predators were consistently a decent team but never seemed to be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Of course, that all changed in the spring of 2017, when eighth-seeded Nashville shocked the hockey world by sweeping the powerful Chicago Blackhawks in the opening round, then riding that momentum all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. And even though that Cinderella run ended with a loss to Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins, there was no Stanley Cup hangover in the Music City last season as the Predators finished atop the Western Conference standings.

If there’s one reason for Nashville’s recent mediocrity, I think it’s a lack of focus and effort in the defensive end of the rink. Prior to a 4-1 win in Colorado on Monday night, the Preds had allowed 28 goals in their previous six games, hardly the high level of defensive efficiency we’ve come to expect out of Peter Laviolette’s charges. Speaking of Laviolette, it’s possible his defensive-minded approach is wearing a bit thin as well. Every coach has his shelf life, and Laviolette has seen his shelf life expire in previous stops in Philadelphia and Carolina. Even though the Preds have been extremely successful under the head coach, playing Laviolette’s hard-checking style can get old after a while. Usually when that happens, we see the first signs at the defensive end.

If you read the writeup of last week’s NHL pick of the week (when I successfully bet against Vegas), you’re already aware of the Golden Knights’ story this season. But just in case you didn’t, the Knights have spent the last couple of months proving that last year’s incredible run to the Stanley Cup final — making them the first team since the 1960s to reach the championship series in its inaugural season — was no fluke. After a slow start to the campaign, the Knights have gone 21-7-3 in their last 31 games, relying on the same formula of great goaltending by Marc-Andre Fleury, responsible defensive play and balanced scoring.

Like Nashville, however, the Knights haven’t been nearly as stingy defensively of late. Vegas has given up 17 goals in its last five games — hardly cause for alarm, but still a noticeable increase for a team that had allowed just seven in its previous five. And as I noted earlier, special teams haven’t been inflating those statistics, with the Vegas penalty kill surrendering just two power play goals in its last 16 times shorthanded.

When good teams are struggling in a certain area of the game (such as offense, defense or special teams), a natural reaction for many bettors is to expect them to place a high focus on that area and immediately correct those issues. For example, with the Predators and Golden Knights both having a tough time keeping the puck out of their net lately, you might be inclined to expect them to play a conservative style tonight — making the Under look appealing.

In the final game for each team before a week off for the NHL All-Star Break, I’m not expecting both sides to suddenly become defensive powerhouses once again. I am, however, expecting them to play a tightly-contested game, which works for the Over more than you may think. When both teams are contributing goals, it doesn’t take five or six from one side to see a game go Over the total. In fact, if both squads get at least three, we’re guaranteed to see at least seven goals, an angle I love to play when betting Over/Under in the NHL.