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It’s still very early in the season but it seems that the oddsmakers are already waving the white flag on the Buffalo Bills.
That’s because the Bills have opened as massive 16.5 underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 3 matchup at the U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. Since 2014, only the New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints have been installed as at least a +16.5 favorite in a regular season NFL game.
The Bills are the only double digit underdogs as the Week 3 lines opened. However, there are two undefeated squads which opened as underdogs in their week 3 assignments. Let’s take a quick look a the Bills vs Vikings game and a couple more games where we believe there are value picks:
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings 9/23/18 1:00 PM E.T.
As we said earlier, the Bills opened as the biggest favorites for week 3. In fact, that 16.5 spread has currently ballooned to 17.0 as of 9/17/18:
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings 9/23/18
Spread Odds: Buffalo +17 (-117), Minnesota -17 (-103)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 9/17/18
This is only the third time since 1990 where Minnesota has been favored to win by at least 16 points. The Vikings are 2-0 SU in those games but are 1-0-1 ATS in those games. On the other hand, this is the first time since the 2007 season where Buffalo has been and underdog by at least 16.5 points. The last time out, Buffalo lost to the Patriots 7-38.
While +17 looks tempting at first glance, this contest has the makings of a blowout win by the Vikings. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen will make his first career road start for the Bills and he will play behind an offensive line that has let its quarterback get sacked a total of 11 times in two weeks
The Bills are 7-12-3 ATS in their last 22 games on the road and they are 2-6 SU in their last eight games away from home. On the other hand, the Vikings are 16-5 ATS in their last 17 games at home and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall and unbeaten in their last 5 games at home. I’ll take the home team here.
Prediction: Minnesota -17
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 9/23/18 1:00 PM E.T.
We also talked about 2 unbeaten teams being underdogs this week and one of those are the Kansas City Chiefs. The Kansas City offense is looking impressive so far and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is playing like the early MVP with 10 touchdowns (more than any QB through two weeks) in two games against two solid defenses in the Chargers and Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs 9/23/18
Spread Odds: San Francisco +6.5 (-110), Kansas City -6.5 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
What will impress you more is that Kansas City is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS while playing on the road in the first two weeks of the season. With the Chiefs finally playing at home in Week 3, it’s really hard to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs right now. With an expected full house crowd cheering the home team after their rousing start, I expect the Chiefs to continue rolling here.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games at home. Against the 49ers, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and an even better 4-1 ATS when playing the Niners in Kansas City. And don’t forget that San Francisco has not won in Kansas City since 1982 and are only 3-12 in their last 15 1:00 PM games. Perhaps the one trend going the Niners way is the fact that they were 5-2 as road underdogs last season.
Prediction: Kansas City -6.5
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions 9/23/18 8:20 PM ET
If there’s any team worth betting after coming off a loss, it’s none other than the New England Patriots. Since the 2016 NFL season, New England is an impressive 5-0 both SU and ATS in a game following a loss. If that isn’t good enough for you, history also tells us that the Patriots are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 Sunday Night Football game appearances including 7-3 ATS in those 10 games.
The Jaguars outgained the Patriots 481-302 total yards last week as Blake Bortles threw for 377 passing yards. On the other side, the Patriots couldn’t get their offense going, whether it was on the air or on the ground. New England’s rushing game was limited to 82 yards on 24 carries but against the Lions, expect the trio of Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel and James White to be a problem for the Detroit defense.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions 9/23/18
Odds: New England -265, Detroit +225
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
Bill Belicheck will also be coaching against one of his former assistants and that’s not something that has worked well in the past too. Now let’s go to the trends: New England is 16-2 SU in their last 8 games on the road and 6-1 SU in their last 7 meetings against Detroit.
Prediction: New England -265
Alternately, the Patriots are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Lions. The spread is currently set at 6.5:
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions 9/23/18
Spread Odds: New England -6.5 (-110), Detroit +6.5 (-110)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
I have a feel that Brady’s short passes to his three running backs are going to make the difference here and I think that coming off a loss, New England is going to bounce back with a big win against the Lions.
Prediction: New England -6.5
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