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After another exciting round of NCAA Football action, week 4 is here and the early betting lines have been drawn. At first look, there are a handful odds that caught our attention because of the value they present.
Let’s take a look at some of the best picks for this week’s college football action.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to keep their unbeaten record intact while the Wake Forest Demon Deacons hope to bounce back from their first loss of the season as these two teams meet in Week 4 of the NCAA Football season.
Winning With A Woeful Offense
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish opened their 2018 campaign with a 24-17 victory over 14th ranked Michigan and then picked up two more wins in the next two weeks. However, the Irish are just 1-2 against the spread in three games, covering as underdogs against the Wolverines but failed to beat the spread badly in their last two games as double digit favorites, winning by eight and five points while being favored by 34 and 15.5 points respectively.
While they have been winning, Notre Dame’s offense has struggled as they only rank 104th in the nation in points scored per game at 23.3. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush ranks 60th in the league in passing yards and has thrown only one touchdown with four interceptions through three games.
Notre Dame vs Wake Forest 9/22/18
Spread Odds: Notre Dame -7.5 (-115), Wake Forest +7.5 (-105)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
Losing In A Shootout
Wake Forest opened at 2-0 for the third straight season but dropped their third outing to Boston College 41-34 in a shootout last Thursday. Boston College quarterback Anthony Brown threw for 304 yards with five touchdowns while the Demon Deacons rushed for 298 yards and gained 214 yards in the air.
Quarterback Sam Hartman ranks 18th in the nation with 834 passing yards across three games but has thrown five interceptions against six touchdowns. Wake Forest ranks 50th in the NCAA at 36 points per game scored but are only 77th in points allowed 26 points per game.
Best Bet
Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Independents and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with winnings records. On the other hand, Notre Dame is 1-6 ATS against winning opponents, 0-5 in their last five games after a win. Overall, the Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
The Demon Deacons average 207 more yards per game than the Fighting Irish so this should be a more tougher assignment for Notre Dame. Yes, they have been winning but they have not shown us reasons that they can cover this spread in what is their first road game. Notre Dame’s offense isn’t going to blow away Wake Forest and while they may win, the Demon Deacons should score more than enough at home to cover.
Prediction: Wake Forest +7.5.
Alabama at Texas A&M 9/22/18 3:30 PM E.T.
The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide take their act to the Bryant-Denny Stadium as they take on the Texas A&M on Saturday.
Blowing Away The Opposition
Despite being given incredibly huge spreads in the early season, the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide have easily covered as they have been blowing away their opposition. Alabama has won its first three games by an aggregate score of 170-28 and have won their last 20 home games by an average margin of 31.75 points.
The offense has been unbelievable for Alabama as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently has an out of this world quarterback rating of 233.3 on 12.92 yards per attempt while 72% completion rate. Before Alabama played last week, there were talks that Ole Miss would be able to cover or even potentially upset them but the nation’s top team silenced their critics with a 62-7 blowout. So how do you want to bet against that?
Alabama at Texas A&M 9/22/18
Spread Odds: Alabama -27 (-108), Texas A&M +27 (-112)
Over/Under Odds: Over 61 -115, Under 61 -105
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
Not Getting Enough Respect?
Texas A&M is off to a good start but they may not be getting enough respect yet. The Aggies are 2-1 with their only setback was a two point loss to 2nd ranked Clemson. Despite that, they are still unranked but hope to change that with another strong performance against the top ranked team in the country.
Last week, the Aggies ran for 281 yards on 45 carries with four touchdowns as they blew out University of Louisiana Monroe 48-10. Texas A&M also threw the ball well, going 19-27 for 249 yards with one touchdown. Things won’t be as easy though against the Crimson Tide.
Best Bet
The Crimson tide are undefeated this season and are perfect against the spread in their last five September games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The spread has been set at 27 and is currently priced at -108 but personally, I think the betting sites overshot the runway and have booked the spread too high. You may decide to wait later in the week and if this number goes down to the low twenties, take this bet. Personally, I will go with the OVER/UNDER.
Although this is the toughest test for the Alabama secondary so far this season, the Crimson Tide have averaged 56.7 points per game this season. The totals have also gone over in four of the last five games played by Texas A&M. Both teams have shown that they can put up the points and we think 61 is an easy total to beat here.
Prediction: Over 61.
Wisconsin vs Iowa 9/22/18 8:30 PM E.T.
The 18th ranked Wisconsin Badgers play the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.
Missed Field Goal
The Badgers began their 2018 season with big wins over Western Kentucky and New Mexico but were upset as big favorites against the BYU Cougars 21-24 last week. Wisconsin ran the ball for 204 yards with three touchdowns but a missed field goal by Rafael Gaglione late in the game cost them big time.
Alex Hornibrock will start behind center for the Badgers. Hornibrock has completed just 43 out of 68 passes for 595 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 145.5. The junior struggled against BYU, completing just 18 out of 29 passes for 190 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. While he is expected to have a bounce back game, he hasn’t been consistent in the first three weeks of the season.
Wisconsin vs Iowa 9/22/18
Spread Odds: Wisconsin -3.5 (-105), Iowa +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under Odds: Over 43 -110, Under 43 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 9/17/18
Still Undefeated
In a week where many Big 10 teams fell in non-conference play last week, the Iowa Hawkeyes kept their clean slate with a 38-14 trashing of FCS foe Northern Iowa last Saturday. With that win, the Hawkeyes are on the cusp of a Top 25 ranking.
Nate Stanley completed 23 out of 28 passes for 302 yards with two touchdowns. He also ran for 72 yards to add to the team high 82 yards rushed by Toren Young. Iowa totalled 545 yards on offense but it’s their defense that’s caught our eye, allowing just 8.0 points per game this season, 2nd best in college football. Their run defense is also allowing just 42 yards per game, also #2 in the nation.
Best Bet
Iowa is 5-0 ATS in their last five games, 4-1 ATS in their last five September games and 6-1-1 in their last 8 games at home. Wisconsin on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Badgers have also won five of their last eight head to head meetings including the last two.
No question that the Badgers are the slight favorites in the match but Iowa has one of the best defenses in the nation and they have what it takes to limit their visitors. Specifically, Iowa’s run defense has been solid and Alex Hornibrook’s passing skills aren’t very convincing. Last season, Iowa forced him to throw three interceptions. If the Hawkeyes can keep Taylor away from the endzone, they may be able to pull off an upset. But more certainly, they can keep this game close and cover the spread.
Prediction: Iowa +3.5.
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