Day 1 is over, and we came out okay. I came out of the day up by 64, which isn’t bad considering I whiffed on two picks. I broke one of my biggest rules, which is don’t bet on a team without a superstar to clutch out a big match. The Vega game was decided by just a round or two, and though I was right about the game going over 26.5 rounds, I was wrong about the winner. Hopefully this set of games goes better.
As always, all odds are from Betway, although you can bet at any of our recommended sites:
NRG (-250) – TyLoo (+175)
This is probably the bet I feel the most nervous about. I had NRG as a lock to make it out of this stage, and I’m still really impressed. Ethan looks like a superstar all of a sudden, and it’s taking a big load off CeRq which gives him even more room to work, which helps enable the rest of the team, etc.
TyLoo, on the other hand, were not a team I had big expectations for. There’s always a team from a smaller region that pops off at the Major, I just didn’t think it would be them. Luckily for the Chinese squad, summer is having a great tournament, BnTeT is playing well (with room for a step up in a big series like this), and they were able to shut down Cloud9 convincingly in their second BO1.
This will be a best-of-three, which does make me a little nervous considering the shallowness of TyLoo’s map pool, although they actually match up fairly well with NRG. The biggest danger for TyLoo is ending up on Dust 2, unless they plan on busting out a surprise Nuke pick.
Pick: I’m going to put $50 of my now $1,064 down on TyLoo taking the series.
G2 (-154) – Avangar (+110)
I do not trust G2, at all. They got decimated by ENCE in their 1-0 match, and I can’t imagine they’ll come out of the gates ready to go against Avangar. They’d already had problems with a CIS team in this tournament, squeaking out a win over Vega with the thinnest margins possible, 16-14 ending on a 3v3 clutch on the T side.
Avangar will likely smell the same blood that attracted the sharks of Vega and could make quick work of G2. The Frenchmen will be playing off the back foot after their loss to ENCE, and it’ll be a best-of-one.
I don’t see a map that G2 has a clear-cut advantage on either. At least, not one that they’ll end up playing in a BO1. I would guess Cache, although it’s tough to tell. This certainly wouldn’t be a boon to G2, as it would let Avangar play hyper aggressively all throughout the map, keeping in the strong tradition of teams being beaten by CIS squads on Cache at the Major (sorry NiP).
Pick: $100 on Avangar
I’ve got one, and then an additional crazier one again for you today. The first one is:
ENCE (-258) & Spirit – Furia over 26.5 rounds (-143) | +229
I think ENCE is the best team we’ve seen so far. They dumpstered G2 and put Spirit in the dirt, and Aerial didn’t even show up for their first BO1. The combo of Aerial, sergej, and allu is one of the best trios at the Major, and I don’t think Renegades has a real shot at taking this one home.
Furia and Spirit are two of the least experienced teams at the event. One of the things you can count on inexperienced teams to do, every time, is play sloppy and choke. I think whichever way this game swings, it’s going to come down to the wire.
Which leads me to my second, crazier parlay:
ENCE (-258) & Spirit – Furia Overtime (+300) | +540
That +540 looks juicy.