The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots battle for a place in the AFC Championship game as they collide on January 13, 2019 at the Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

This will be a classic battle between a very good road team and an excellent home team. The Chargers won eight out their last nine road games but the Patriots are unbeaten at home this season winning six of eight games by double digits.

Defense Key To Dethroning Patriots

The Los Angeles Chargers’ pass rush defense could be the key to dethroning the Patriots who are eyeing an 8th straight appearance in the AFC title game. That defense sacked Lamar Jackson a total of seven times during their wild card game and held Baltimore to  just 11 first downs in the game. With Tom Brady as one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who is strictly a pocket passer, disrupting him will be the key to rattling the offense and closing in on Brady’s receivers. If they are able to do that, the Chargers have a good shot at winning this game.

Philip Rivers has passed for 4,540 yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 68.3% of his passes. Rivers has thrown at least two touchdowns in 14 of his last 18 games started. Melvin Gordon has 885 rushing yards with 10 rushing touchdowns while Keenan Allen has caught 97 passes for a total of 1,196 yards and six touchdowns. Rivers and his offense certainly has what it takes to exploit a New England team that ranked only 22nd in passing yards per game allowed and gave up 29 passing touchdowns this season.


What’re the Odds?

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots 1/13/19
Moneyline Odds: Chargers +171, Patriots -196
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19


Patriots Are Unbeaten At Home

Making the case for the New England Patriots is rather easy. When you look at history, they have not lost a playoff game at Gillette Stadium since 2013. Over that period, the Patriots and 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS. Their average winning margin at home this season? 16.2 points per game. The Patriots also showed balance this season, finishing in the Top 10 in both points scored and points allowed.

Tom Brady is completing 65.3% of his passes and he threw for 4,355 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions during the regular season. Julian Edelman and James White have combined for over 1600 receiving yards with 13 total touchdowns. Rookie running back Sony Michel ran for 931 yards and six touchdowns on the season. With the Patriots taking a bye last week, they aren’t just well rested but the are also well-prepared for this.

Who Wins?

The Los Angeles Chargers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games played and 8-0 SU in their last eight non-home games. The LA Chargers are also 5-0 SU in their last five road games played. On the other hand, the New England Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season and 12-2 SU in their last 14 divisional games played.

The Patriots playoff records are tough to deny as well. They are 8-1 SU in their last nine playoff games played and are 19-3 SU in the playoffs since the year 2000. New England is also 19-9 in playoff games played during the day. Given their track record, it’s not a surprise why the Patriots are favored in this contest. But the Chargers have thrived as underdogs, winning outright their last five games as dogs and covering six out of their last eight games as underdogs of at least three points.


Betting Prediction

When you take a look at the roster of both teams, you’ll agree that the Chargers have the most balanced team in the conference and maybe the most balanced team in the league. On the other hand, you’ll admit that this is one of the worst (if not the worst) in the Patriots recent memory. Tom Brady isn’t as dominating as he used to be and maybe, it’s time for the changing of the guard. New England has been spotless at home this season but if there’s a team who can beat them in Foxboro right now. Among the remaining three AFC teams left in this postseason, it’s the Chargers who have the best shot.

That said, we’re picking the Los Angeles Chargers to beat the New England Patriots on 1/13/19.

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Other Bets To Make

The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games played. As for Philip Rivers, he is just 3-3 in six playoff games played but he keeps games close and is 5-1 ATS in those six postseason games. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games, 38-16-2 in their last 56 home games overall and 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall.

What’re the Odds?

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots 1/13/19
Spread Odds: Chargers + 4 (-107), Patriots -4 (-113)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19


Betting Prediction

The Patriots are 12-9-1 ATS in 22 home playoff games played since 2000 and 6-3 ATS in their last nine home playoff games played. New England is also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites. But the Chargers have covered six out of their last eight games as underdogs of at least three points and the team is 5-1 ATS in six playoff games with Philip Rivers as starter. Give me the plus points and underdogs here.

Prediction: Chargers +4

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The under is 4-2 in the Chargers’ last six road games and the under is also 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams. The total has also gone under in 4 out of the last 5 home games played by the Patriots.

What’re the Odds?

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots 1/13/19
Over/Under Odds: Over 47 -115, Under 47 -105
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19


Betting Prediction

The under has hit in 8 of the last 9 games played by the Patriots with an average score of 40.9 points. The under is also 4-1 in the Chargers’ last five games overall with an average score of 41.6. These two teams ranked in the Top 10 in points allowed.

Prediction: Under 47

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