Mariners vs Padres Odds and Pick (07/04)

The Seattle Mariners head to San Diego to open a mid-week series at Petco Park.

Seattle is 39-42 on the season and they are in 2nd in the AL West team standings behind the Houston Astros. The Mariners have come on strong as of late at 10-3 in their last 13 games played but they are still 13.5 games back in the division standings. Seattle has won five out of its last six games including their last two to beat the A’s 3 games to 1 in their previous series.

Meanwhile, the Padres are 47-34 on the season and they are second in the NL West team standings, just 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Diego is just 3-7 in their last 10 games played as they lost their recent series to the Dodgers 3 games to 1. San Diego also lost to the Phillies 3-1 two series ago and split with the Diamondbacks 1-1 after that.

This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. In their most recent series in May 2021, the Padres swept the Mariners 3-0. They also split their six meetings in 2020.

Seattle Mariners

A slow start has made it difficult for the Mariners to catch up with the Houston Astros in the divisional standings. However, their recent resurgence has put them closer to a wild card spot. Currently, the Mariners are just five games off the second wild-card spot in the American League. However, Seattle has to continue its winning ways to make that happen.

Injuries have hurt and continue to hurt the Mariners this season. Ty France is out with an elbow injury and Seattle is going to miss his .316 batting average and 45 RBIs production. Seattle is also without Kyle Lewis, Mitch Hangier, and Evan White due to various injuries while Jesse Winker is still serving his suspension.

Opening on top of the mound for the Mariners will be Chris Flexen. The 28-year-old right-hander has started 15 games this season and has posted a record of 4-8 with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.43. In a total of 83.1 innings pitched this season, Flexen has allowed 40 earned runs on 90 hits with 58 strikeouts and 29 RBIs.

Flexen has won his last two starts and allowed only three earned runs on seven hits the last time out. Seattle is 4-3 in his last seven starts including wins in the most recent two outings.

San Diego Padres

The Padres could use a series win against the Mariners to gain ground on the Los Angeles Dodgers who have taken a 3.5-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. San Diego has won just thrice in its last 10 games played, losing 3-1 to the Dodgers in their last series. The Padres rallied to beat the Dodgers 4-2 in their last game to avoid getting swept.

Much like the Mariners, the Padres have seen injuries hurt their campaign. Fernando Tatis Jr. has not played in a single game this season due to a wrist injury. Will Myers, who is dealing with a knee problem, is also out for San Diego. Their pitching staff also is without three starters as is their bullpen which does not have three of its relievers.

Sean Manea will get the opportunity to start Game 1 for the Padres. The 30-year-old left-hander is 3-3 with an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.14 in a total of 14 starts this season. Manea has allowed 37 earned runs on 66 hits with 89 strikeouts and 31 walks in a total of 85.0 innings pitched this season.

Manea did not factor in the decision during his last start where he allowed only three runs on three hits in six innings pitched during a 7-6 loss to the Diamondbacks. The Padres are 5-2 in Manea’s last five starts.

Mariners vs Padres Betting Prediction

The Mariners are 0-4 in their last four games played against the Padres. Seattle is also 2-8 in their last 10 games played in San Diego.

The Mariners are:

4-1 in their last 5 games played overall.
6-1 in their last 7 road games.
4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
8-2 in their last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
16-35 in their last 51 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
7-20 in their last 27 interleague games against a left-handed starter.
2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
5-15 in their last 20 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
3-10 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
3-10 in their last 13 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
1-4 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter.
2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games against a left-handed starter.

The Padres are:

1-6 in their last 7 games played overall.
1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
4-1 in their last 5 interleague home games against a team with a losing record.
4-1 in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record.
6-2 in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing record.
8-3 in their last 11 interleague games against a team with a losing record.
7-3 in their last 10 interleague home games.
35-16 in their last 51 versus the American League West.
15-7 in their last 22 interleague games.
Padres are 7-19 in their last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 Game1s of a series.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Mariners

+158

Padres

-172

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/04/2022

Flexen is just 4-8 this season with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.43. His ERA is even worse when pitching on the road at 4.71 in 42.0 innings this season. However, he is coming off back-to-back wins. Last June 24th, he allowed 3 earned runs on five hits in 5.0 innings pitched during a 4-3 win over the Angels. Then last Wednesday, Flexen went six innings and gave up only three earned runs on seven hits as the Mariners beat the Orioles 9-3.

Meanwhile, Manea pitched for 6 innings and gave up three earned runs on three hits during a 7-6 loss to the Diamondbacks. He did not factor in the decision for the third straight game. Manea is 2-2 in six games pitched at home with an ERA of 3.96. In five starts during June, he has posted an ERA of 3.72 so he’s throwing better now than he did at the start of the campaign.

Experience-wise, Manea should have the edge in the starter matchup. Meanwhile, Flexen has pitched better in his last two starts. I don’t see any team picking up a huge advantage over the other when it comes to pitching. However, there two teams are on the opposite poles when it comes to scoring. The Padres have scored the 11th most runs by any team in the majors with 361. Seattle is just 24th in that department with 317 runs scored. I don’t think the Mariners’ offense can match up with the Padres lineup as far as putting runs on the scoreboard.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Mariners vs Padres Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone over in each of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 6-0 in the last six meetings in San Diego.

Seattle Mariners over/under trends:

Over is 6-0 in the Mariners’ last 6 games against the National League West division.
Over is 13-3-1 in the Mariners’ last 17 interleague road games against. a team with a winning record.
Over is 12-3 in the Mariners’ last 15 interleague games.
Over is 8-2-1 in the Mariners’ last 11 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
Over is 20-6-1 in the Mariners’ last 27 interleague road games.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 5-2 in the Mariners’ last 7 interleague games versus a left-handed starter.
Under is 14-6-1 in the Mariners’ last 21 games played overall.
Under is 3-0-1 in the Mariners’ last 4 road games.
Under is 14-6-1 in the Mariners’ last 21 games played on grass.
Under is 4-0 in the Mariners’ last 4 versus a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

Over is 3-0-1 in the Padres’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 15-4 in the Padres’ last 19 games against the American League.
Over is 13-3-1 in the Padres’ last 17 vs. American League West.
Over is 20-7 in the Padres’ last 27 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 46-20-4 in the Padres’ last 70 interleague home games.
Over is 34-15-2 in the Padres’ last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 35-16-3 in the Padres’ last 54 interleague games.
Under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-1-1 in the Padres’ last 8 Monday games.

What are the Total Odds?

Over

8 (-110)

Under

8 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/04/2022

Seattle has seen the total go over in each of its last six games against NL West teams and 4-0 in their last four head-to-head meetings versus San Diego. Meanwhile, the over is 3-0-1 in Manea’s last four series openers started. The over is also 5-0 in his last six starts when playing on five or more days of rest.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 10.5 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 12.67 runs per game in their most recent three games played. With the wind expected to be a factor on Monday night, the ball could be flying out of the park in this game. San Diego has struggled with the long ball this season but with the Mariners ranked 4th in home runs allowed plus the wind blowing the ball farther, the Padres’ have the hitters that can make Seattle pay.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres 07/04/2022 MLB Odds and Prediction

Seattle Mariners

San Diego Padres

Mariners vs Padres Betting Prediction

Mariners vs Padres Over/Under Predictions

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