NHL Pick of the Week - Columbus Blue Jackets vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Is the Over the way to go once again this week, or might we see a rare defensive struggle between these high-flying squads? Of course, it’s possible that the best value in this game might also be on one of these sides, whether it’s the Lightning as a home favorite or the road-warrior Blue Jackets to earn another victory in enemy territory.

Let’s break it down and figure out which way is the best way to bet this one.

As always, any analysis of the best way to bet a game should begin with the betting odds that are offered. If the odds on an underdog are more generous than we think they should be, the underdog is a smart bet — regardless of whether they’re more likely to lose the game than to win it. As long as we keep making wagers that pay better than they should, we’re going to come out ahead in the long run.

As I suggested in the introduction, games between high-scoring teams often see an Over/Under of 6.5, so it’s no surprise to see this game lined at that price. At the time of writing, odds on the Over 6.5 were slightly juiced (-110) while the Under 6.5 paid even money (+100).

Finally, we should never forget to take a look at the puck line, which allows us to either bet the favorite at an underdog return or take the underdog with a bit extra insurance. Tampa -1.5 (win by 2 goals or more) pays +145, although just 18 of the Lightning’s 32 wins have come by more than 1 goal. Columbus +1.5 isn’t cheap (-165), and 12 of the Blue Jackets’ 17 losses have come by more than 1 goal, making me think this isn’t an avenue worth pursuing.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline.ag at 9:00 p.m. eastern on January 8, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

After spinning their wheels early in the season, the Blue Jackets have finally gotten on a roll. Columbus comes into this game having earned points in 9 of its last 11 games overall (8-2-1), and the Jackets have also won 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Not that success away from home has ever been much of an issue for Columbus this year — the boys from southern Ohio are among the league leaders in road victories, with their 13 road wins just 2 behind Tampa for the most in the NHL.

Even more alarming is the opposition that the Blue Jackets have been giving up all of these goals to. Florida, Carolina, Philadelphia, Ottawa and the Rangers have all scored 3 goals against Columbus over the past couple of weeks, all squads who would miss the playoffs if the regular season were to end today. Columbus was able to win 4 of those 5 games by capitalizing on those teams’ leaky defenses, but scoring at least 4 goals to beat Tampa Bay is a different challenge altogether.

It’s easy to want to bet on the best team in the NHL, but there are a couple intangibles about the Lightning here that makes me nervous to back the Bolts.

The second thing that is risky about backing the Lightning here is that the team is playing its first game after a 3-game west coast road trip. Playing 3 consecutive games in California can play tricks on your body clock, and it’s common to see home teams come out a bit flat in their first game after a long road trip. A 3-game trip isn’t exactly long by NHL standards, but the distance covered certainly was. The silver lining for Tampa Bay is that the Lightning has had 2 days off to recover since the road trip ended Saturday, but it’s still not an ideal situation to back the big favorite.

Finally, the last time Tampa Bay hosted Columbus, the Lightning handed the Blue Jackets a humiliating 8-2 defeat October 13 at Amalie. Not only does that make it a possibility that Tampa players take the Jackets a little lightly in this spot (it’s only human nature), but it also motivates Columbus to come in and play a much better game this time.

One reason our win-loss record has been so good with this NHL Pick Of The Week series has been a reluctance to take many big underdogs (over +150 or higher). Don’t get me wrong, I haven’t taken many (if any) favorites higher than -130, but I typically look to pick games that I fully expect to win, not just looking for value.

However, I’m going to break that mould here. Given the Blue Jackets’ success on the road this season, the tough situational factors facing Tampa Bay and the revenge angle that benefits Columbus, I think the Jackets have a great chance of stealing a victory tonight in Tampa.

Look for Columbus to bring a defense-first mentality to the rink tonight, with its players knowing that they can’t afford to let up at all against this explosive Tampa Bay attack. I’m personally playing the Blue Jackets Moneyline +159 here in a game that I think Columbus has about a 45% chance of winning, giving us great value (+120 would be fair return for a 45% probability). But if you’re looking to reduce your risk a bit, other options could be to play the Blue Jackets Team Total Over 2.5 or — if your sportsbook offers it — Columbus +0.5 in regulation time, meaning that you win your wager as long as the Jackets get this game into overtime (or win outright).

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Good luck and we’ll see you again next week!