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Two teams looking forward to the Draft Lottery will meet on Friday night as the New Orleans Pelicans take on the Phoenix Suns at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix.
Bye Bye Brow
The Pelicans are counting the days of superstar Anthony Davis in New Orleans. It can be recalled that Davis requested for a trade last February but the Pelicans didn’t send him anywhere. With the summer looming, New Orleans is expected to get better trade offers from other teams, especially the Boston Celtics, which could finally send the unhappy Brow packing from the Big Easy.
Davis was the Pelicans’ heart and soul, leading the team with 25.9 points, 12.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game but he’s been playing limited minutes since his trade demands and has missed the last four games due to injury. With Davis on the way out, Jrue Holiday has taken charge and is averaging 21.2 points, 7.7 assists and 1.6 steals for New Orleans. Julius Randle is also having a fine season with 21.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in his first season with the Pelicans. Elfrid Payton has come back from injury to average 10.3 points and 7.4 assists per game.
The Pelicans are ranked 3rd overall in team scoring at 115.2 points per game. New Orleans is also the third best passing team in the league at 27.0 assists per game and they are ranked 5th off the glass with 47.2 rebounds per outing. But the Pelicans allow the third most points among 30 NBA teams at 116.5 points per game.
Pelicans
-125
Suns
-110
Odds from 5dimes.eu as of 4/05/19
One Lottery Pick Away?
The Suns won the draft lottery last year and proceeded to picking DeAndre Ayton with the #1 overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft and so far Ayton has been impressive. Together with resident star Devin Booker, the Suns already have a formidable 1-2 punch. However, Phoenix still struggled this season and will get the chance to draft one more lottery pick this coming June to perhaps push them over the edge next season.
Booker leads the Suns with 26.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game this season. T.J. Warren has emerged as a solid second option and he is averaging 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game for Phoenix. Ayton is having a double-double season with 16.3 points and 10.3 rebounds. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre has fit nicely in Phoenix and he is putting up 16.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Josh Jackson and Tyler Johnson are scoring 11.1 points per game each this season.
The Suns have the 7th lowest scoring average among NBA teams at only 107.1 points per game scored. Phoenix is ranked 18th in passing with 23.8 assists per game and they are ranked last in rebounding at 40.3 boards hauled per contest. The Suns are allowing the fourth most opponent points per game at 116.3.
Who Wins?
The Pelicans are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played. New Orleans is 1-1 in their last two games on the road. The Suns are also 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played. Phoenix is 1-5 SU in their last six games played at home. Head to head, the Pelicans are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against the Suns.
Both these teams are out of the playoff race and are playing only for pride and to bring some positivity heading to the offseason. With no pressure on, I expect these teams to play better than they did at the start of the season. But with injuries on both sides, the team who has more key players left should have the better chance of winning the game.
Davis has missed the last four games for the Pelicans and is doubtful here. Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore are out for the rest of the season as well. On the other hand, Phoenix is without Devin Booker who has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an ankle injury. T.J. Warren is also out with an ankle injury. Likewise, Kelly Oubre is out while DeAndre Ayton is questionable for this game with an ankle problem.
This is an interesting game to pick because the usual suspects on both teams are out. But when you look at who’s left, the Pelicans probably have the best player in the game with Julius Randle who is having a 20-10 season in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 13-26 on the road but Phoenix is just 11-29 at home this season. I’m picking the New Orleans Pelicans to beat the Phoenix Suns on 4/5/19.
Other Bets To Make
New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Pelicans are 1-1 ATS in their last two games away from home. Phoenix is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at home. Head to head, the Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Pelicans
-1 (-115)
Suns
+1 (-115)
Odds from 5dimes.eu as of 4/05/19
The Pelicans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. New Orleans is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played on the road and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams. The Suns are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against their Western Conference rivals but are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Pelicans. I think New Orleans has the better remaining lineup after the injuries to both teams. Prediction: Pelicans
The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Pelicans. New Orleans has seen the total go over in 13 out of their 24 road games against Western Conference teams. The over is 4-1 in the last five games played by the Suns. The total has gone under in 24 out of the 40 home games played by Phoenix. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 games between the Pelicans and Suns.
Pelicans
O 233.5 (-115)
Suns
U 233.5 (-115)
Odds from 5dimes.eu as of 4/05/19
The over is 12-8 in the last 20 games between these two teams when playing in Phoenix. The over is 3-2 in the Pelicans’ last five home games against Western Conference teams. The total has gone over in 8 out of the last 10 April regular season games played by the Pelicans. When you have a no-bearing game with plenty of players looking to make an impression, it’s always a shootout. Both teams have bottom-5 defenses and that’s not going to help either. Prediction: Over
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