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The 14th ranked Wildcats of Kentucky will take on the 12th ranked Nittany Lions square off in this year’s WRBO Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
The Wildcats won their last two assignments including a 56-10 shellacking of Louisville in their season finale. The win earned Kentucky the Commonwealth Cup. Meanwhile, the Penn State Nittany Lions won five out of their last six games including their last three games. The Nittany Lions blasted Maryland 38-3 in their final regular season game.
Double Digit Win Season
The Kentucky Wildcats are one win away from their first double digit win season since 1977. The Wildcats finished their season with wins over Middle Tennessee State and Louisville to close their campaign with back to back victories. Their trouncing of Louisville gave them the Commonwealth Cup and their ninth iwin
Quarterback Terry Wilson has thrown fo 1,768 passing yards with 11 scores and 8 picks. Wilson also has four rushing touchdowns and a total of 518 rushing yards on the season. Benny Snell Jr. has rushed for 1,305 yards with 14 touchdowns while Lynn Bowden Jr has 661 receiving
Kentucky vs Penn State 1/1/19
Moneyline Odds: Kentucky +205, Penn State -245
Odds from betonline.ag as of 12/26/18
A Rough Midseason
The Penn State Nittany Lions had a rough patch during the middle of the season as they lost three of five games at one point, with losses to Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. But after their 42-7 drubbing at the hands of the Wolverines, the Nittany Lions won their last three games entering this contest. Now Penn State has a chance to salvage their season with a victory at the Citrus Bowl.
Trace McSorley has thrown for 2,285 passing yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. McSorley has also rushed for 723 yards with 11 touchdowns. Miles Sanders leads the ground game with 1,223 yards and 9 touchdowns while KJ Hamler has caught a total of 714 yards with six touchdowns.
Who Wins?
Kentucky had a 9-3 SU season and the Wildcats are 3-2 SU in their last five games played. Penn State also had a 9-3 SU season and the Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. For whatever it’s worth, these teams have met just once before, in 1999, with Penn State winning 26-14.
Both teams deserve credit for being able to finish strong after a shaky midseason. Penn State has several playmakers on offense but this season, they have not been able to live up to expectations. The Wildcats are having their best season in years and have split their last dozen games as underdogs by at least three points. The Nittany Lions held their last three opponents to an average of 6.33 point in their final three games played. Penn State has covered eight out of 12 games as underdogs by at least three points.
Penn State is favored here but since it’s Bowl season, it sometimes goes down to desire and in this game, Kentucky will want it more because they have not tasted this kind of success in years (even decades). I also think that Kentucky is the more experienced team in this game and Penn State has been inconsistent all season.
We’re picking the Kentucky Wildcats to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions on 1/1/19.
Other Bets To Make
The Wildcats were 5-7 ATS in 12 games played this season. Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played. The Nittany Lions were 7-5 ATS in a dozen games played this season. Penn State is 3-2 ATS in their last five games played.
Kentucky vs Penn State 1/1/19
Moneyline Odds: Kentucky +6.5 (-109), Penn State -6.5 (-111)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 12/26/18
Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in their last five games on fieldturf. The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral venue. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played at a neutral venue and 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 overall games. As stated earlier, Kentucky wants this more than Penn State and that desire is going to fuel their defense to make stops and get scores to win this game outright. I’ll take the underdogs and the plus 6.5 here.
Prediction: Kentucky +6.5
The under was 7-5 in Kentucky’s games played this season. The total has gone under in six out of the last nine games played by the Wildcats. The over and under were at an even 6-6 in Penn State’s 12 games played this season. The under is 4-1 in the Nittany Lions’ last five games played.
Kentucky vs Penn State 1/1/19
Over/Under Odds: Over 47.5 -110, Under 47.5 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 12/26/18
The under is 4-0 in the Wildcats’ last four bowl games and 6-1 in their last seven games in a neutral venue. Meanwhile, the under is also 5-1 in the Nittany Lions’ last six games versus the SEC. Kentucky is a team that relies on its defense and is content with playing for field position. Penn State has the ability to shut down the run and in their last three games played, they allowed just a combined 20 points. I think this goes down to who plays better defense.
Prediction: Under 47.5
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