The Detroit Lions travel to Soldier Field on November 10, 2019, looking to pick up a win against their division rivals Chicago Bears.
Losing Close Games
The Detroit Lions’ playoff hopes are slowly dimming. The Lions are 3-4-1 SU on the season and they have lost four out of their last five games played. It’s not that the Lions have been very bad this season. They have been able to put up a fight in every game but they have lost close games because of poor defense.
Seven out of the Lions eight games have been decided by one touchdown or lesser, including three out of their four losses. Their defense has got to take much of the blame because Detroit allows the second-most yards per game and gives up the fifth-most points per game this season. Matthew Stafford is having a career-year in QB rating and leads the NFL in passing yards.
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/05/19
Bears Offensive Struggles
The Chicago Bears have seen themselves fall from contender to struggling team. The Bears won the NFC North last season with a 12-4 record. We are still in week 8 and the Bears have more losses already at this stage than they did the entire 2018 season. Unlike the Lions, the Bears’ defense has been fine. It’s their offense that has struggled out of the gates this year.
Their struggles on offense were on display in their last game against the Eagles. Chicago only had nine total offensive yards on 20 plays in the first half with only two first downs. One first down was earned on the ground while the other was via penalty. The Bears have not scored a point in any of their opening drives in the first 8 weeks of the season. They need a good start here or else they are going to kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
The Lions are 1-4 SU in their last five games played and 1-2-1 SU in their four road games played this season. Detroit is 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the NFC North Division. The Bears are 1-4 SU in their last five games played. Chicago is 1-3 SU in their last four games played, 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against the NFC Conference and 4-1 SU in their last five games in November. Head to head, the Lions are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bears.
Matthew Stafford is having a terrific season. He leads the NFL in 312.4 passing yards per game and he is having a career-high 106 quarterback rating this season. Stafford is also on pace to throw a personal-best 38 passing touchdowns this season. However, the Lions can’t seem to find ways to win games because their defense has failed them this season. They will have a good shot here against a Chicago team whose offense has stumbled as of late. Despite that, the Lions are the NFL betting underdogs against the Bears in this game.
The Bears had high hopes this year after a successful 2018 season and they had high hopes for Mitchell Trubisky as well. But heading to this contest, they have lost four straight games, both SU and ATS. Trubisky hasn’t just struggled, he’s struggled early as he has not scored in his eight opening drives to start the season. With their season and perhaps his job as a starter on the line here, I think he steps up against a Detroit defense that ranks next to last in yards allowed and fifth from the bottom in points given up. I’m picking the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions.
Other Bets to Make
Detroit is 1-3 ATS in their last four games played and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in November. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Bears are 1-3 ATS in four home games played this season and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against the NFC North Division. Head to head, the Bears are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Lions.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/05/19
The Lions have outscored the Bears by 2.4 points per game in their last 10 games played but Chicago has outscored Detroit by 3.0 points per game in their last three meetings. Seven out of the Lions’ eight games this season have been decided by seven points or less so this is a team that keeps it close but just couldn’t pull off victories despite Matthew Stafford having a terrific season. Chicago’s offense has been struggling and if this spread gets to over a field goal, I will take the Lions. However, anything below three points should be Chicago’s.
Prediction: Bears -2.5
The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Lions. The over is 3-1 in Detroit’s four road games played this season. The total has gone under in 10 out of the last 13 games played by the Bears. Chicago has seen the total go under in six out of their last seven games played at home. Head to head, these teams have seen the total go under in six out of their last 10 games played.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/05/19
These teams have combined to score 44.4 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 42.66 points per game in their last three encounters. Detroit has gone over the 42 total in each of their last six games played while the Bears have played under the 42 total in three out of their last four games played. Chicago’s offense has sputtered this season but they have a chance to stay alive against a Detroit team that allows the fifth-most points per game. I think the Bears win this with defense but Trubisky is going to score enough points to win. I like the teams to go under here.
Prediction: Under 42