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The Miami Marlins travel to San Diego to open a three-game set against the Padres at Petco Park on Monday night.
Miami was swept by the Colorado Rockies during the weekend and their playoff hopes may have all but vanished. Meanwhile, the Padres are still keeping their World Series hopes alive. San Diego currently has a 2.5 games cushion for the second and final wild card spot in the National League.
This is the fifth meeting between these two teams this season. The Padres won the first two but the Marlins have taken the most recent two games between these two teams.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins kept themselves in the race for the NL East during the first half of the season. But they have struggled since the All-Star break and have just been swept by the Colorado Rockies who defeated them 13-8 on Sunday. With their struggles, Miami is 12 games off the division lead and is also 16.5 games back of the wild card race so their playoff chances are slim to none.
First baseman Jesus Aguilar leads Miami with 96 hits this season including 19 home runs. Shortstop Miguel Rojas has added 89 hits while second baseman Jazz Chisolm Jr. has produced 74 hits. Miami dealt outfielders, Adam Duvall and Starling Marte. Their offense ranks 21st in the league with a batting average of .235.
Zach Thompson is in line to start for the Marlins. The 27-year old right-hander will be making his 10th start of the season on Monday. Thompson has an ERA of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.10 in a total of 42.2 innings pitched this season Thompson gave up three runs against the Mets in his last start. He has failed to complete at least five innings in four out of his nine starts this year.
San Diego Padres
The Padres head home after taking two of three games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona upset San Diego in the series opener but the Padres took the last two meetings while allowing a combined two runs in both games. They are currently 7.5 games out in the tough NL West but have a 2.5 games lead in the race for the second wild card spot.
Second baseman Jake Cronenworth has 114 hits to lead the team while hitting at .275, Manny Machado has 109 hits while first baseman Eric Hosmer has 98 hits. Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is out with a shoulder injury and is on the 10-day IL. The Padres’ offense ranks 9th in the majors with a team batting average of 2.47.
Joe Musgrove will open on top of the mound for the Padres on Monday. Musgrove has a 7-7 record in 21 starts and has an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 0.97 with 139 strikeouts. He allowed one run across six innings in his last start. He has three quality starts in his last three assignments and has conceded only three runs in his last 19 innings pitched.
Who Wins?
Miami is 3-7 in their last 10 games played. The Marlins are also 3-7 in their last 10 games as betting underdogs. Miami is 2-5 in their last seven games against the National League West, 2-5 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter, 10-26 in their last 36 games as road underdogs, and 3-7 in their last 10 games overall as betting underdogs.
San Diego is 4-2 in their last six games played. The Padres are 12-6 in their last 18 Monday games, 15-5 in their last 20 games played on August, 4-1 in their last five Game 1 of a series, 26-12 in their last 38 home games when the total is set between 7.0-8.5, and 29-13 in their last 42 home games, and 57-26 in their last 83 games as home favorites.
Please Note
The Marlins have shown all season long that they can pull off upsets and provide great betting value. With San Diego’s superstar shortstop out, you might be tempted to go with Miami in this game.
However, Miami will be traveling to the West Coast and will be facing one of the best teams in the league. Despite being without Tatis, the Padres have a potent lineup with Mann Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Will Myers leading the offense.
I expect the Padres to make plenty of contact against Zach Thompson and drive in more than enough runs to build a comfortable lead. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove should pitch several scoreless innings before turning the ball over to one of the best bullpens in the league.
I’m picking the Padres to win this one and if you want a bigger yield, go with San Diego covering the spread. They should be good enough to win this by at least two runs.
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Over/Under Betting
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Marlins. Miami has seen the total go over in five out of their last six games played on grass. The over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games against a right-handed starter, 15-6-3 in their last 24 Monday games, 5-2 in their last seven Game 1 of a series, and 4-0 in their last four road games.
The total has gone over in nine out of the last 12 games played by the Padres. The over is also 6-1 in their last seven games played on grass, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 12-4 in their last 16 games when the total is set between 7-8.5, 24-9 in their last 33 games as home betting favorites, and 4-1 in their last five home games.
Head to head, the over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego but the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.
Over
7.5 (-110)
Under
7.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 08/08/2021
The starting pitchers on both sides are the best pitchers on the teams so there’s a chance that this could be a pitching affair.
Zach Thompson is having a promising season and although I think he will be hit, he won’t be hit that hard. With Tatis out, I don’t expect the Padres to score too many runs here.
With Musgrove on the mound, there is a possibility that San Diego shuts down Miami but even if that doesn’t happen, I expect Musgrove to pitch several scoreless innings before letting his bullpen finish the job.
The trends point to over and the total set isn’t that high so I won’t blame you if you go with the over. However, I don’t expect Musgrove to give up more than two runs and the Padres have a very good bullpen so I will go with the under.
Prediction: Under 7.5
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