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The New York Jets travel to Foxborough on 12/30/18 to take on the New England Patriots in an AFC battle.
The Jets dropped to 4-11 on the season after losing to the Green Bay Packers last week while the Patriots defeated the Buffalo Bills to push their record to 10-5.
Coming Up Short
The New England Patriots won their 10th consecutive AFC East title but they came up short this season as they won’t be able to win 12 games for the first time since 2009. The Patriots have found their winning ways again but they have been streaky this season. New England started 1-2 before winning eight of their next nine games. Then they lost to Miami in a last second miracle play and followed that up with a loss to the Steelers. The Pats came back last week to beat the Bills to move to 10-5 on the season.
The ageless Tom Brady has looked good for the Patriots even if some are saying he isn’t the same dominant force he was in recent years. Brady has thrown for 4,105 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 65.4% of his passes. Brady has led the Patriots to multiple Super Bowl titles and there is no question he can do so again this season. But at 3-5 on the road, the Patriots need to play at home as much as they can. Beating the Jets and hoping for help is the best they can do right now.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 12/30/18
Moneyline Odds: Jets +565, Patriots -730
Odds from sportbsbetting.ag as of 12/27/18
Future Is Bright
No question, the future looks bright for the New York Jets with Sam Darnold as their franchise quarterback. Last season, the Jets went 5-11 and were deemed as one of the worst teams in the league. This season, they have been more competitive with Darnold. However, their record is almost identical at 4-11. After almost coming up with wins over the Texans and Packers, the Jets hope to close their season on a positive note with a big win over the Patriots.
Darnold has thrown for more than 2,600 passing yards with 7 interceptions. But New York’s rookie quarterback was hounded by injuries early on. Since his return, Darnold has gotten better. He’s completed 66% of his passes for 764 yards with six touchdowns and a passer rating of 106.2. Before he sat out three weeks, his passer rating was a mere 43.3% and he threw seven interceptions. The Jets hope he gets even better against a team they have not beaten on the road in seven years.
Who Wins?
New York is 1-8 SU in their last nine games played. The Jets are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road. New England is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played. The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five home games. Head to head, the Patriots are 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings.
Although the Patriots won’t be able to win 12 games this season for the first time since 2009, they still clinched a 10th straight AFC East title. There’s no denying that this is no longer the dominant Patriots team of recent years but this one is still elite and a powerhouse at home.
The future looks good for the Jets with Sam Darnold at the helm. But right now, the Jets are terrible. Their defense is giving up 26.9 points per game , 255 passing yards per game and 126 rushing yards per game. Those are ranked 28th, 25th and 26th in the NFL this season. The spread looks too high at first glance but remember that the Jets coughed up a 15 point lead against the Patriots last Sunday. Well, that’s how their season has gone and that’s how this game is probably going to end up as well.
We’re picking the New England Patriots to beat the New York Jets on 12/30/18.
Other Bets To Make
The Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games played. New York is 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played and New England is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games at home. Head to head, the Jets are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 12/30/18
Spread Odds: Jets +13.5 (-111), Patriots -13.5 (-109)
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/27/18
The New York Jets have not won at Gillette Stadium since 2011. The Jets are 1-9 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games at Foxborough with a losing margin of 11.7 points per game. It doesn’t help that the Jets are also 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as double-digit underdogs. On the other hand, the Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games when favored by twin-digits with an average winning margin of 17.8 points per game.
Prediction: Patriots -13.5
The total has gone over in 5 out of the last 6 games played by the Jets. New York has seen the over go 4-3 in their seven road games this season. The under is 7-1 in the last eight games played by the Patriots. The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by New England. The under is also 5-0 in the last five meetings between these teams while the total has gone over in six out of the last nine meetings between these two teams when played in New England.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 12/30/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 44.5 -110, Under 44.5 -110
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/27/18
The under has hit in five of New England’s 7 road games with an average combined score of 47.7 points per game. Although that total is greater than the total set for this game, the margin is 3.2 and given how the New England offense hasn’t produced as expected, I’m leaning towards the under. We also said that the under has hit seven times in the last eight games of New England and average combined score in those games was 40.8 points per game.
Prediction: Under 44.5
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