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The Denver Nuggets return home from a four-game road trip to take on the Miami Heat on Monday night at the Pepsi Center in Denver.
Fighting For A Playoff Spot
The Miami Heat are right in the thick of the war, fighting for a playoff spot. Before their Sunday game against the defending champions Golden State Warriors, the Heat stood at 8th place in the East but just half a game ahead of 9th place Detroit but are also just two games behind 6th seeded Brooklyn.
The Heat are ranked 3rd in scoring defense at only 105.5 points per game allowed. Miami is 26th in scoring at 105.0 points per game. They are also ranked 19th in assists with 23.6 dimes per contest. The Heat are likewise ranked 8th in rebounding at 46.6 boards hauled down per outing.
Heat
+425
Nuggets
-550
Odds from Bet365 as of 2/11/19
Returning Home
The Denver Nuggets are returning home to their home court after a disastrous four-game road trip that saw them go 1-3 and lose three in a row heading to this contest. The Nuggets had not lost three in a row since a four-game losing skid from November 8-14, 2018. They hope to turn the tide and get back on the winning side on Monday night.
Denver is 15th in scoring at 112.0 points per game while they are 2nd in assists at 27.6 dimes per contest. The Nuggets ranks 9th in rebounding at 46.2 boards grabbed per contest. They also have the 6th best scoring defense in the league at only 107.3 points per game allowed.
Who Wins?
The Heat are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games. Miami is 4-2 SU in their last six road games played. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and are 3-0 SU in their last three home games played. Head to head, the Nuggets are 3-1 SU in their last four meetings against the Heat.
The Nuggets have struggled as of late with injuries. Paul Millsap and Gary Harris are still out for Denver but they’ve gotten Jamal Murray back and that should give the offense plenty of boost heading to this game. Nikola Jokic has been fantastic this season and should produce another terrific game here.
The Nuggets have lost three in a row heading to this game but don’t be deceived by their recent form. Denver hasn’t lost three in a row since November 14th when they lost four in a row, The Nuggets have been solid at home all season long and should bounce back with a huge win over the Heat here.
I’m picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Miami Heat on 2/11/19.
Other Bets To Make
Miami is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games played. The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games. Denver is also 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games played and 3-0 ATS in their three home game during that period. Head to head, the Heat are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings versus the Nuggets.
Heat
+10 (-110)
Nuggets
-10 (-110)
Odds from Bet365 as of 2/11/19
The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage of at least .600, 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Northwest Division and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Southeast Division. Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning road record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. Denver is glad to be back home and they are excellent at home.
Prediction: Nuggets
The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Heat. Miami has seen the total go under in 4 out of their last six road games. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 3-0 in the Nuggets’ last 3 home games played. Head to head, the under is 2-1 in the last three games between these two teams.
Heat
O 212.5 1.90
Nuggets
U 212.5 1.90
Odds from Bet365 as of 2/11/19
The first set of trends point to the under and the fact that these are two Top 10 defenses would make you pick the under. But before you do, listen to these: The total has gone over in 13 out of the last 16 games of the Heat when playing on the second of back to back games. The over is 7-0 in the Nuggets’ last seven home games and 5-1 in their last six games against the East. Miami isn’t a prolific scoring team but the Nuggets are if they want to. Knowing Denver is on a three game losing skid and are playing this at home, I think they go berserk and try to pound the Heat as much as possible.
Prediction: Over
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