The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks head to Game 5 in Dallas on Monday night with the series tied at 2-2.
Utah produced a stunning comeback in the final 39.6 seconds of the game to turn a four-point deficit into a one-point win. Had the Jazz lost the game, they would have been down 3-1 heading to this contest. Dallas started the series without Doncic in the first three games but instead of capitalizing, Utah fell behind 2-1 as they could not stop Jalen Brunson. Fortunately for Utah, the gods smiled at them in Game 4 and now they need to beat the Mavs again as they did in Game 1 in Dallas. It won’t be easy this time though with Doncic back and seemingly in deadly form as we saw in Game 4.
The Jazz snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Game 4. Despite the win, Utah didn’t play well as they shot only 43% from the floor and just 10/35 or 28.5% from three-point distance. The Jazz were also a horrendous 62% from the foul line and was indeed lucky to pull off the Game 4 win. If they want to win again in Game 5, we need to see the Jazz team that scored an average of 113.5 points per game during the regular season and shot the ball at a 47% clip which ranked 6th overall in the league before the postseason.
Utah’s defense has looked tough in this series. Except for Gam 3 where they got bombed with 126 points, the Jazz have allowed an average of 101 points per game in the other three games of the series. To do that again in Game 5, they must assert their might off the glass to prevent the Mavs from getting second-chance points. In case you forgot, the Jazz were the top defensive rebounding team during the regular season.
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/25/2022
The Mavericks let one slip away in Game 4 but they must not cry over spilled milk but instead look ahead at the remaining three games of the series, two of which will be played at their home stadium Game 5 will be in Dallas and it will be a big chance for the Mavs to take a 3-2 lead and get a twice-to-beat advantage in the final two games of the series. The Dallas defense has also shown out in the series, holding Utah to an average of 105 points per game. They need to keep up that defensive intensity and avoid the mental errors they made in Game 4 if they want to survive this tough series.
Just like Utah, Dallas struggled to shoot in Game 4 as they made less than 43% of their field goal attempts during the game. Still, it was a good sign that Luka Doncic put up 30 points in his first game back from injury. The Mavericks will need more Luka Magic the rest of the way if they are to beat the Jazz in this series. Doncic is a player who likes to play big when the lights are brightest. Expect him to have another big game here.
Utah is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Jazz are 2-2 SU in their last four road games and 1-4 SU in their last five Monday games.
Dallas is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played. The Jazz are 7-1 SU in their last eight games played at home, and 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played against the Western Conference.
Head to head, Dallas Mavericks have won four out of the last six meetings between these two teams. Dallas is also 4-1 SU in their last five home games against Utah Jazz.
The Jazz are lucky to come out of Game 4 with a 2-2 tie. Doncic looked like he had a storybook finish to his first game in the 2022 NBA Playoffs when he hit that huge three-pointer with 39.6 seconds left that gave the Mavs a 99-95 lead. Prior to that game, only four teams have rallied from a similar four-point deficit in the final 40 seconds of an NBA playoffs game. But the Jazz did, with the help of the Mavs of course.
Doncic gave up a foul and a three-point play by Donovan Mitchell then Dwight Powell missed two free throws in their next play to give Utah the chance for that final play – a lob to Rudy Gobert who had been a liability on the court for most of the series. The Mavs still had a chance to win the game after those blunders but Dinwiddie’s three-pointer was hurried and missed the mark.
Despite the brutal Game 4 collapse, the Mavs are happy to come out of Game 4 with a split. Dallas played the first three games of the series with Doncic on the injured list but now he’s back and he looked fantastic in Game 4. Knowing Doncic, he’s ready to deliver another big-time game in Game 5, and with the series down to a best-of-three, you know Doncic will come up big in the biggest of games.
The Jazz won Game 4 but that was far from a worthy performance that will enable them to topple the Mavs in this series. With Doncic back, Dallas should be back as favorites to win this series. They are already favorites to win Game 5 and I think they will emerge victorious.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Other Bets to Make
The Jazz are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games played. Utah is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games played on the road, 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS loss, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win, 10-27-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last four games as betting underdogs, 0-4 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day rest, and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as betting underdogs.
The Mavs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as betting favorites, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on one day rest, 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight up loss, 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played at home.
Head to head, the Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played against the Jazz. Dallas is also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/25/2022
Despite Luka’s return, the Mavs shot just 43% from the field and scored just 99 points. Still, it was Doncic who hit that late triple that gave them the 99-95 lead before blowing the game. Utah didn’t play well either but go the breaks down the stretch and did just enough to pull off the win.
Game 5 will be Doncic’s first home playoff game this season and he is a player who loves to show up when the lights are brightest. No other game could be brighter and bigger than Game 5 with the winner getting a twice-to-beat advantage in the final two games of the series.
The Mavericks’ supporting cast did their job in forcing a 2-2 tie with Doncic missing the first three games of the series with an injury. With Doncic back and looking to prove himself again on the big stage, look for the Mavs to play at a higher gear here.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -3
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Jazz. The under is 4-2 in their last six games against the Western Conference, 6-3 in their last nine games against the Southwest Division, 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent scored more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five Monday games, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight up win, 21-8-1 in their last 30 games when playing on one day rest, and 11-3 in their last 14 road games.
The total has gone under in 7 out of the Mavericks’ last nine games against the Northwest Division. The under is 4-1 in their last five Monday games, 5-2 in their last seven games as home favorites, 5-2 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning record, 16-7 in their last 23 home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 5-2 in their last seven home games when playing on one day rest, 4-2 in their last six home playoff games after an ATS win, 4-2 in their last six home playoff games when their opponent scores 100 or more point in their previous game, and 47-20-1 in their last 68 home games.
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/25/2022
This is one series that is tough to read. In Games 1 and 4, these teams combined to score less than 200 points. Meanwhile, they combined for 244 in Game 2 and 214 in Game 3 with the over/under record for this series being an even 2-2. Looking at the betting trends, most point to the under.
These teams rank 5th and 6th among the 16 playoff teams in opponent points per game allowed. If you add their total, these teams allow a combined average of 212.3 points per game in the playoffs which is just right below our total of 212.5.
Doncic’s return may make it seem like the Mavs will be scoring more points in this game but not necessarily. Remember that Luka had 30 in Game 4 and the Mavs scored only 99 points so having Doncic isn’t a given. What’s given though is that both these teams will need a strong defensive effort to beat the other. This is the playoffs and no matter how high-scoring teams can be, most playoff games go down to who plays better defense.
Prediction: Under 212.5