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The Milwaukee Bucks invade Hoosier State on Wednesday night in a clash with their Central Division rivals Indiana Pacers at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indiana.
The Real Deal
When the Bucks raced to an early lead in the Eastern Conference, people thought that they would fade as the season progressed. Well, the Bucks haven’t and they are proving to be the real deal. Fourteen games into the second half of their season, the Bucks are 42-14 and still on top of the East.
Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in almost all major statistical categories. The Greek Freak is putting up 27.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Khris Middleton is scoring 17.1 points per game as the Bucks’ #2 option while guards Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon have been solid in the backcourt at 16.0 and 15.7 points per game, respectively. Brook Lopez leads the Bucks with 1.5 blocks while also scoring 12.2 points per game.
Milwaukee is the second highest scoring team in the league behind the Warriors at 117.1 points per game. They rank 7th in the passing department at 26.3 assists per game and are leading the league in rebounding at 48.8 boards per contest. The Bucks also have the 7th best scoring defense in the league at 107.3 points per game allowed.
Bucks
-160
Pacers
+240
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/13/19
Defying The Odds
When the Pacers lost Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury, many thought that their season was over. The Pacers struggled at first but they have found the way to win and defy the odds. Indiana is on a six game winning streak and is just 4.5 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks in the race for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. A win over the Bucks on Wednesday would even pull them closer in the team standings.
Bojan Bogdanovic is Indiana’s main offensive weapon in the absence of Oladipo. Bogdanovic is averaging 16.7 points to lead the Pacers. Domantas Sabonis is scoring 14.7 points and grabbing a team-best 9.2 rebounds per outing. Myles Turner is picking up his game with 13.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while Darren Collison leads Indiana with 5.9 assists aside from scoring 10.5 points per game.
Indiana is the league’s top defensive team at 102.8 opponent points per game allowed this season. They are ranked 22nd in team scoring at 108.3 points per game and are 24th off the glass with 43.4 rebounds per game. The Pacers rank 8th in passing at 26.2 assists per game.
Who Wins?
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games played and 5-0 SU in their last five games played on the road. The Pacers are 5-0 SU in their last five games played and 4-1 in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Pacers are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Bucks. Indiana is also 4-1 SU in their last five home games against the Bucks.
The Pacers lost four in a row after Oladipo’s season-ending injury but have rattled off six straight wins after that losing streak and now will aim to tie their longest winning streak of the season at seven against the Bucks. The Pacers added more firepower when they signed free agent Wesley Matthews who was waived by the Knicks after the Porzingis trade. Matthews will try to help fill the scoring void left by ‘Dipo.
The Bucks continue to win games and continue to dominate the opposition with the Greek Freak leading the way. Antetokounmpo is having a super human season and it doesn’t appear that he is slowing down soon. Mike Budenholzer has also gotten the best out of a balanced scoring team which can knock down the three and play good defense as well. Milwaukee is certainly proving to be the real deal in the East right now.
The Bucks have won 12 out of their last 14 games while the Pacers have won six in a row. When you take a look at Indiana’s six game winning streak though, they didn’t really face elite teams during that stretch so while winning without Oladipo is impressive, it may not put them in the same level as the Bucks. Milwaukee is 19-9 SU on the road this season and the Pacers are 22-7 SU at home. Something has to give here and I don’t think it will be the Bucks.
I’m picking the Milwaukee Bucks to beat the Indiana Pacers on 2/13/19.
Other Bets To Make
The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played and Indiana is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Head to head, the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus the Bucks and 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against Milwaukee.
Bucks
-3.5 (-110)
Pacers
+3.5 (-110)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/13/19
Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning record, 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 road games and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The 4-0 ATS in their last four games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall but 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Both teams are rolling right now but the Pacers have struggled with the elite teams. I’m eating the small chalk and going with the road team here.
Prediction: Bucks -3.5
The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 18 games played by the Bucks. The under is 13-6 in Milwaukee’s last 19 road games. The total has gone under in seven out of the last eight games played by the Pacers and the under is 4-1 in their last five games against the Bucks.
Bucks
O 218.5 -110
Pacers
U 218.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/13/19
The total has gone under in five out of the Bucks’ last six games against teams with winning percentage of .600 and higher. The over is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 games against teams with a home winning record of .600 and higher. The Pacers meanwhile have seen the total go under in seven out of their last eight games overall. The under is also 6-0 in Indiana’s last six games when playing on one day rest and 8-0 in their last eight games against Eastern Conference teams. The under is likewise 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Milwaukee is an excellent offensive team but can play defense when they have to. I think they play to Indiana’s style here.
Prediction: Under 218.5
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