The best team in the nation looks to extend its winning streak to seven on the season as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Missouri Tigers at the Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, 10/13/18.

Alabama has opened the season a perfect 6-0 and have won eight in a row dating back to last season. The Crimson Tide toppled Arkansas 65-31 this past week while the Tigers are coming off back to back losses to Georgia and South Carolina. As Alabama hopes to fortify their hold of the top spot in the rankings, the Tigers are in search of their first win in conference play.

Two Game Skid

After opening the season 3-0, the Missouri Tigers find themselves in the middle of a two game skid. The loss to #2 Georgia wasn’t surprising, however, Missouri was expected to beat South Carolina the last time out, only to fall 35-37 at the end of regulation play.

Senior Drew Lock has done a very good job in leading the Missouri offense. Lock has thrown for 1,487 yards with 11 scores and four interceptions. In his last two games though, Lock has struggled with zero touchdowns and three interceptions while completing just 47% of his passes. Lock needs to be locked in if the Tigers want a chance at beating the Crimson Tide.

Although Lock has struggled in the last two games, the Missouri offense has been good this season at 39 points per game this season, 25th best in FBS. On the other end though it has been another story as their defense ranks only 84th in points allowed at 28.8 points per game and their pass defense allows 284.8 yards per game, 117th in the country. This could be a problem against Alabama’s Heisman candidate quarterback.

What’re the Odds?

Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Moneyline Odds: Not yet available as of writing

Dominating Their Competition

The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide have been dominating their competition this season. The Crimson Tide are averaging 56 points per game this season or a total of 336 points on the year, the most in college football. Alabama has scored at least 50 points in five out of their six games and have beaten their opponents by an average of 40 points per game.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been sensational for the Crimson Tide this season. The Heisman Trophy favorite has thrown for a total of 1,495 yards this season with 18 touchdowns and no interceptions. Tagovailoa’s 98.5 quarterback rating is the highest through six games since the statistic was recorded. What’s even more impressive is that the sophomore play caller has yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter of their games.

Alabama’s defense allows 16 points per game, 11th best in the NCAA but last week against Arkansas, they yielded 31 points. Head Coach Nick Saban wasn’t too happy with their defensive effort but given that their defense was very good before last week, expect the defensive line to pick it up on Saturday.

Who Wins?

Missouri is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games but 4-12 SU in their 16 games on the road. Alabama is 5-0 SU in their last five games and 5-0 SU in their last five games at home. The Crimson Tide won their last two meetings

Betting Prediction

Missouri is ranked 117th in the nation against the pass, giving up nearly 300 passing yards per contest. They also rank 84th in the NCAA with 28.8 points per game allowed. They are playing the top team in the nation in Alabama at the Crimson Tide’s home field. Tagovailoa should pick apart the Tigers’ secondary.

We’re picking Alabama to beat Missouri on 10/13/18.

Place Your Bet Here

 

Other Bets To Make

Missouri is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall but only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. Meanwhile Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

What’re the Odds?

Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Spread Odds: Missouri +28 (-113), Alabama -28 (-107)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18

Betting Prediction

Alabama should be the easy pick here as they have the #1 offense and the #11 defense in the country. But if you take a look at their trends they have struggled against the odds this season. Alabama failed to cover against Louisiana and Arkansas but blasted Ole’ Miss 62-7 as 22.5 point favorites Their average winning margin this season is 40 points with 22 as their lowest winning margin.

Prediction: Alabama -28

Place Your Bet Here

 

The over is 6-2 in Missouri’s last 8 games on the road and 6-1 in the last seven games overall for Alabama with the total averaging 68.71. The over is also 7-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 conference games with an average total score of 71.89

What’re the Odds?

Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 75 +105, Under 75 -125
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18

Betting Prediction

Alabama has scored 336 total points this season, more than any other team in college football. On a good night, the Crimson Tide can easily cover the over by themselves. But even if not, they average 56 points per game and their defense isn’t always razor sharp. Last week, Arkansas scored 31 points on the Alabama defense and considering that Missouri has more to offer on offense than the Razorback, the 75 total can easily be achieved.

Prediction: Over 75

Place Your Bet Here

The best value bet here is the +105 for the Over 75 and personally, that would be my bet too. Alabama is a sure winner in this game but with the moneyline (not yet available as of writing) expected to be too pricey, we are forced to look at the Spread and Over/Under Odds for value. But at +28, I’m having some reservations because Alabama has been unpredictable against the spread (check the trends) although yes, they’ve never won by a margin lower than 22 points this season. I’m going with the over 75 for this game.

Related Articles
0 Comments
    Leave Your Comment

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *