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The Golden State Warriors look to close out their first-round series as they host the Clippers for Game 5 of their first-round playoff series.
Overachieving Clippers
Without a doubt, the LA Clippers have overachieved this season. Despite trading Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Jordan in the last two years, they kept themselves in playoff contention and then eventually made the postseason as the 8th seed in the West. The Clippers even traded leading scorer Tobias Harris in mid-season but still found success with sixth man supreme Lou Williams leading way.
Williams was shut down to just 12 points in Game 4 while Montrezl Harrell was limited to just 10 points. Rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a career-high 25 points while Danilo Gallinari had 16 points but shot just 5-20 from the floor. Meanwhile, Patrick Beverley had a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.
Looking To Close Out
After dropping Game 2 of this series, the Warriors have stormed back and won two straight games to take a commanding 3-1 lead over the LA Clippers. The Dubs won Game 4 113-105 behind Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson as Steph Curry struggled and missed his first six shots and finishing with just 12 points in the game.
Durant scored 33 points in Game 4 while Klay Thompson popped 32 markers after scoring just a quiet 12 points in Game 3. Andrew Bogut had 8 points and 10 rebounds for the Dubs who outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 off the glass while also making 17 out of 19 foul shots. The Clippers took a five-point lead in the third after trailing by 11 in the first half. But Curry finished the quarter scoring seven of their final 10 points to give the Dubs an 87-84 lead heading to the 4th,
Who Wins?
The Clippers are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. L.A is 1-2 SU in their last three road games played. The Warriors are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Warriors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Clippers. The Dubs are also 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games against the LA Clippers.
You have to give credit to the Clippers for making the playoffs despite not having a true superstar in their lineup. But they’re up against perhaps the greatest offensive team in the history of the NBA and they have just come up short because they don’t have the firepower to compete.
The Warriors are looking to end the series here so they can have time to rest and prepare for the red hot James Harden and his streaking Rockets. Golden State isn’t banged up here but they need every edge they can against the reigning MVP. Golden State loves to end things in front of their home crowd and that’s what they’re going to do here.
I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the LA Clippers in Game 5 of their first-round series.
Other Bets To Make
Los Angeles is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played and the Clippers are 1-2 ATS in their last three games on the road. Golden State is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Dubs are also 3-2 ATS in their last five games played at the Oracle Arena. Head to head, the Clippers are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Warriors.
Clippers
+14 (-105)
Warriors
-14 (-115)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/24/19
The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Western Division teams, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Pacific Division teams, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference quarterfinals games, 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on two-days rest but more importantly, they 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as double-digit underdogs. Golden State is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played in April, 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on two-days rest and 28-10 ATS in their last 38 conference quarterfinals games. However, the Dubs have failed to cover 10 out of their last 15 games as double-digit underdogs. The Warriors are going to win this game for sure but there’s just a boatload of points given to the Clippers here. The champs haven’t covered well when favored by double digits. Give me the plus points here.
Prediction: Clippers +14
The over is 6-4 in the Clippers’ last 10 games played. The Clippers have seen the total go under in two out of their last three games played. The Warriors have gone under in six out of their last 10 games played. The total has gone under in three out of Golden State’s last five games played at home. Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of their last 10 meetings.
Clippers
O 235 -105
Warriors
U 235 -115
Odds from betonline.ag as of 4/14/19
The over is 4-2 in the Clippers’ last six games played. The total has gone under in 14 out of the last 19 games played by the Warriors against Western Conference teams, The under is also 5-2 in the Dubs’ last seven games against their Pacific Division rivals. The first four games in this series have been split 2-2 between the over and under. The Dubs are averaging 124.25 points per game which means the Clippers will have to score 111 points to get the total to over. Sadly, LA has topped that just once in this series while averaging 104.33 points per game in the other three games. I think the total is too high.
Prediction: Under 235
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