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The Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz renew their rivalry on Monday night at the Vivint Smart Home Arena for Game 4 of their first round series.
Winning Despite Harden’s Struggles
Despite James Harden starting Game 3 on 0-15 shooting, the Houston Rockets still managed to defeat the Utah Jazz 104-101 to take a 3-0 lead in their first round playoff series. Harden would finish the game shooting 3-20 from the floor, 2-13 from behind the three point area and 14-16 from the foul line. Still, he finished with 22 points to put Houston on the cusp of advancing to Round 2 of the 2019 NBA playoffs.
Harden has been stellar during the regular season and in the first two games of the series. He averaged a league-high 36.1 points per game during the regular season and averaged to score 30.5 points per game in the first two games of the series. He picked the Jazz #2 rated defense apart in Games 1 & 2 and found ways to beat them again in Game 3.
Rockets
-140
Jazz
+120
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 4/22/19
Mitchell Also Struggled
What helped Houston win was the fact that Utah’s super sophomore Donovan Mitchell also struggled in Game 3 by shooting 9-27 from the field despite finishing with 34 points. Mitchell made five out of his first six shots from the floor but struggled the rest of the way, even missing 11 consecutive baskets at one point.
The Jazz defense was torched for an average of 120 points per game in the first two games of the series. Utah vowed to play better and more aggressive defense at home in Game 3 and they did. However, they could not put the clamps on Harden when they needed to do it most, allowing Harden to score 14 points in the final period.
Who Wins?
Houston is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played. The Rockets are 3-1 SU in their last four games away from the Toyota Center. Utah is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Jazz are 4-1 SU in their last five home games. Houston is 8-1 SU in their last nine games as favorites while Utah is 0-3 SU in their last three games as underdogs. Head to head, the Rockets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against the Jazz.
This was supposed to be one of the marquee matchups of the first round but after three games, it’s hard to find a reason to back the Jazz. After getting blown out by at least 20 points in the first two games of the series, the Jazz could not win Game 3 despite the Rockets shooting just 38% from the floor and James Harden having an off-game.
Utah hasn’t been able to find ways to stop James Harden. Sure, they limited him to 3-20 shooting in Game 3 but remember that the reigning MVP still finished with 14 points in the fourth period and made three out of his last five shots after starting 0-15. To think that was a rare slump for Harden and the Jazz still lost is something to think about.
The Beard averaged 30.5 points per game in the first two games of the series and still scored 22 points on an off-night in Game 3. Unless the Jazz can find a way to neutralize Harden for 48 straight minutes, they are going to have a hard time winning games in this series. With Harden coming from an off night, expect him to shoot better in Game 4. That’s bad news for the Jazz.
Personally, I thought Utah’s defense was going to give the Rockets a run for their money. But after how they got annihilated in Games 1 and 2 plus the fact that they could not pull off Game 3 despite having the Rockets right where they wanted to, it’s really difficult to sell them in Game 4. With rest in mind in a series with the defending champions Golden State Warriors, I think Houston goes for the series and win via sweep on Monday.
I’m picking the Houston Rockets to beat the Utah Jazz in Game 4 of their first round playoff series.
Other Bets To Make
The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Houston is 3-1 ATS in their last four games played on the road. The Jazz are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played and Utah is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Jazz.
Rockets
-2.5 (-110)
Jazz
+2.5 (-110)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 4/22/19
The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinals games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one-day rest and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one-day rest, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a Monday and 0-5 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinals games. Historically, Houston is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in Utah and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings overall. Bring those brooms as we have the second sweep of the day and of the 2019 playoffs.
Prediction: Houston Rockets -2.5
The under is 5-3-2 in the Rockets’ last 10 games played. Houston has seen the total go under in 24 out of 42 total road games played this season. The total has gone under in 44 out of the 85 total games played by the Jazz this season. The under is 3-2 in Milwaukee’s last five games played at home. Head to head, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 games between the Rockets and Jazz.
Rockets
O 213 -110
Jazz
U 213 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 4/22/19
The under is 16-6-1 in the Rockets’ last 23 games overall and the total has gone under in eight out of the Jazz’s last 11 home games played. The under is 2-0-1 in the first three games of the series and the Jazz have averaged just 96.33 points per game in this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets have scored an average of 114.66 points per game in the series. Houston’s defense has improved since late in the regular season. The Jazz are having problems scoring the ball in this series. I think this one’s going under as well.
Prediction: Under 213
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