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The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Baltimore Ravens at the M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday for the AFC wild card game. This will be a rematch of a Week 16 showdown which saw the Raven beat the Chargers 22-10.
Best Record Among Wild Card Teams
The LA Chargers enter this game having the best record among this season’s wild card teams. The Chargers finished the regular season with a record of 12-4 and tied for the best record in the AFC. But by virtue of the Kansas City Chiefs owning the tie-breaker between these teams, the Chargers had to settle for the fifth seed.
Philip Rivers has thrown for a total of 4,380 passing yards with 32 touchdowns at 12 interceptions while completing 68.3% of his passes. Melvin Gordon leads the rushing attack with 885 yards on the ground with 10 rushing touchdowns scored. Keenan Allen leads the air attack with 1,196 receiving yards and six touchdown passes caught.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens 1/6/19
Moneyline Odds: Chargers +119, Ravens -139
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/3/19
Ravens Riding Rookie’s Success
The Baltimore Ravens turned their season around when they put rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson in their starting unit. When starter Joe Flacco was lost to injury, head coach John Harbaugh decided to roll with the rookie rather than veteran Robert Griffin III. That move paid dividends as Jackson has led the Ravens to a 6-1 SU record.
Jackson has thrown for 1,201 passings yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Gus Edwards leads the Baltimore ground game with 718 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, John Brown has caught a total of 715 receiving yards with five touchdown passes caught.
Who Wins?
The LA Chargers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played and are 5-0 SU in their last five games played on the road. The Ravens are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played and 4-1 SU in their last five home games played. Head to head, the Ravens are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings.
Baltimore is built for the postseason because they run the ball well and play very good defense. However, they have a limited passing game and you’ve got to wonder how they are going to get back in the game if they fall behind early. The Ravens beat the Chargers a couple of weeks ago but the LA offense played its worst game of the season. You bet they are ready here. And they play better on the road.
The Chargers have covered seven out of 10 games where they were underdogs, winning the last four outright. No matter how I look at it, the Chargers have the better team overall and have better balance. I’ll roll with the better team here and take the plus money.
We’re picking the LA Chargers to beat the Baltimore Ravens on 1/6/19.
Other Bets To Make
The LA Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games played. Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played and the Ravens are 5-3 ATS at home this season. Head to head, the Ravens are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens 1/6/19
Spread Odds: Chargers +3 (-115), Ravens -3 (-105)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/3/19
Both these teams have fared well against the spread during the playoffs as the Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games and 4-1 ATS in their last five road playoff games played. The Ravens meanwhile are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven playoff games played. Head to head though, the underdog is 6-1 in their last seven meetings and
The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. The Ravens beat the Chargers the last time out but that game was played in Los Angeles. This one’s at Baltimore and the Chargers are the NFL’s road warriors this season with a 7-1 SU and ATS record away from home. LA is also 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as road underdogs.
Prediction: Chargers +3
The total has gone under in 7 out of the last 10 games played by the Chargers. The under is 9-7 in Baltimore’s 16 games played this season. Head to head, the over is 4-2 in the last six meetings overall.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens 1/6/19
Over/Under Odds: Over 41 -110, Under 41 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/3/19
The trends point to under but remember that these teams combined to score 32 points in Week 16 in a game where the Chargers scored a season-low 10 points. LA’s offense is much better than that and should score enough points to cover the total. The average combined score of the Chargers’ games this season is 47.4 points per game and the average combined score of the Ravens’ games this season is 42.2. I’m going with the over.
Prediction: over 41
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