The Serie A has already seen six weeks of epic games, but this week is poised to be the best yet. The two top teams in the league, Juventus and Napoli, will duke it out – a battle which could have a huge impact on this year’s scudetto race.
Today, I’ll look at all ten of this week’s matchups and try to find the best value for bettors. There are some great opportunities and plenty of money to be made. Let’s get started!
Sassuolo vs Milan
Odds – Home Win (3.65)
Away Win (2.00)
Milan have been struggling in the past couple of weeks. Despite a strong start to the season, the Rossoneri have failed to notch a win in their last three games – recording three draws against Cagliari, Atalanta, and Empoli. Gattuso’s side has been playing well, but they simply haven’t been able to capitalize on their chances.
On the other hand, Sassuolo have exceeded all expectations. The Neroverdi have notched 13 points in their last six games, putting them in third place in the Serie A. While they may not have had the hardest of schedules, it’s still an impressive result, and they look to be serious contenders for a Europa League spot this year.
Milan have never fared too well against Sassuolo, and the Neroverdi are undefeated in their last five matches at home. Sassuolo have all the weapons to trouble a middling Milan defense, and if they can get an early goal, I think they have what it takes to take down the Rossoneri.
Milan seem to be favorites for every match, but their form so far is far from impressive. This is great value for bettors, and I can very easily see Sassuolo sneaking out a draw or a win here.
Prediction: Sassuolo 2-1 Milan.
Roma vs Lazio
Odds – Home Win (2.35),
Away Win (2.90)
The Derby della Capitale is arguably Italy’s most heated rivalry. Simply put, these two teams hate each other, and they’ll both fight tooth and nail to grab a win on Saturday.
Lazio have won their last five games, and the Biancocelesti seem to finally have found their form. Their attack is finally clicking, and star striker Ciro Immobile has shown off his finishing skills more than once. Lazio’s slow start is now long gone, and they’ll be heading into this game on a hot streak.
Roma have struggled, and while they may have defeated Frosinone 4-0 on Wednesday, their loss to Bologna will still be fresh in their memory. The team simply hasn’t gelled together, and the solid midfield that Roma was known for is struggling to work together.
Roma may have the home field advantage this time around, but Lazio are looking like the better team. With the odds at 2.9, this is a great pick for bettors; Lazio will be more than excited to earn a victory against their city rivals, and they have a great chance at doing exactly that.
Prediction: Roma 1-2 Lazio.
Sampdoria vs SPAL
Odds – Home Win (1.70)
Away Win (4.90)
Sampdoria got off to a great start this season, but they’ve begun to cool off in recent weeks. Nevertheless, they remain huge favorites in this week’s matchup against SPAL. Despite three wins in their last four games, SPAL have looked poor recently losing badly to Fiorentina and Sassuolo without creating any real chances.
At 1.7, Sampdoria are undoubtedly the favorites, but I think the odds underestimate how lopsided this matchup is. SPAL is still relatively new to the Serie A, and they sport one of the weakest rosters in the league. Defrel and his attack will have plenty of opportunities to feast, and I don’t think this one will be close.
Prediction: Sampdoria 3-0 SPAL.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Odds – Home Win (2.35)
Away Win (3.00)
Despite qualifying for the Europa League last season, Atalanta seems to have been largely forgotten this season. With the addition of Duvan Zapata, Atalanta’s attack got a lot better. Papu Gomez leads the charge for Atalanta, and their attack remains one of the most underrated in the league.
Fiorentina may sit pretty at fifth in the Serie A, but in the matchups against higher level teams, they’ve struggled. The Viola have earned just one point in their games against Inter, Sampdoria, and Napoli, and Atalanta has just as many weapons as those teams. Fiorentina will certainly need to step up their game if they wish to defeat La Dea.
With the odds looking good at 3 to 1 for an Atalanta win, I think this matchup makes for excellent value. Fiorentina are not the team they once were, and Atalanta are always a dark horse, especially in top matchups like this. Gomez will be hungry to get on the score sheet, and I think his side has what it takes to win this one.
Prediction: Fiorentina 1-2 Atalanta.
If you didn’t see the matchup you’re interested in above, I’ve listed the remaining matchups below along with my personal picks. There are certainly some good opportunities here as well, so if you do some research, you’ll be able to find value.
Odds – Home Win (1.65)
Away Win (5.30)
Prediction: Juventus 3-2 Napoli
Odds – Home Win (1.28)
Away Win (10.50)
Prediction: Inter 3-0 Cagliari
Odds – Home Win (2.45)
Away Win (3.05)
Prediction: Bologna 2-1 Udinese
Odds – Home Win (3.45)
Away Win (2.10)
Prediction: Chievo 0-2 Torino
Odds – Home Win (3.15)
Away Win (2.95)
Prediction: Frosinone 1-3 Genoa
Odds – Home Win (2.15)
Away Win (3.30)
Prediction: Parma 2-0 Empoli
Extras – Other Opportunities Around The League
Goals Galore – Juve and Napoli
- Odds – Over 2.5 Goals (1.92)
- Over 3.5 Goals (3.45)
In the most highly anticipated matchup of the week, the league’s two best teams will face off in Turin. Juventus got the better of the Partenopei last season, winning yet another scudetto, and with Napoli eager for revenge, this should be a thrilling matchup.
Both teams have stellar defenses; Chiellini and Koulibaly are some of the most well-respected defenders in the world, and they’ll command the backline without fear. However, both teams also have some of the best attackers in Italian football. Cristiano Ronaldo is beginning to make his mark on the league, and Napoli’s deadly trio of Insigne, Callejon, and Mertens is always a force to be reckoned with.
In the 12 matches the teams have played so far, a total of 36 goals have been scored – averaging out to 3 goals a game. This game looks set to be a battle of offense; regardless of which attack prevails, there should be plenty of goals scored and lots of value for bettors.
Blucerchiati Dominance – Will It Be A Beatdown?
- Odds – Sampdoria -1 (3.1)
- Sampdoria -2 (6.5)
While SPAL have silenced some doubters so far this season, I still believe they are not a Serie A caliber team. They have some interesting talents, but their squad is far too inexperienced and raw to challenge the top sides.
In Sampdoria’s two victories, they’ve won by a margin of eight goals – defeating Napoli 3-0 and battering Frosinone by five goals. Sampdoria’s attack is surprisingly explosive, and once they get on a roll, they can be difficult to stop.
A one goal handicap means that Sampdoria need to win by two goals in order to triple the investment (a win by one goal would force a push and return the original bet). If you expect Sampdoria to win, this is an incredibly low-risk bet which could offer a lot of upside. Sampdoria have shown just how good they can be, and at home in Genoa, they’ll have the fans behind them.
The Italian Wonder – Insigne Gets A Chance To Shine
- Odds – 1 Goal (5.1)
- 2 Goals (28)
As noted before, Juve and Napoli look set to battle it out in a high-scoring affair. And with so many scoring chances to be passed around, Lorenzo Insigne is a name that can’t be counted out. The Italian winger has quickly risen to prominence, and he’s become one of Italy’s most lethal attacking threats.
He can do it all – create, destroy, score – and he’ll always make an impact on the match. With a total of five goals so far this season, Insigne could very well battle for the title of capocannoniere. He has all the weapons in the world at his disposal, and his blistering pace and quick thinking could trouble the veteran Bianconeri defense
At 5.1 to score a goal, Insigne offers great upside for what should be a game littered with attacking opportunities. All he needs is one chance, and this is my favorite pick of the week.
The Atalanta Attack – Gomez Leads The Charge
- Odds – Atalanta to Lead At Half Time & Win (4.75)
Many have doubted Atalanta, particularly in recent years, but they continue to show that they are a very solid team. Alejandro Gomez is one of Italy’s most talented wingers, and while he many never replicate the season he had just two years ago, he is still in command of Atlanta’s attack.
La Dea have struggled recently, but they can never be counted out. If they win this game, it will be because they strike early; they are known for their fastbreaks, and an early goal could be just what they need to get themselves ahead.