The Indianapolis Colts travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action as the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs begins on January 12, 2019.

Under The Radar

After a rough 1-5 start to their season, the Indianapolis Colts have flown under the radar to reach the Divisional Round of the playoffs.The Colts finished hot as they won nine out of their last 10 games to enter the wild card game. In that game, the Colts went to NRG Stadium to beat the Houston Texans 21-7. Now the Colts look to continue rolling as they take on the Chiefs.

Indianapolis’ turnaround began with running back Marlon Mack getting healthy. The Colts’ offense was averaging 23.6 points per game in the first five weeks of the season. Since then, with Mack having a clean bill of health, the Colts have been 10-2 SU and averaging 28 points per game. Quarterback Andrew Luck ranked second to Patrick Mahomes in touchdowns with 39. Luck also ranked 6th in the league with 287 passing yards per game.


What’re the Odds?

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/12/19
Moneyline Odds: Colts +205, Chiefs -240
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 1/8/19


The Kansas City Offense

The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game as the #1 seed in the AFC after finishing the regular season with a 12-4 SU record overall and 7-1 SU record at home. The Chiefs torched their opponents with their league leading 35.3 points per game. The offense was led by second year quarterback  Patrick Mahomes who threw for a remarkable 5,097 passing yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions during the regular season.

That offense carried the Chiefs this season as their defense wasn’t as great and wasn’t even good. Kansas City allowed the second most passing yards per game in the league at 273.4 and gave up the 9th most points per game at 26. Because of their defensive limitations, the Chiefs will need Mahomes to come up big again to win this game.

Who Wins?

The Colts are 5-0 SU in their last five games played and Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in their last five games on the road. The Chiefs are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games played and 7-1 SU in their last eight games played at home. Head to head, Indianapolis is 13-3 SU in their last 13 meetings against Kansas City and the Colts are 7-1 SU in their last seven games against the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Kansas City has put together a great season because of great offense. However, they have not played as great defensively, especially against the pass. Kansas City was next to last in passing yards per game allowed at 273.4 and against the QB who finished second to Mahomes in touchdowns scored, that could be a problem for the Chiefs.

Indianapolis has put together a remarkable run to finish the regular season. Nobody noticed them back then but after beating the Texans, people are realizing how good this team is. Andrew Luck should hold his own against Mahomes and the Colts defense should be able to limit that Kansas City Offense.

Betting Prediction

The Chiefs are only 1-10 SU in their last 11 playoff games dating back to 1994. This is Mahomes’ first playoff game while Luck has been there and done that. I’m not saying that the Colts are going to win outright but they will surely keep this one close. The Chiefs won games without being a consistent ATS winner. I think the home team wins outright but probably by a hair line.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -240

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Other Bets To Make

Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played and also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Kansas City is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games played and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Head to head, the Colts are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings against the Chiefs and 7-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Kansas City.

What’re the Odds?

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/12/19
Spread Odds: Colts +5 (-109), Chiefs -5 (-109)
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 1/8/19


Betting Prediction

The Colts threw for the 6th most passing yards per game and allowed the fewest sacks per game this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were second to the last in passing yards allowed, If Luck can buy time, he is going to pick apart the Kansas City defense here. The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games but only 4-4 ATS over that period. Kansas City hasn’t fared well ATS as it has SU so I’ll take my plus points here.

Prediction: Colts +5

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The total has gone under in six out of the last eight games of the Colts. The under is also 9-4 in Indianapolis’ last 13 road games. The total has gone over in five of Kansas City’s last seven games played but under in 10 out of the last 13 home games played by the Chiefs. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

What’re the Odds?

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/12/19
Over/Under Odds: Over 57 -109, Under 57 -109
Odds from gtbets.eu as of 1/8/19


Betting Prediction

The under has hit in five out of the last eight home games for the Chiefs but remember they played teams with mediocre to bad offense in most of these games. Likewise, the under was in play in six out the last eight games by Indianapolis but likewise, these games were played against teams like the Jaguars, Dolphins and Titans. When the Colts played the Patriots, the total went over. These are two Top 10 offensive teams and Kansas City has used offense, not defense to win. This is going to be a shootout.

Prediction: Over 57

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