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The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies play in Game 3 of a three game set at the Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on 9/19/18.
The Phillies tied the series on Tuesday behind a five run sixth inning which gave them a 5-2 win. Jorge Alfaro punctuated Philly’s big sixth inning with a three run home run which helped the Phillies move to within 5.5 games of the first place Atlanta Braves in the National League East division.
The Braves have lost three games in a row but the Phillies failed to make ground as they lost to the Marlins on Sunday and to the Mets in Game 1 of this three game set. On Tuesday, the Phillies finally took advantage and look to continue to move closer on Wednesday in the season series finale between these teams.
Playing Spoilers Role
The Mets won’t be going to the playoff this season as they are 13 games off the National League East leaders. However, New York has played very well against the Phillies this season, having beaten them in 11 out of their last 18 meetings including Monday’s 9-4 win in Game 1 of this set. They will continue to play the spoilers role as they conclude their season series on Wednesday.
Noah Syndergaard will open on top of the hill for the Mets. The 28 year old right hander has started in a total of 22 games this season and has posted a record of 12-3 with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP 1.26.
The right hander has alternated quality starts and rocky outings since August and he will try to break that pattern against a team where he hasn’t had a quality start against this season. Syndergaard has pitched three times against the Phillies this season, going 1-1 with an ERA of 5.5 and is 5-2 with an ERA of 2.96 in his career against Philadelphia.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 9/19/18 Odds
Odds: Mets -116, Phillies +106
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/18/18
Keeping Their Playoff Hopes Alive
The Phillies kept their playoff hopes alive by snapping a two games skid on Tuesday. With the Braves also struggling recently, Philadelphia hopes to close the gap further with another win over the Mets. A victory would not only pull them closer in the standings, it will also give them the momentum they need for their make or break four game set with the Braves beginning Thursday.
Philadelphia will put Zach Eflin on top of the hill on Wednesday. The 24 year old right hander has a record of 10-7 with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.27 thi in a total of 22 games pitched this season. Eflin is coming off a win after three straight losses.
In his last start, Eflin pitched 6.1 innings while allowing one run in five hits and one walk as Philadelphia beat Miami 14-2 last 9/14/18. That win helped snapped a three start losing streak and it was the first game since June 27th where Eflin allowed fewer than two runs in a game.
He is 7-3 at home with an ERA of 3.58 in eleven starts. Like his opposing starter, he has struggled against his team’s current opponent, going 1-1 with an ERA of 7.98 in three starts versus the Mets this season. Eflin is 1-3 with an ERA of 6.1 in six career starts against the Mets.
Who Wins?
Despite picking up the win on Tuesday, the Phillies are 2-7 in their last nine games, 2-7 in their last nine home games and 5-13 in their last 18 games against teams with a losing record. The Mets on the other hand are 5-2 in their last seven games overall and are 5-1 in their last 6 games against right handed starters.
Philadelphia is winless in their last three Game 3 played and are 1-10 in their last 11 home games against a right handed starter. They are also 1-4 in Eflin’s last five starts. On the other hand, the Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaards’s last five starts and 4-1 in his five starts in Game 3 of a series. New York has also not lost in their last six Wednesday’s games.
Syndergaard has pitched well against the Phillies both this season and in his career while Eflin has struggled against the Mets. The pitching matchup points to New York and given that the Phillies’ offense has been reeling, the pitching edge may be what they need to pull off another win in Philadelphia. The Mets are 36-15 in their last 51 games at Philly and I think Thor delivers another strong outing against the Phillies.
We’re picking the New York Mets to beat the Philadelphia Phillies on 9/19/18.
Are There Other Bet/s Worth Making?
The run total line for this game has been set at 7.5 and as of 9/18/18, these are the odds at Betonline.ag:
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 9/19/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 7.5 -105, Under 7.5 -115
These teams have combined to score at least 10 runs in four out of their last six games. Since his brief stint in the Minors, Eflin has pitched terribly and against the Mets, he has an ERA of 7.98 in three starts this season. The over is 6-2-1 in New York’s last 9 games against their division opponents and 5-2-2 in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. The over is also 4-0 in their last four games at home and 5-1 in Eflin’s last six starts. If those are not enough, the over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Prediction: Over 7.5
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