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It will be a battle between offense and defense when the Jacksonville Jaguars play the Kansas City Chiefs at the Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Jaguars (3-1) and Chiefs (4-0) are currently the top two teams in the AFC. Jacksonville is coming off a 31-12 home win over the New York Jets last week while the Chiefs are fresh off a 27-23 road win over the Denver Broncos.
Jacksonville’s success can be attributed largely to their defensive unit which is considered the best in the league right now. On the other hand, the Chiefs have stayed unbeaten because of a high scoring offense powered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is playing the best football of any quarterback in the league right now.
Top Defensive Unit
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the top defensive unit in the league this season. Through four games, Jacksonville has only yielded a league best three touchdown passes and just seven pass plays of 20 yards or more, second best in the NFL behind the Washington Redskins.
The Jaguars’ defensive unit ranks first in points allowed (14 points per game) and first in passing defense (164.2 passing yards allowed) so there’s no question that Jacksonville has the defense to stop the rampaging Chiefs. But the question for Jacksonville is if they can put up the points to get the win? The answer lies in Jaguars’ QB Blake Bortles who so far has played well for his team.
Bortles is completing 64.7% of his passes for a total of 1,095 passing yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bortles is coming off a strong performance against the Jets where he threw for 388 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Although Bortles has alternated good and bad games this season, he shouldn’t find too much trouble against a Chiefs pass defense that is second to the last in the NFL (328 passing yards per game allowed).
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/07/18
Moneyline Odds: Jaguars +126, Chiefs -146
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 10/05/18
Still Undefeated
The Kansas City Chiefs have played four games this season and they are still undefeated. Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams are the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL at 4-0.
The Chiefs’ success is largely attributed to the record breaking start by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes broke the all-time NFL mark with 13 touchdowns through the first three games of the season. After four games, Mahomes has thrown a total of 14 scores without an interception. The 23 year old quarterback has already accumulated an impressive 1200 yards.
Tyreek Hill has been explosive with 307 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 23 receptions. Pro-baller Travis Kelce has 307 receiving yards and three scores while Kareem Hunt leads the Kansas City running game with 271 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Mahomes hopes that the weapons around him will hold against the airtight Jacksonville defense.
Who Wins?
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in their last seven games but just 7-15 in their last 22 games on the road. On the other hand, Kansas City is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games and 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, Kansas City has won four out of the last six meetings between these teams including the last three.
Mahomes has been nothing short of spectacular to open the season. But he and his Chiefs will face their toughest challenge so far when they take on the league’s best defensive team. I always prefer good defense over good offense. I’m taking the road dogs and the plus money here.
Prediction: Jaguars +126
Other Bets To Make
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. The Chiefs meanwhile are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at home. Against each other, the Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/07/18
Spread Odds: Jaguars +3 (-120), Chiefs -3 (+100)
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 105/05/18
Mahomes is playing almost flawless football so far for Kansas City and while they have stayed undefeated, the Chiefs have been winning only by an average margin of 7.5 points per game. Sure, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games but the fact they’ve “barely’ gotten wins despite playing their best football says something.
Jacksonville has undoubtedly the best defense in the NFL right now and while it’s hard not to believe in Mahomes after five incredible games, you’ve got to wonder if the law of averages will catch up with him soon. How soon? Perhaps against the top defensive team in the league in the Jaguars.
The Jaguars’ defense is relentless and brutal and it’s interesting to see if Mahomes can keep up his pace against them. My bet is not. The Chiefs are also looking ahead at their matchup with the Patriots next week so there’s a good chance they’re going to blink this week.
Prediction: Jaguars +3
The total has gone under in six out of the Jaguars last nine games on the road. The over is 4-2 in Kansas City’s last six games but the total has gone under in five of their last six games at home with an average combined score of 43.33 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/07/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 49 (-110), Under 49 (-110)
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 10/05/18
The Chiefs are the top scoring team in the NFL right now but remember that the four opponents they beat rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. On the other hand, the Jaguars are tops in the league in pass defense, allowing just 164 yards per game. I expect Jacksonville’s dreaded secondary to tame Mahomes and the Chiefs in this game.
Prediction: Under 49
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