Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers 7/11/19 MLB Odds, Preview and Pick

The Houston Astros take on the Texas Rangers at the Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas on Thursday, July 11, 2019,  in an AL West matchup that kicks off the second half of the 2019 MLB season.

The Astros won their ninth game in their last dozen games with a walk-off victory over the Angels last Sunday. Houston entered the break with a 7.5 lead over the Oakland Athletics in the race for the American League West. The Astros are the baseball betting favorites to beat the Rangers in Game 1 of their current series on Thursday.

Framber Valdez will open on top of the hill for the Astros. Valdez has five starts in 19 appearances and has a record of 3-4 with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.368. Valdez has a total of 19 walks and 41 strikeouts in a total of 45.1 innings of pitch work this season. In his last outing, Valdez took the loss as he allowed six runs on eight hits during a 2-14 loss to the Pirates last June 26.

The Texas Rangers sputtered to the All-Star break with six losses in seven games before emerging victorious in their series finale against the Minnesota Twins. Texas heads to this game trailing the Astros by nine games in the AL West team standings The Rangers are also three games behind the Indians for the second wild-card spot.

Lance Lynn will take the mound for the Rangers. He comes in with a stellar record of 11-4 in 19 appearances with an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.217. Lynn has allowed just 26 walks with 126 strikeouts in a total of 115 innings. In his last outing, Lynn allowed just two runs on nine hits in seven innings of work and got the win against the Angels last July 4th. Lynn is 7-1 SU in his last 10 starts.

Who Wins?

The Astros are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played and 2-0 SU in their last two games played on the road. The Rangers are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played and 1-2 SU in their last three games played at home. Head to head, Houston is 4-1 SU in their last five games against Texas but the Astros are 1-4 SU in their last five road games against the Rangers.

Houston is 39-12 SU in their last 51 games against the AL West, 49-19 SU in their last 68 Game 1s of a series and 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage higher than .600. The Astros are also 39-19 SU in their last 58 games overall but are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 Thursday games. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games after an off day, 4-1 SU in their last five Thursday games and 4-0 SU in Lynns last four starts. Texas is also 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record.

Lynn has been impressive in his last 20 starts as he has posted an ERA of 2.81 with just nine walks and 79 strikeouts in 67.1 innings of pitch work. The Astros have plenty of talent on their lineup but Lynn has been pitching well as of late and he’s pitched well against the Astros, going 4-2 with an ERA of 2.20 in eight career appearances against them. I’m picking the Texas Rangers to beat the Houston Astros on 7/11/19

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Other Bets To Make

Houston is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Astros are 2-0 ATS in their last two games played on the road. Texas is also 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Rangers are 1-2 ATS in their last three games played at home.

The Astros have outscored the Rangers by an average of 1.6 runs per game in their last 10 games played and 6.67 runs per game in their last three games played. Four out of Houston’s last six wins have come by one run while Texas’ last four wins and their last 10 games overall have been decided by two or more runs. I think the Rangers win this game anyway. Prediction: Rangers +1.5

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The over is 5-4-1 in the Astros’ last 10 games played. The total has gone over in Houston’s last two games on the road. The over is 5-2 in Texas’ last seven games played and 2-1 in their last three games at home. Head to head, the over is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

The total has gone over in Houston’s last four games when their opponent allows two or fewer runs in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning record of .600 or higher, 4-2 in their last six Thursday games and 7-3-2 in their last dozen games after a victory. The over is 4-1 in Texas’ last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or higher, 22-8-1 in their last 31 games following an off day. The over is also 6-3 in the Rangers’ last nine games against AL West teams and 13-6 in their last 19 games played in the month of July.

Valdez has struggled with an ERA of 5.09 in 17.2 innings pitched away from home while the Rangers have been averaging 5.65 runs per game at Globe Life Park. This one goes over the number with Valdez pitching against the Rangers in Texas. Prediction: Over 11.5

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